Football · Brazil Serie B · 31/10, 23:30

Prediction: Nautico vs Avai

Team pages: Nautico · Avai

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.35Total

Nautico1.4

Avai0.95

1X2

47% 29% 25%

Nautico Draw Avai

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Nautico 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLDLWDLLDL

Avai 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLDLLLWWDL

Head-to-head

Nautico 0–1–5 Avai (6 last)

Avai2-0Nautico
Nautico1-2Avai
Avai2-0Nautico
Nautico2-2Avai
Avai3-1Nautico
Avai3-0Nautico

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nautico 1451 · Avai 1461

	Nautico	Draw	Avai
Our model	46%	30%	24%
Market	47%	28%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Avai: 5-1-0.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nautico	Avai
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.8	0.6 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.1	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.9	2.4 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	4.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.40

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 01:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 2.00▲	Pinn 2.04 ★
X	3.25 → 3.40▲	Bet365 3.40
2	4.00 → 3.70▼	Pinn 3.74

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6.4% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
05:05 +8’	1.90	3.25	4.00
11:18 +3’	2.00▲	3.20▼	3.70▼
01:16 +5’	2.00	3.40▲	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:14 +10’	2.02	3.31	3.69
02:14 +8’	2.04▲	3.35▲	3.73▲
23:49 +37’	2.04	3.36▲	3.74▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nautico 0–1–5 Avai

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/07/26 Brazil Serie B	Avai	2-0 HT 1-0	Nautico
21/11/21 Brazil Serie B	Nautico	1-2 HT 0-1	Avai
15/08/21 Brazil Serie B	Avai	2-0 HT 0-0	Nautico
06/11/20 Brazil Serie B	Nautico	2-2 HT 0-1	Avai
09/08/20 Brazil Serie B	Avai	3-1 HT 2-0	Nautico
12/11/16 Brazil Serie B	Avai	3-0 HT 2-0	Nautico

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gremio Novorizontino	35	18	10	7	62	30	64
2	EC Juventude	35	18	10	7	45	23	64
3	Vila Nova	35	18	8	9	50	36	62
4	Fortaleza	35	16	13	6	43	31	61
5	Criciuma	35	17	8	10	36	30	59
6	CRB	35	16	7	12	53	49	55
7	Sport Recife	35	14	12	9	47	38	54
8	Atletico GO	35	14	12	9	42	33	54
9	Goias	35	15	7	13	36	40	52
10	Operario PR	35	14	9	12	45	46	51
11	Sao Bernardo SP	35	13	10	12	49	39	49
12	Botafogo SP	35	13	8	14	40	38	47
13	Cuiaba	35	11	14	10	32	28	47
14	Athletic Club MG	35	10	14	11	40	40	44
15	Nautico	35	11	10	14	39	46	43
16	Ceara	35	11	10	14	37	44	43
17	Avai	35	10	7	18	33	45	37
18	Londrina	35	8	8	19	44	51	32
19	America MG	35	6	5	24	23	54	23
20	Ponte Preta	35	3	6	26	21	76	15

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nautico	Avai
Goias	0-0 D	1-2 L
Vila Nova	0-2 L	1-1 D
Gremio Novorizontino	0-2 L	1-3 L
Fortaleza	1-1 D	0-1 L
Cuiaba	0-3 L	1-0 W
Botafogo SP	1-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Nautico (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nautico

WLDLWDLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-4	3	6	L
20/10	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	8	2	D
11/10	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-2	7	6	L
09/10	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-2	3	5	L
03/10	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	4	4	D
26/09	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-1	11	2	W
22/09	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-3	4	3	L
16/09	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	1-1	3-3	4	5	D
10/09	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-2	1-2	10	3	L
04/09	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	5	4	W

Avai

LLDLLLWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	14	3	L
18/10	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	9	6	D
11/10	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
08/10	Londrina Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-1	4	6	W
03/10	Ceara Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
27/09	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-3	2	7	L
20/09	Goias Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-2	3	8	L
15/09	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
10/09	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
05/09	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	1-3	1-3	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nautico vs Avai?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nautico win (47%). Probabilities: Nautico 47%, draw 29%, Avai 25%.

How many goals are expected in Nautico vs Avai?

The model expects 2.35 goals (Nautico 1.4 · Avai 0.95), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Nautico vs Avai?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.