Football · Norway Toppserien Women · 31/08, 18:00

Prediction: Roa (W) vs Lyn (W)

Team pages: Roa (W) · Lyn (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.15Total

Roa (W)1.29

Lyn (W)1.86

1X2

26% 25% 50%

Roa (W) Draw Lyn (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Roa (W) 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLLDLLDWDL

Lyn (W) 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WWLDLWDLLL

Head-to-head

Roa (W) 2–1–3 Lyn (W) (6 last)

Lyn (W)0-0Roa (W)
Lyn (W)4-2Roa (W)
Lyn (W)1-0Roa (W)
Roa (W)2-1Lyn (W)
Lyn (W)1-0Roa (W)
Lyn (W)1-2Roa (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Roa (W) 1450 · Lyn (W) 1497

	Roa (W)	Draw	Lyn (W)
Our model	26%	25%	50%
Market	26%	25%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 3.15 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lyn (W) (rating 1450 vs 1497).
H2H favours Lyn (W): 3-1-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Roa (W)	Lyn (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.9	2.1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 2.7	2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.5 / 0.3	2.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.60

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.95

2 (-0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.56
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.80 → 1.80	Pinn 1.88 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
17:12 +9’	3.50	3.60	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:10 +11’	3.56	3.60	1.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Roa (W) 2–1–3 Lyn (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/05/26 Norway Toppserien Women	Lyn (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Roa (W)
01/11/25 Norway Toppserien Women	Lyn (W)	4-2 HT 1-1	Roa (W)
24/05/25 Norway Toppserien Women	Lyn (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Roa (W)
03/05/25 Norway Toppserien Women	Roa (W)	2-1 HT 1-1	Lyn (W)
09/11/24 Norway Toppserien Women	Lyn (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Roa (W)
21/08/24 Norway Cup Women	Lyn (W)	1-2 HT 1-0	Roa (W)

Standings · Norway Toppserien Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SK Brann (W)	14	12	2	0	45	4	38
2	Fortuna Aalesund (W)	13	10	1	2	34	14	31
3	Rosenborg (W)	14	9	3	2	26	16	30
4	Valerenga (W)	14	8	1	5	33	20	25
5	Stabaek (W)	14	6	3	5	26	14	21
6	Molde FK (W)	14	5	3	6	22	24	18
7	Lyn (W)	13	4	4	5	23	16	16
8	Haugesund (W)	14	4	3	7	19	36	15
9	LSK Kvinner (W)	13	4	2	7	18	22	14
10	Roa (W)	13	2	4	7	11	25	10
11	Honefoss (W)	13	2	2	9	11	28	8
12	Bodo/Glimt (W)	13	0	2	11	8	57	2

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Roa (W)	Lyn (W)
SK Brann (W)	1-5 L	0-4 L
Honefoss (W)	1-1 D	0-1 L
Haugesund (W)	1-2 L	3-0 W
Fortuna Aalesund (W)	2-3 L	1-2 L
Rosenborg (W)	0-1 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Roa (W)

LLLDLLDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	SK Brann (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-1	1-5	0	1	L
15/08	Molde FK (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	1-1	4	0	D
20/06	Stabaek (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	1-0	1	1	W
13/06	Honefoss (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	1-1	0	3	D
30/05	Haugesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	1-2	2	1	L
26/05	Fortuna Aalesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	2-3	3	0	L
15/05	Lyn (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
08/05	Molde FK (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	0-4	3	1	L
02/05	Rosenborg (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
25/04	SK Brann (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-2	0-2	2	2	L

Lyn (W)

WWLDLWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	Rosenborg (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-2	2-3	3	0	L
15/08	Fortuna Aalesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	1-2	0	4	L
20/06	Honefoss (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
13/06	Rosenborg (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-2	4-4	4	2	D
31/05	Valerenga (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	2-0	5	2	W
26/05	SK Brann (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	0-4	6	1	L
15/05	Roa (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
08/05	Fortuna Aalesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
02/05	Haugesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	3-0	7	1	W
25/04	Bodo/Glimt (W) Norway Toppserien Women	6-0	9-0	5	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Roa (W) vs Lyn (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Lyn (W) win (50%). Probabilities: Roa (W) 26%, draw 25%, Lyn (W) 50%.

How many goals are expected in Roa (W) vs Lyn (W)?

The model expects 3.15 goals (Roa (W) 1.29 · Lyn (W) 1.86), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Roa (W) vs Lyn (W)?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.