Football · Norway Toppserien Women · 31/08, 18:00

Prediction: Honefoss (W) vs Fortuna Aalesund (W)

Team pages: Honefoss (W) · Fortuna Aalesund (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.3Total

Honefoss (W)0.73

Fortuna Aalesund (W)2.57

1X2

8% 16% 76%

Honefoss (W) Draw Fortuna Aalesund (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

0-2 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Honefoss (W) 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLDWLL

Fortuna Aalesund (W) 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWLWWWW

Head-to-head

Honefoss (W) 1–4–1 Fortuna Aalesund (W) (6 last)

Fortuna Aalesund (W)2-0Honefoss (W)
Fortuna Aalesund (W)2-3Honefoss (W)
Honefoss (W)2-2Fortuna Aalesund (W)
Fortuna Aalesund (W)1-1Honefoss (W)
Honefoss (W)2-2Fortuna Aalesund (W)
Fortuna Aalesund (W)1-1Honefoss (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Honefoss (W) 1429 · Fortuna Aalesund (W) 1618

	Honefoss (W)	Draw	Fortuna Aalesund (W)
Our model	8%	16%	76%
Market	7%	16%	76%

Estimated total (ours) 3.3 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fortuna Aalesund (W) (rating 1429 vs 1618).
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Honefoss (W)	Fortuna Aalesund (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2.5	2.9 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1.3	1.4 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/30/70%	70/30/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 3.4	3.9 / 8.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.6 / 0.1	2.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

112.00

X5.50

21.18

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.75)2.00

2 (-1.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.77

Under 32.02

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	8.50 → 12.00▲	Bet365 12.00
X	4.50 → 5.50▲	Bet365 5.50
2	1.28 → 1.18▼	Bet365 1.18

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:18 +4’	8.50	4.50	1.28
15:22 +4’	12.00▲	5.50▲	1.18▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Honefoss (W) 1–4–1 Fortuna Aalesund (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/05/26 Norway Toppserien Women	Fortuna Aalesund (W)	2-0 HT 1-0	Honefoss (W)
21/05/25 Norway Cup Women	Fortuna Aalesund (W)	2-3 HT 1-2	Honefoss (W)
02/11/24 Norway Division 1 Women	Honefoss (W)	2-2 HT 0-2	Fortuna Aalesund (W)
13/10/24 Norway Division 1 Women	Fortuna Aalesund (W)	1-1 HT 0-1	Honefoss (W)
16/06/24 Norway Division 1 Women	Honefoss (W)	2-2 HT 1-0	Fortuna Aalesund (W)
12/05/24 Norway Division 1 Women	Fortuna Aalesund (W)	1-1 HT 1-0	Honefoss (W)

Standings · Norway Toppserien Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SK Brann (W)	14	12	2	0	45	4	38
2	Fortuna Aalesund (W)	13	10	1	2	34	14	31
3	Rosenborg (W)	14	9	3	2	26	16	30
4	Valerenga (W)	14	8	1	5	33	20	25
5	Stabaek (W)	14	6	3	5	26	14	21
6	Molde FK (W)	14	5	3	6	22	24	18
7	Lyn (W)	13	4	4	5	23	16	16
8	Haugesund (W)	14	4	3	7	19	36	15
9	LSK Kvinner (W)	13	4	2	7	18	22	14
10	Roa (W)	13	2	4	7	11	25	10
11	Honefoss (W)	13	2	2	9	11	28	8
12	Bodo/Glimt (W)	13	0	2	11	8	57	2

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Honefoss (W)	Fortuna Aalesund (W)
SK Brann (W)	0-3 L	1-2 L
Lyn (W)	1-0 W	2-1 W
Roa (W)	1-1 D	3-2 W
LSK Kvinner (W)	2-3 L	3-0 W
Haugesund (W)	2-3 L	5-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Fortuna Aalesund (W) (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Honefoss (W)

LLLLLLDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/08	Valerenga (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	1-2	4	1	L
15/08	SK Brann (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-2	0-3	0	0	L
20/06	Lyn (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
13/06	Roa (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
29/05	Stabaek (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	1-2	4	3	L
26/05	LSK Kvinner (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-1	2-3	9	3	L
15/05	Fortuna Aalesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
08/05	Valerenga (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	0-3	0	0	L
03/05	SK Brann (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-3	0-6	2	2	L
25/04	Haugesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-3	2-3	4	0	L

Fortuna Aalesund (W)

WWWWWLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Haugesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women	3-0	5-1	15	1	W
15/08	Lyn (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	2-1	10	4	W
20/06	Bodo/Glimt (W) Norway Toppserien Women	5-1	8-1	14	1	W
13/06	LSK Kvinner (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	3-0	7	0	W
30/05	SK Brann (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
26/05	Roa (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	3-2	10	0	W
15/05	Honefoss (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	2-0	10	2	W
08/05	Lyn (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	1-0	7	4	W
02/05	Molde FK (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-1	3-2	2	0	W
24/04	Rosenborg (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	1-0	6	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Honefoss (W) vs Fortuna Aalesund (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Fortuna Aalesund (W) win (76%). Probabilities: Honefoss (W) 8%, draw 16%, Fortuna Aalesund (W) 76%.

How many goals are expected in Honefoss (W) vs Fortuna Aalesund (W)?

The model expects 3.3 goals (Honefoss (W) 0.73 · Fortuna Aalesund (W) 2.57), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Honefoss (W) vs Fortuna Aalesund (W)?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.