Football · Brazil Serie B · 01/11, 22:30

Prediction: Cuiaba vs Sao Bernardo SP

Team pages: Cuiaba · Sao Bernardo SP

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.48Total

Cuiaba1.62

Sao Bernardo SP0.85

1X2

55% 26% 19%

Cuiaba Draw Sao Bernardo SP

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Cuiaba 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWDWLWDLLL

Sao Bernardo SP 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWDWLDLW

Head-to-head

Cuiaba 0–1–0 Sao Bernardo SP (1 last)

Sao Bernardo SP2-2Cuiaba

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cuiaba 1498 · Sao Bernardo SP 1526

	Cuiaba	Draw	Sao Bernardo SP
Our model	54%	27%	19%
Market	55%	26%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cuiaba	Sao Bernardo SP
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 0.9	1.5 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6.9	2.1 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.60

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.93

2 (+0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 11:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.67▼	Pinn 1.71
X	3.30 → 3.60▲	Pinn 3.61
2	4.10 → 4.75▲	Pinn 5.06 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 8.9% Pinnacle margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
18:25 +7’	1.83	3.30	4.10
07:05 +12’	1.80▼	3.30	4.33▲
11:17 +11’	1.67▼	3.60▲	4.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:12 +13’	1.68	3.61	5.01
01:09 +26’	1.69▲	3.65▲	5.10▲
17:27 +13’	1.71▲	3.62▼	5.05▼
23:24 +5’	1.70▼	3.62	5.08▲
00:29 +12’	1.71▲	3.61▼	5.06▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cuiaba 0–1–0 Sao Bernardo SP

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/07/26 Brazil Serie B	Sao Bernardo SP	2-2 HT 2-2	Cuiaba

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gremio Novorizontino	35	18	10	7	62	30	64
2	EC Juventude	35	18	10	7	45	23	64
3	Vila Nova	35	18	8	9	50	36	62
4	Fortaleza	35	16	13	6	43	31	61
5	Criciuma	35	17	8	10	36	30	59
6	CRB	35	16	7	12	53	49	55
7	Sport Recife	35	14	12	9	47	38	54
8	Atletico GO	35	14	12	9	42	33	54
9	Goias	35	15	7	13	36	40	52
10	Operario PR	35	14	9	12	45	46	51
11	Sao Bernardo SP	35	13	10	12	49	39	49
12	Botafogo SP	35	13	8	14	40	38	47
13	Cuiaba	35	11	14	10	32	28	47
14	Athletic Club MG	35	10	14	11	40	40	44
15	Nautico	35	11	10	14	39	46	43
16	Ceara	35	11	10	14	37	44	43
17	Avai	35	10	7	18	33	45	37
18	Londrina	35	8	8	19	44	51	32
19	America MG	35	6	5	24	23	54	23
20	Ponte Preta	35	3	6	26	21	76	15

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cuiaba	Sao Bernardo SP
America MG	0-1 L	2-0 W
Londrina	0-1 L	1-2 L
Vila Nova	0-0 D	3-2 W
Ponte Preta	2-0 W	2-0 W
CRB	0-3 L	3-1 W
Gremio Novorizontino	1-1 D	0-0 D
Criciuma	0-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 4 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sao Bernardo SP (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cuiaba

LWDWLWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/10	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	12	2	L
21/10	Londrina Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	8	1	L
11/10	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	13	3	L
08/10	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
03/10	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	7	7	W
27/09	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-3	7	6	L
22/09	Nautico Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
13/09	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
09/09	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-0	2	1	W
05/09	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	2	2	L

Sao Bernardo SP

WLWWDWLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	1-1	3-2	8	5	W
18/10	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	9	0	L
11/10	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-2	3	5	D
07/10	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-2	9	7	L
03/10	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-0	3-1	5	2	W
26/09	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
19/09	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
15/09	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	4	5	W
11/09	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-2	4	3	L
06/09	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	9	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cuiaba vs Sao Bernardo SP?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cuiaba win (55%). Probabilities: Cuiaba 55%, draw 26%, Sao Bernardo SP 19%.

How many goals are expected in Cuiaba vs Sao Bernardo SP?

The model expects 2.48 goals (Cuiaba 1.62 · Sao Bernardo SP 0.85), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Sao Bernardo SP?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.