Football · Brazil Serie B · 31/10, 22:00

Prediction: Vila Nova vs EC Juventude

Team pages: Vila Nova · EC Juventude

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.3Total

Vila Nova1.25

EC Juventude1.05

1X2

39% 31% 30%

Vila Nova Draw EC Juventude

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Vila Nova 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWDWWWDWDL

EC Juventude 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWLLWWWDDW

Head-to-head

Vila Nova 2–3–1 EC Juventude (6 last)

EC Juventude1-0Vila Nova
EC Juventude0-2Vila Nova
Vila Nova1-0EC Juventude
Vila Nova1-1EC Juventude
Vila Nova0-0EC Juventude
EC Juventude0-0Vila Nova

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vila Nova 1527 · EC Juventude 1551

	Vila Nova	Draw	EC Juventude
Our model	39%	31%	30%
Market	39%	31%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.3 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Vila Nova: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vila Nova	EC Juventude
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.1	1.9 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.4	1.5 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.2	5.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.00

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 21.98

Under 21.82

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 01:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.40▲	Pinn 2.43
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	3.10 → 3.20▲	Pinn 3.39 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.3% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
05:06 +7’	2.38	3.00	3.10
01:12 +9’	2.40▲	3.00	3.20▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:21 +2’	2.40	2.86	3.34
02:20 +2’	2.42▲	2.89▲	3.38▲
22:03 +41’	2.43▲	2.90▲	3.39▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Vila Nova 2–3–1 EC Juventude

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/07/26 Brazil Serie B	EC Juventude	1-0 HT 1-0	Vila Nova
07/08/23 Brazil Serie B	EC Juventude	0-2 HT 0-0	Vila Nova
30/04/23 Brazil Serie B	Vila Nova	1-0 HT 1-0	EC Juventude
09/04/21 Copa do Brasil	Vila Nova	1-1 HT 1-1	EC Juventude
08/05/19 Copa do Brasil	Vila Nova	0-0 HT 0-0	EC Juventude
25/04/19 Copa do Brasil	EC Juventude	0-0 HT 0-0	Vila Nova

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gremio Novorizontino	35	18	10	7	62	30	64
2	EC Juventude	35	18	10	7	45	23	64
3	Vila Nova	35	18	8	9	50	36	62
4	Fortaleza	35	16	13	6	43	31	61
5	Criciuma	35	17	8	10	36	30	59
6	CRB	35	16	7	12	53	49	55
7	Sport Recife	35	14	12	9	47	38	54
8	Atletico GO	35	14	12	9	42	33	54
9	Goias	35	15	7	13	36	40	52
10	Operario PR	35	14	9	12	45	46	51
11	Sao Bernardo SP	35	13	10	12	49	39	49
12	Botafogo SP	35	13	8	14	40	38	47
13	Cuiaba	35	11	14	10	32	28	47
14	Athletic Club MG	35	10	14	11	40	40	44
15	Nautico	35	11	10	14	39	46	43
16	Ceara	35	11	10	14	37	44	43
17	Avai	35	10	7	18	33	45	37
18	Londrina	35	8	8	19	44	51	32
19	America MG	35	6	5	24	23	54	23
20	Ponte Preta	35	3	6	26	21	76	15

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vila Nova	EC Juventude
Sao Bernardo SP	2-3 L	2-2 D
Nautico	2-0 W	4-0 W
America MG	1-0 W	1-0 W
Athletic Club MG	0-5 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: EC Juventude (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vila Nova

LWDWWWDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-3	3	5	L
18/10	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-1	2-2	6	5	D
11/10	Nautico Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-0	4	6	W
08/10	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
03/10	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	1	5	W
26/09	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	9	3	W
19/09	America MG Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
15/09	Avai Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
11/09	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	2	7	W
05/09	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	0-3	0-5	2	5	L

EC Juventude

DWLLWWWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Nautico Brazil Serie B	2-0	4-0	4	6	W
17/10	Ceara Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-2	6	5	D
11/10	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-2	4	5	D
07/10	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	6	7	W
03/10	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	2-0	3-0	3	4	W
29/09	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
19/09	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
13/09	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-2	3	5	L
09/09	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	2	7	W
05/09	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	2-1	2-2	3	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vila Nova vs EC Juventude?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vila Nova win (39%). Probabilities: Vila Nova 39%, draw 31%, EC Juventude 30%.

How many goals are expected in Vila Nova vs EC Juventude?

The model expects 2.3 goals (Vila Nova 1.25 · EC Juventude 1.05), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Vila Nova vs EC Juventude?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.