Football · Brazil Serie B · 01/11, 22:30

Prediction: Gremio Novorizontino vs Operario PR

Team pages: Gremio Novorizontino · Operario PR

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

Gremio Novorizontino2.07

Operario PR0.89

1X2

64% 22% 14%

Gremio Novorizontino Draw Operario PR

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Gremio Novorizontino 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWDLDWWWDW

Operario PR 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWDWDLLLLW

Head-to-head

Gremio Novorizontino 1–2–3 Operario PR (6 last)

Operario PR2-1Gremio Novorizontino
Operario PR1-1Gremio Novorizontino
Gremio Novorizontino3-0Operario PR
Operario PR2-0Gremio Novorizontino
Gremio Novorizontino0-1Operario PR
Operario PR0-0Gremio Novorizontino

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gremio Novorizontino 1562 · Operario PR 1493

	Gremio Novorizontino	Draw	Operario PR
Our model	64%	22%	14%
Market	64%	22%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gremio Novorizontino (rating 1562 vs 1493).
H2H favours Operario PR: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gremio Novorizontino	Operario PR
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 0.8	1.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.2	2.4 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.3	5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.45

X4.20

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.00

2 (+1.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 07:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.45▲	Pinn 1.47
X	4.50 → 4.20▼	Pinn 4.39 ★
2	8.00 → 6.50▼	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 8.2% Pinnacle margin 6.3%

Time*	1	X	2
18:18 +14’	1.36	4.50	8.00
22:12 +14’	1.40▲	4.33▼	7.50▼
07:09 +8’	1.45▲	4.20▼	6.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:14 +12’	1.47	4.41	6.32
06:18 +56’	1.44▼	4.49▲	6.80▲
14:21 +28’	1.42▼	4.57▲	7.07▲
14:22 +33’	1.47▲	4.39▼	6.47▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gremio Novorizontino 1–2–3 Operario PR

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/07/26 Brazil Serie B	Operario PR	2-1 HT 1-1	Gremio Novorizontino
16/04/26 Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste	Operario PR	1-1 HT 0-0	Gremio Novorizontino
12/10/25 Brazil Serie B	Gremio Novorizontino	3-0 HT 0-0	Operario PR
24/06/25 Brazil Serie B	Operario PR	2-0 HT 1-0	Gremio Novorizontino
09/11/24 Brazil Serie B	Gremio Novorizontino	0-1 HT 0-0	Operario PR
24/07/24 Brazil Serie B	Operario PR	0-0 HT 0-0	Gremio Novorizontino

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gremio Novorizontino	35	18	10	7	62	30	64
2	EC Juventude	35	18	10	7	45	23	64
3	Vila Nova	35	18	8	9	50	36	62
4	Fortaleza	35	16	13	6	43	31	61
5	Criciuma	35	17	8	10	36	30	59
6	CRB	35	16	7	12	53	49	55
7	Sport Recife	35	14	12	9	47	38	54
8	Atletico GO	35	14	12	9	42	33	54
9	Goias	35	15	7	13	36	40	52
10	Operario PR	35	14	9	12	45	46	51
11	Sao Bernardo SP	35	13	10	12	49	39	49
12	Botafogo SP	35	13	8	14	40	38	47
13	Cuiaba	35	11	14	10	32	28	47
14	Athletic Club MG	35	10	14	11	40	40	44
15	Nautico	35	11	10	14	39	46	43
16	Ceara	35	11	10	14	37	44	43
17	Avai	35	10	7	18	33	45	37
18	Londrina	35	8	8	19	44	51	32
19	America MG	35	6	5	24	23	54	23
20	Ponte Preta	35	3	6	26	21	76	15

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gremio Novorizontino	Operario PR
Nautico	2-0 W	3-3 D
Goias	3-0 W	0-2 L
Ceara	1-2 L	2-2 D
Botafogo SP	3-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Gremio Novorizontino (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gremio Novorizontino

WWDLDWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
18/10	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-2	4	5	D
13/10	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	3-1	5-1	5	8	W
09/10	Nautico Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-0	4	5	W
02/10	Goias Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-0	4	4	W
26/09	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
19/09	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-2	9	8	L
13/09	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	10	3	D
10/09	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	1-1	3-1	4	6	W
05/09	Avai Brazil Serie B	3-1	3-1	8	3	W

Operario PR

WWDWDLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	6	6	W
17/10	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
11/10	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-2	14	2	L
08/10	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-2	7	5	L
03/10	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-3	5	4	L
26/09	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-2	7	4	D
23/09	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
16/09	Nautico Brazil Serie B	1-1	3-3	2	5	D
10/09	CRB Brazil Serie B	2-0	3-0	0	4	W
06/09	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-1	3	12	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gremio Novorizontino vs Operario PR?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gremio Novorizontino win (64%). Probabilities: Gremio Novorizontino 64%, draw 22%, Operario PR 14%.

How many goals are expected in Gremio Novorizontino vs Operario PR?

The model expects 2.97 goals (Gremio Novorizontino 2.07 · Operario PR 0.89), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Gremio Novorizontino vs Operario PR?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.