Prediction: RKC Third Coast vs Chicago Dutch Lions
Expected goals: 3.13 (RKC Third Coast 1.64 · Chicago Dutch Lions 1.49). The model gives 41% home, 24% draw, 35% away. Under 3.5 goals (57%) and both teams to score (57%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Over its last 10 matches, RKC Third Coast sits at 3-1-6 (W-D-L), while Chicago Dutch Lions arrives on a 5-1-4 run. In the last 3 head-to-head meetings the record reads 2 wins for RKC Third Coast and 1 for Chicago Dutch Lions.
| RKC Third Coast | Draw | Chicago Dutch Lions | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 26% | 34% |
| Market | 42% | 23% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chicago Dutch Lions (rating 1460 vs 1505).
- H2H favours RKC Third Coast: 2-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| RKC Third Coast | Chicago Dutch Lions | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.6 | 1.6 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.8 | 0.7 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.5 / 7.7 | 1.5 / 2.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.3 | 2.9 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · RKC Third Coast 2–0–1 Chicago Dutch Lions
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/26 USA USL League Two | Chicago Dutch Lions | 2-0 HT 0-0 | RKC Third Coast |
| 09/06/25 USA USL League Two | RKC Third Coast | 4-1 HT 0-1 | Chicago Dutch Lions |
| 22/05/25 USA USL League Two | Chicago Dutch Lions | 0-7 HT 0-2 | RKC Third Coast |
Standings · USA USL League Two · USL League Two 2026, Heartland Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minneapolis City SC | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 38 | 6 | 30 |
| 2 | Sueno | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 34 | 9 | 21 |
| 3 | Chicago Dutch Lions | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 18 | 16 |
| 4 | Rockford Raptors | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 22 | 15 |
| 5 | St Croix SC | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 20 | 24 | 12 |
| 6 | River Light SC | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 14 | 8 |
| 7 | RKC Third Coast | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 10 |
| 8 | Edgewater Castle FC | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 29 | 6 |
| 9 | Rochester FC | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 32 | 6 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | RKC Third Coast | Chicago Dutch Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Sueno | 1-5 L | 0-3 L |
| Minneapolis City SC | 1-3 L | 0-6 L |
| Rochester FC | 1-2 L | 4-0 W |
| Edgewater Castle FC | 4-0 W | 2-1 W |
| St Croix SC | 1-0 W | 1-4 L |
| Rockford Raptors | 0-2 L | 3-1 W |
| River Light SC | 0-0 D | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 4 L | 3 W 1 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
RKC Third Coast
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Sueno USA USL League Two |
0-3 | 1-5 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 25/06 | Minneapolis City SC USA USL League Two |
1-3 | 1-3 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 21/06 | Chicago Dutch Lions USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-2 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 18/06 | Rochester FC USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 15/06 | Edgewater Castle FC USA USL League Two |
3-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 08/06 | St Croix SC USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 2 | W |
| 04/06 | Minneapolis City SC USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 01/06 | Rockford Raptors USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 0-2 | 11 | 2 | L |
| 28/05 | River Light SC USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Edgewater Castle FC USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
Chicago Dutch Lions
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Rochester FC USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 21/06 | RKC Third Coast USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 14/06 | River Light SC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 11/06 | St Croix SC USA USL League Two |
1-3 | 1-4 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 04/06 | Rochester FC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 01/06 | Edgewater Castle FC USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 28/05 | Rockford Raptors USA USL League Two |
3-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 23/05 | Sueno USA USL League Two |
0-2 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 17/05 | Minneapolis City SC USA USL League Two |
0-3 | 0-6 | – | – | L |
| 13/07 | Rochester FC USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 8 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in RKC Third Coast vs Chicago Dutch Lions?
According to our model, the most likely result is a RKC Third Coast win (41%). Probabilities: RKC Third Coast 41%, draw 24%, Chicago Dutch Lions 35%.
How many goals are expected in RKC Third Coast vs Chicago Dutch Lions?
The model expects 3.13 goals (RKC Third Coast 1.64 · Chicago Dutch Lions 1.49), with a 57% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in RKC Third Coast vs Chicago Dutch Lions?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.