Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 13/09, 16:30

Prediction: Malmo FF vs Orgryte IS

Team pages: Malmo FF · Orgryte IS

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.22Total

Malmo FF2.33

Orgryte IS0.89

1X2

69% 19% 12%

Malmo FF Draw Orgryte IS

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Malmo FF 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWDLWLWLW

Orgryte IS 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LWDLWLLDLD

Head-to-head

Malmo FF 0–1–0 Orgryte IS (1 last)

Orgryte IS1-1Malmo FF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Malmo FF 1557 · Orgryte IS 1464

	Malmo FF	Draw	Orgryte IS
Our model	69%	19%	12%
Market	69%	18%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 3.22 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Malmo FF (rating 1557 vs 1464).
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Malmo FF	Orgryte IS
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.2	1.3 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.3	2.1 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	2.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.33

X5.00

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.90

2 (+1.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4%

Time*	1	X	2
12:16 +7’	1.33	5.00	7.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Malmo FF 0–1–0 Orgryte IS

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 Sweden Allsvenskan	Orgryte IS	1-1 HT 0-0	Malmo FF

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sirius	20	14	3	3	48	27	45
2	Hammarby	20	11	4	5	45	19	37
3	Djurgarden	19	11	2	6	43	19	35
4	BK Hacken	20	8	8	4	33	29	32
5	Elfsborg	20	8	7	5	28	21	31
6	AIK	18	9	4	5	28	27	31
7	Malmo FF	19	9	2	8	33	30	29
8	Vasteras SK	20	8	5	7	28	34	29
9	GAIS	20	7	6	7	25	18	27
10	Brommapojkarna	20	7	6	7	29	32	27
11	IFK Goteborg	19	6	5	8	24	39	23
12	Mjällby AIF	18	5	5	8	24	29	20
13	Kalmar FF	19	5	4	10	21	29	19
14	Degerfors	20	5	4	11	19	31	19
15	Orgryte IS	20	3	6	11	23	43	15
16	Halmstad	20	2	5	13	13	37	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Malmo FF	Orgryte IS
Djurgarden	0-3 L	0-0 D
Brommapojkarna	2-1 W	1-3 L
Kalmar FF	2-2 D	0-3 L
IFK Goteborg	4-0 W	0-1 L
Halmstad	5-2 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Malmo FF (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Malmo FF

WWWDLWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
24/08	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-3	3	6	L
16/08	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
09/08	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	1-2	5	4	L
02/08	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	2-1	3	7	W
26/07	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	1-2	1-2	5	6	L
20/07	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-2	2-2	5	3	D
12/07	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	3-0	4-0	7	3	W
04/07	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
30/05	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	2-2	5-2	4	1	W

Orgryte IS

LWDLWLLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
30/08	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
22/08	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	1-1	3	2	D
16/08	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	1-3	7	3	L
08/08	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	3-4	3	3	L
02/08	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	3-0	2	3	W
24/07	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-2	5	1	L
20/07	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
11/07	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	1-2	4-3	5	4	W
05/07	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-3	4	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Malmo FF vs Orgryte IS?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Malmo FF win (69%). Probabilities: Malmo FF 69%, draw 19%, Orgryte IS 12%.

How many goals are expected in Malmo FF vs Orgryte IS?

The model expects 3.22 goals (Malmo FF 2.33 · Orgryte IS 0.89), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Malmo FF vs Orgryte IS?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.