Football · Brazil Serie B · 01/11, 20:00

Prediction: Londrina vs America MG

Team pages: Londrina · America MG

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.36Total

Londrina1.47

America MG0.89

1X2

50% 28% 22%

Londrina Draw America MG

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Londrina 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWWLLLLDWL

America MG 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLLLWW

Head-to-head

Londrina 0–2–3 America MG (5 last)

America MG1-1Londrina
Londrina0-1America MG
America MG4-3Londrina
Londrina0-0America MG
America MG3-2Londrina

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Londrina 1446 · America MG 1453

	Londrina	Draw	America MG
Our model	49%	29%	22%
Market	50%	27%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours America MG: 3-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Londrina	America MG
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.5	0.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.9	2.5 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	4.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.40

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 12:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.83▲	Pinn 1.86
X	3.50 → 3.40▼	Pinn 3.71 ★
2	4.75 → 4.10▼	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 8.4% Pinnacle margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
05:11 +6’	1.70	3.50	4.75
11:25 +2’	1.85▲	3.30▼	4.00▼
12:27 +5’	1.83▼	3.40▲	4.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:12 +12’	1.79	3.61	4.28
01:09 +25’	1.80▲	3.66▲	4.34▲
09:53 +29’	1.86▲	3.66	4.03▼
20:02 +33’	1.86	3.71▲	3.95▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Londrina 0–2–3 America MG

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/07/26 Brazil Serie B	America MG	1-1 HT 1-0	Londrina
09/11/19 Brazil Serie B	Londrina	0-1 HT 0-1	America MG
07/08/19 Brazil Serie B	America MG	4-3 HT 1-2	Londrina
18/11/17 Brazil Serie B	Londrina	0-0 HT 0-0	America MG
02/08/17 Brazil Serie B	America MG	3-2 HT 1-1	Londrina

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gremio Novorizontino	35	18	10	7	62	30	64
2	EC Juventude	35	18	10	7	45	23	64
3	Vila Nova	35	18	8	9	50	36	62
4	Fortaleza	35	16	13	6	43	31	61
5	Criciuma	35	17	8	10	36	30	59
6	CRB	35	16	7	12	53	49	55
7	Sport Recife	35	14	12	9	47	38	54
8	Atletico GO	35	14	12	9	42	33	54
9	Goias	35	15	7	13	36	40	52
10	Operario PR	35	14	9	12	45	46	51
11	Sao Bernardo SP	35	13	10	12	49	39	49
12	Botafogo SP	35	13	8	14	40	38	47
13	Cuiaba	35	11	14	10	32	28	47
14	Athletic Club MG	35	10	14	11	40	40	44
15	Nautico	35	11	10	14	39	46	43
16	Ceara	35	11	10	14	37	44	43
17	Avai	35	10	7	18	33	45	37
18	Londrina	35	8	8	19	44	51	32
19	America MG	35	6	5	24	23	54	23
20	Ponte Preta	35	3	6	26	21	76	15

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Londrina	America MG
CRB	1-2 L	1-3 L
Cuiaba	1-0 W	1-0 W
Criciuma	0-2 L	0-1 L
Vila Nova	0-2 L	0-1 L
Fortaleza	1-2 L	0-1 L
Sao Bernardo SP	2-1 W	0-2 L
Operario PR	1-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 5 L	2 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: America MG (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Londrina

LWWLLLLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-2	1-2	4	2	L
21/10	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	2	1	W
14/10	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-2	1	3	D
08/10	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-2	1-2	9	6	L
03/10	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-2	6	4	L
26/09	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
20/09	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-2	8	4	L
16/09	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	3-0	6-0	10	3	W
11/09	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-1	7	3	W
06/09	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-2	7	12	L

America MG

LWLLLLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/10	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
17/10	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
13/10	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
08/10	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	3	5	L
03/10	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
29/09	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
19/09	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
15/09	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-2	5	5	L
10/09	Nautico Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-1	5	3	W
05/09	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-3	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Londrina vs America MG?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Londrina win (50%). Probabilities: Londrina 50%, draw 28%, America MG 22%.

How many goals are expected in Londrina vs America MG?

The model expects 2.36 goals (Londrina 1.47 · America MG 0.89), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Londrina vs America MG?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.