Football · China Super League Women · 19/07, 11:00
Prediction: Shandong (W) vs Beijing (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.36Total
Shandong (W)0.66
Beijing (W)1.7
1X2
Shandong (W)
Draw
Beijing (W)
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 58%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
0-1
Recent form · 10 last
Shandong (W)
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Beijing (W)
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Shandong (W)
0–1–5
Beijing (W)
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Shandong (W) 1446 · Beijing (W) 1589
| Shandong (W) | Draw | Beijing (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 13% | 26% | 61% |
| Market | 14% | 24% | 62% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Beijing (W) (rating 1446 vs 1589).
- H2H favours Beijing (W): 5-1-0.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Shandong (W) | Beijing (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1.3 | 2 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.6 | 0.9 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 60/30/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.9 | 3.1 / 6.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 0.8 / 0 | 1.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Shandong (W) 0–1–5 Beijing (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/25 China Super League Women | Beijing (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Shandong (W) |
| 19/04/25 China Super League Women | Shandong (W) | 0-2 | Beijing (W) |
| 28/09/24 China Super League Women | Shandong (W) | 0-1 | Beijing (W) |
| 23/06/24 China Super League Women | Beijing (W) | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Shandong (W) |
| 27/08/23 China Super League Women | Beijing (W) | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Shandong (W) |
| 12/03/23 China Super League Women | Shandong (W) | 1-4 | Beijing (W) |
Standings · China Super League Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liaoning Shenbei Hefeng (W) | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 3 | 27 |
| 2 | Beijing (W) | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 8 | 25 |
| 3 | Shanghai (W) | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 7 | 21 |
| 4 | Wuhan Jiangda (W) | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 20 |
| 5 | Jiangsu Suning (W) | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 19 |
| 6 | Zhejiang Hangzhou (W) | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 12 |
| 7 | Changchun Dazhong (W) | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 9 |
| 8 | Guangdong (W) | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 8 |
| 9 | Shaanxi Zhidan (W) | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 7 |
| 10 | Sichuan Jiannanchun Women | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 18 | 7 |
| 11 | Shandong (W) | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 7 |
| 12 | Guangxi Pingguo (W) | 10 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 4 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Shandong (W) | Beijing (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Wuhan Jiangda (W) | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Guangxi Pingguo (W) | 0-0 D | 2-0 W |
| Zhejiang Hangzhou (W) | 1-0 W | 4-1 W |
| Changchun Dazhong (W) | 1-1 D | 3-1 W |
| Guangdong (W) | 2-2 D | 1-0 W |
| Liaoning Shenbei Hefeng (W) | 0-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Shaanxi Zhidan (W) | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Shanghai (W) | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Sichuan Jiannanchun Women | 1-1 D | 3-1 W |
| Jiangsu Suning (W) | 1-2 L | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 4 D 5 L | 8 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Beijing (W) (9 of 10 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Shandong (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Wuhan Jiangda (W) China Super League Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 04/07 | Guangxi Pingguo (W) China Super League Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 28/06 | Zhejiang Hangzhou (W) China Super League Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 24/06 | Changchun Dazhong (W) China Super League Women |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 20/06 | Guangdong (W) China Super League Women |
1-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 0 | D |
| 13/06 | Liaoning Shenbei Hefeng (W) China Super League Women |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 17/05 | Shaanxi Zhidan (W) China Super League Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 0 | L |
| 10/05 | Shanghai (W) China Super League Women |
1-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 02/05 | Sichuan Jiannanchun Women China Super League Women |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 26/04 | Jiangsu Suning (W) China Super League Women |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
Beijing (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Shanghai (W) China Super League Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 05/07 | Shaanxi Zhidan (W) China Super League Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 29/06 | Guangxi Pingguo (W) China Super League Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 24/06 | Sichuan Jiannanchun Women China Super League Women |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 19/06 | Changchun Dazhong (W) China Super League Women |
1-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 13/06 | Guangdong (W) China Super League Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Jiangsu Suning (W) China Super League Women |
0-0 | 3-2 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | Wuhan Jiangda (W) China Super League Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 02/05 | Liaoning Shenbei Hefeng (W) China Super League Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 26/04 | Zhejiang Hangzhou (W) China Super League Women |
3-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Shandong (W) vs Beijing (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Beijing (W) win (62%). Probabilities: Shandong (W) 13%, draw 25%, Beijing (W) 62%.
How many goals are expected in Shandong (W) vs Beijing (W)?
The model expects 2.36 goals (Shandong (W) 0.66 · Beijing (W) 1.7), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Shandong (W) vs Beijing (W)?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.