Football · Finland Kolmonen · 11/08, 18:30

Prediction: SalPa 2 vs LTU

Team pages: SalPa 2 · LTU

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.3Total

SalPa 22.09

LTU1.21

1X2

57% 22% 21%

SalPa 2 Draw LTU

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

SalPa 2 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDLWDWLDWL

LTU 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLLLWWLDWW

Head-to-head

SalPa 2 2–1 LTU (3 last)

LTU0-1SalPa 2
LTU8-1SalPa 2
SalPa 23-1LTU

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SalPa 2 1510 · LTU 1503

	SalPa 2	Draw	LTU
Our model	57%	23%	21%
Market	58%	21%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.3 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours SalPa 2: 2-0-1.
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SalPa 2	LTU
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.2	1.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/56/22%	33/22/44%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.2	3 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.55

X4.33

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.93

2 (+1)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.77

Under 3.252.02

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.55 → 1.55	Bet365 1.55
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
19:03 +4’	1.55	4.33	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · SalPa 2 2–0–1 LTU

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	LTU	0-1	SalPa 2
04/10/25 Finland Kolmonen	LTU	8-1	SalPa 2
02/07/25 Finland Kolmonen	SalPa 2	3-1 HT 1-1	LTU

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	IFK Mariehamn II	14	11	1	2	38	13	34
2	EuPa	14	10	2	2	32	10	32
3	PIF Parainen	13	8	2	3	27	14	26
4	VG-62	13	7	0	6	19	17	21
5	SalPa 2	14	6	3	5	19	18	21
6	MaPS	14	6	2	6	23	24	20
7	Peimari United	14	4	7	3	23	18	19
8	KaaPo	14	6	0	8	26	30	18
9	LTU	14	5	2	7	16	19	17
10	JyTy	14	3	2	9	16	37	11
11	ACF	14	1	5	8	11	30	8
12	PiPS	14	2	2	10	13	33	8

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SalPa 2	LTU
IFK Mariehamn II	0-2 L	0-1 L
VG-62	3-1 W	2-1 W
Peimari United	1-1 D	1-0 W
JyTy	2-3 L	2-3 L
KaaPo	2-0 W	0-2 L
PIF Parainen	1-1 D	0-1 L
MaPS	4-2 W	1-3 L
EuPa	0-1 L	0-0 D
ACF	0-0 D	4-1 W
PiPS	2-1 W	4-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: LTU (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SalPa 2

WDLWDWLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	IFK Mariehamn II Finland Kolmonen	–	0-2	–	–	L
28/07	VG-62 Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-1	2	2	W
25/07	Peimari United Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
01/07	JyTy Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-3	9	5	L
23/06	KaaPo Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-0	7	3	W
14/06	PIF Parainen Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
02/06	MaPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	4-2	3	0	W
30/05	EuPa Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
22/05	ACF Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
12/05	PiPS Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-1	12	4	W

LTU

LLLLWWLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	ACF Finland Kolmonen	1-0	4-1	7	6	W
31/07	PiPS Finland Kolmonen	–	4-2	–	–	W
25/07	EuPa Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
04/07	IFK Mariehamn II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-1	0	2	L
26/06	VG-62 Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-1	9	3	W
13/06	Peimari United Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
04/06	JyTy Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-3	14	3	L
29/05	KaaPo Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	8	3	L
22/05	PIF Parainen Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-1	4	1	L
14/05	MaPS Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-3	7	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SalPa 2 vs LTU?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SalPa 2 win (57%). Probabilities: SalPa 2 57%, draw 22%, LTU 21%.

How many goals are expected in SalPa 2 vs LTU?

The model expects 3.3 goals (SalPa 2 2.09 · LTU 1.21), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in SalPa 2 vs LTU?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.