Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 13/09, 14:00

Prediction: Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF

Team pages: Elfsborg · Kalmar FF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.89Total

Elfsborg1.77

Kalmar FF1.13

1X2

51% 26% 23%

Elfsborg Draw Kalmar FF

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Elfsborg 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLLLWWWDWL

Kalmar FF 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LWLDWDLLDL

Head-to-head

Elfsborg 2–4 Kalmar FF (6 last)

Kalmar FF2-1Elfsborg
Kalmar FF1-3Elfsborg
Elfsborg1-2Kalmar FF
Elfsborg0-3Kalmar FF
Kalmar FF0-4Elfsborg
Elfsborg0-2Kalmar FF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Elfsborg 1520 · Kalmar FF 1483

	Elfsborg	Draw	Kalmar FF
Our model	51%	26%	23%
Market	51%	26%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.89 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Kalmar FF: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Elfsborg	Kalmar FF
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.2	1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.2	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.6	1.6 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	2.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.50

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
10:01 +22’	1.80	3.50	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Elfsborg 2–0–4 Kalmar FF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/04/26 Sweden Allsvenskan	Kalmar FF	2-1 HT 1-1	Elfsborg
29/09/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Kalmar FF	1-3 HT 1-2	Elfsborg
22/04/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Elfsborg	1-2 HT 0-1	Kalmar FF
17/09/23 Sweden Allsvenskan	Elfsborg	0-3 HT 0-3	Kalmar FF
09/07/23 Sweden Allsvenskan	Kalmar FF	0-4 HT 0-1	Elfsborg
09/10/22 Sweden Allsvenskan	Elfsborg	0-2 HT 0-2	Kalmar FF

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sirius	20	14	3	3	48	27	45
2	Hammarby	20	11	4	5	45	19	37
3	Djurgarden	19	11	2	6	43	19	35
4	BK Hacken	20	8	8	4	33	29	32
5	Elfsborg	20	8	7	5	28	21	31
6	AIK	18	9	4	5	28	27	31
7	Malmo FF	19	9	2	8	33	30	29
8	Vasteras SK	20	8	5	7	28	34	29
9	GAIS	20	7	6	7	25	18	27
10	Brommapojkarna	20	7	6	7	29	32	27
11	IFK Goteborg	19	6	5	8	24	39	23
12	Mjällby AIF	18	5	5	8	24	29	20
13	Kalmar FF	19	5	4	10	21	29	19
14	Degerfors	20	5	4	11	19	31	19
15	Orgryte IS	20	3	6	11	23	43	15
16	Halmstad	20	2	5	13	13	37	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Elfsborg	Kalmar FF
IFK Goteborg	1-1 D	2-3 L
Vasteras SK	3-0 W	0-0 D
Mjällby AIF	1-0 W	2-1 W
Malmo FF	2-1 W	2-2 D
GAIS	0-1 L	0-3 L
Hammarby	1-2 L	0-4 L
Orgryte IS	2-2 D	3-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Elfsborg (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Elfsborg

DLLLWWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	1-2	4	3	L
29/08	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-0	8	2	W
23/08	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
14/08	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	3-0	4	4	W
08/08	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-0	5	1	W
26/07	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	2-1	3	6	W
19/07	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-3	6	5	L
12/07	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
05/07	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-2	3	1	L
29/05	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-2	2	3	D

Kalmar FF

LWLDWDLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
23/08	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
16/08	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-4	4	1	L
09/08	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	2-3	1	3	L
01/08	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
25/07	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	2-1	3	5	W
20/07	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	2-2	2	3	D
12/07	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
05/07	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	3-0	4	1	W
30/05	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-3	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Elfsborg win (51%). Probabilities: Elfsborg 51%, draw 26%, Kalmar FF 23%.

How many goals are expected in Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?

The model expects 2.89 goals (Elfsborg 1.77 · Kalmar FF 1.13), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.