Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 12/09, 15:00

Prediction: AIK vs Vasteras SK

Team pages: AIK · Vasteras SK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

AIK1.69

Vasteras SK1.28

1X2

46% 26% 28%

AIK Draw Vasteras SK

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

AIK 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWWDLWWW

Vasteras SK 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWDWLWLDWL

Head-to-head

AIK 3–1–2 Vasteras SK (6 last)

AIK3-2Vasteras SK
Vasteras SK1-1AIK
AIK0-2Vasteras SK
AIK1-2Vasteras SK
Vasteras SK1-2AIK
AIK1-0Vasteras SK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AIK 1570 · Vasteras SK 1525

	AIK	Draw	Vasteras SK
Our model	46%	26%	28%
Market	46%	26%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AIK (rating 1570 vs 1525).
H2H favours AIK: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AIK	Vasteras SK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.5	1.1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.8	1.8 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.60

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1%

Time*	1	X	2
10:10 +5’	2.00	3.60	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · AIK 3–1–2 Vasteras SK

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
28/06/26 Club Friendly List	AIK	3-2 HT 2-1	Vasteras SK
17/05/26 Sweden Allsvenskan	Vasteras SK	1-1 HT 1-1	AIK
22/02/26 Sweden Cup	AIK	0-2 HT 0-2	Vasteras SK
10/10/24 Club Friendly List	AIK	1-2 HT 0-1	Vasteras SK
03/08/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Vasteras SK	1-2 HT 1-2	AIK
01/04/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	AIK	1-0 HT 0-0	Vasteras SK

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sirius	20	14	3	3	48	27	45
2	Hammarby	20	11	4	5	45	19	37
3	Djurgarden	19	11	2	6	43	19	35
4	BK Hacken	20	8	8	4	33	29	32
5	Elfsborg	20	8	7	5	28	21	31
6	AIK	18	9	4	5	28	27	31
7	Malmo FF	19	9	2	8	33	30	29
8	Vasteras SK	20	8	5	7	28	34	29
9	GAIS	20	7	6	7	25	18	27
10	Brommapojkarna	20	7	6	7	29	32	27
11	IFK Goteborg	19	6	5	8	24	39	23
12	Mjällby AIF	18	5	5	8	24	29	20
13	Kalmar FF	19	5	4	10	21	29	19
14	Degerfors	20	5	4	11	19	31	19
15	Orgryte IS	20	3	6	11	23	43	15
16	Halmstad	20	2	5	13	13	37	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AIK	Vasteras SK
Djurgarden	3-1 W	1-0 W
Orgryte IS	4-3 W	2-0 W
BK Hacken	0-0 D	3-1 W
Mjällby AIF	2-1 W	0-0 D
Sirius	0-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Vasteras SK (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AIK

WLWWWDLWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	1-2	3-2	1	5	W
16/08	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	3-0	3-1	1	6	W
08/08	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	1-2	4-3	4	3	W
02/08	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-2	0-3	5	3	L
27/07	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
18/07	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
11/07	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	2-1	2	4	W
05/07	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	2-1	7	2	W
30/05	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	0-2	0-3	9	7	L
24/05	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	2-1	4	6	W

Vasteras SK

WWDWLWLDWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	8	2	L
29/08	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	3-1	3	4	W
23/08	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
14/08	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-3	2	4	L
10/08	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
03/08	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-3	0-6	1	3	L
24/07	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
17/07	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
12/07	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-0	1	8	W
04/07	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	3-1	8	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AIK vs Vasteras SK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AIK win (46%). Probabilities: AIK 46%, draw 26%, Vasteras SK 28%.

How many goals are expected in AIK vs Vasteras SK?

The model expects 2.97 goals (AIK 1.69 · Vasteras SK 1.28), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in AIK vs Vasteras SK?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.