Football · Brazil Serie B · 05/11, 23:30

Prediction: Botafogo SP vs Londrina

Team pages: Botafogo SP · Londrina

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.41Total

Botafogo SP1.54

Londrina0.86

1X2

53% 27% 20%

Botafogo SP Draw Londrina

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Botafogo SP 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LLDWLWWWWD

Londrina 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WWLLLLDWLL

Head-to-head

Botafogo SP 2–2–1 Londrina (5 last)

Londrina0-0Botafogo SP
Botafogo SP0-1Londrina
Londrina1-2Botafogo SP
Londrina1-1Botafogo SP
Botafogo SP2-1Londrina

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Botafogo SP 1529 · Londrina 1435

	Botafogo SP	Draw	Londrina
Our model	52%	28%	20%
Market	53%	26%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Botafogo SP (rating 1529 vs 1435).
H2H favours Botafogo SP: 2-2-1.
High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Botafogo SP	Londrina
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1	1.5 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.6 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 6.9	2.5 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.50

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Pinn 1.77
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.67 ★
2	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.57

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:01 +5’	1.75	3.50	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:51 +15’	1.77	3.67	4.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Botafogo SP 2–2–1 Londrina

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/07/26 Brazil Serie B	Londrina	0-0 HT 0-0	Botafogo SP
25/11/23 Brazil Serie B	Botafogo SP	0-1 HT 0-0	Londrina
25/07/23 Brazil Serie B	Londrina	1-2 HT 1-1	Botafogo SP
16/11/19 Brazil Serie B	Londrina	1-1 HT 0-1	Botafogo SP
21/08/19 Brazil Serie B	Botafogo SP	2-1 HT 1-1	Londrina

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gremio Novorizontino	36	19	10	7	64	31	67
2	EC Juventude	36	18	11	7	47	25	65
3	Vila Nova	36	18	9	9	52	38	63
4	Criciuma	36	18	8	10	38	30	62
5	Fortaleza	35	16	13	6	43	31	61
6	CRB	35	16	7	12	53	49	55
7	Sport Recife	36	14	13	9	48	39	55
8	Atletico GO	35	14	12	9	42	33	54
9	Goias	35	15	7	13	36	40	52
10	Sao Bernardo SP	36	14	10	12	51	40	52
11	Operario PR	36	14	9	13	46	48	51
12	Botafogo SP	36	13	9	14	41	39	48
13	Cuiaba	36	11	14	11	33	30	47
14	Nautico	36	12	10	14	40	46	46
15	Athletic Club MG	35	10	14	11	40	40	44
16	Ceara	35	11	10	14	37	44	43
17	Avai	36	10	7	19	33	46	37
18	Londrina	36	8	8	20	45	54	32
19	America MG	36	7	5	24	26	55	26
20	Ponte Preta	36	3	6	27	21	78	15

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Botafogo SP	Londrina
Avai	2-0 W	1-2 L
CRB	1-0 W	1-2 L
Vila Nova	0-1 L	0-2 L
Ponte Preta	2-0 W	6-0 W
Athletic Club MG	1-1 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Botafogo SP (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Botafogo SP

LLDWLWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	11	1	D
24/10	Avai Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	2	3	W
18/10	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	8	7	W
13/10	Ceara Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
08/10	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-1	4	5	W
03/10	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	12	5	L
30/09	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-0	5	3	W
19/09	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	5	5	D
15/09	Goias Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-3	6	7	L
10/09	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-3	8	6	L

Londrina

WWLLLLDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-2	1-3	7	5	L
24/10	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-2	1-2	4	2	L
21/10	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	2	1	W
14/10	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-2	1	3	D
08/10	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-2	1-2	9	6	L
03/10	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-2	6	4	L
26/09	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
20/09	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-2	8	4	L
16/09	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	3-0	6-0	10	3	W
11/09	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-1	7	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Botafogo SP vs Londrina?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Botafogo SP win (53%). Probabilities: Botafogo SP 53%, draw 27%, Londrina 20%.

How many goals are expected in Botafogo SP vs Londrina?

The model expects 2.41 goals (Botafogo SP 1.54 · Londrina 0.86), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Botafogo SP vs Londrina?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.