Football · Brazil Serie B · 31/10, 20:00

Prediction: Botafogo SP vs Sport Recife

Team pages: Botafogo SP · Sport Recife

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

Botafogo SP1.35

Sport Recife1.31

1X2

36% 29% 34%

Botafogo SP Draw Sport Recife

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Botafogo SP 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLLDWLWWWW

Sport Recife 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWLWWDLW

Head-to-head

Botafogo SP 0–3–3 Sport Recife (6 last)

Sport Recife3-3Botafogo SP
Sport Recife3-1Botafogo SP
Botafogo SP1-1Sport Recife
Botafogo SP1-1Sport Recife
Sport Recife3-0Botafogo SP
Botafogo SP0-2Sport Recife

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Botafogo SP 1523 · Sport Recife 1513

	Botafogo SP	Draw	Sport Recife
Our model	37%	29%	35%
Market	36%	29%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Sport Recife: 3-3-0.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Botafogo SP	Sport Recife
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1	1.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 6	2.4 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.20

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 01:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.60▲	Pinn 2.67 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.25
2	2.90 → 2.75▼	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6.1% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
18:17 +6’	2.40	3.20	2.90
13:21 +2’	2.60▲	3.20	2.70▼
01:16 +5’	2.60	3.20	2.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:56 +110’	2.49	3.22	2.92
02:30 +67’	2.44▼	3.22	2.98▲
12:05 +9’	2.56▲	3.27▲	2.80▼
09:00 +12’	2.65▲	3.24▼	2.72▼
13:56 +23’	2.67▲	3.24	2.70▼
22:20 +22’	2.67	3.25▲	2.71▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Botafogo SP 0–3–3 Sport Recife

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/07/26 Brazil Serie B	Sport Recife	3-3 HT 0-2	Botafogo SP
21/10/24 Brazil Serie B	Sport Recife	3-1 HT 2-0	Botafogo SP
29/06/24 Brazil Serie B	Botafogo SP	1-1 HT 1-0	Sport Recife
03/09/23 Brazil Serie B	Botafogo SP	1-1 HT 1-1	Sport Recife
20/05/23 Brazil Serie B	Sport Recife	3-0 HT 1-0	Botafogo SP
14/11/19 Brazil Serie B	Botafogo SP	0-2 HT 0-1	Sport Recife

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gremio Novorizontino	35	18	10	7	62	30	64
2	EC Juventude	35	18	10	7	45	23	64
3	Vila Nova	35	18	8	9	50	36	62
4	Fortaleza	35	16	13	6	43	31	61
5	Criciuma	35	17	8	10	36	30	59
6	CRB	35	16	7	12	53	49	55
7	Sport Recife	35	14	12	9	47	38	54
8	Atletico GO	35	14	12	9	42	33	54
9	Goias	35	15	7	13	36	40	52
10	Operario PR	35	14	9	12	45	46	51
11	Sao Bernardo SP	35	13	10	12	49	39	49
12	Botafogo SP	35	13	8	14	40	38	47
13	Cuiaba	35	11	14	10	32	28	47
14	Athletic Club MG	35	10	14	11	40	40	44
15	Nautico	35	11	10	14	39	46	43
16	Ceara	35	11	10	14	37	44	43
17	Avai	35	10	7	18	33	45	37
18	Londrina	35	8	8	19	44	51	32
19	America MG	35	6	5	24	23	54	23
20	Ponte Preta	35	3	6	26	21	76	15

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Botafogo SP	Sport Recife
CRB	1-0 W	1-2 L
Ceara	1-0 W	1-2 L
Ponte Preta	2-0 W	2-0 W
Athletic Club MG	1-1 D	2-1 W
Nautico	0-1 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Botafogo SP (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Botafogo SP

LLLDWLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Avai Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	2	3	W
18/10	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	8	7	W
13/10	Ceara Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
08/10	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-1	4	5	W
03/10	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	12	5	L
30/09	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-0	5	3	W
19/09	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	5	5	D
15/09	Goias Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-3	6	7	L
10/09	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-3	8	6	L
04/09	Nautico Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	2	4	L

Sport Recife

LWLWLWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-1	0	3	W
17/10	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	11	7	L
11/10	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
07/10	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-1	5	7	W
02/10	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	2-1	2-1	6	4	W
26/09	Nautico Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-3	9	2	L
19/09	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-1	2	6	W
16/09	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-2	3	6	L
11/09	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-0	7	4	W
05/09	Ceara Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-2	9	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Botafogo SP vs Sport Recife?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Botafogo SP win (36%). Probabilities: Botafogo SP 36%, draw 29%, Sport Recife 34%.

How many goals are expected in Botafogo SP vs Sport Recife?

The model expects 2.65 goals (Botafogo SP 1.35 · Sport Recife 1.31), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Botafogo SP vs Sport Recife?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.