Football · Finland Kolmonen · 25/08, 19:00

Prediction: SalPa 2 vs ACF

Team pages: SalPa 2 · ACF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

SalPa 22.47

ACF0.75

1X2

75% 15% 9%

SalPa 2 Draw ACF

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

SalPa 2 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLWWDLWD

ACF 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

LDDLDLLLDL

Head-to-head

SalPa 2 0–1–0 ACF (1 last)

ACF0-0SalPa 2

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SalPa 2 1508 · ACF 1419

	SalPa 2	Draw	ACF
Our model	74%	17%	9%
Market	76%	14%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SalPa 2 (rating 1508 vs 1419).
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SalPa 2	ACF
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.9	0.6 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.1 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	13/63/25%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 4.9	1.4 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.20

X6.50

29.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)1.93

2 (+2.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.80

Under 3.52.00

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 15:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.20▼	Bet365 1.20
X	5.00 → 6.50▲	Bet365 6.50
2	5.75 → 9.00▲	Bet365 9.00

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 9.8% Pinnacle margin 13.8%

Time*	1	X	2
11:00 +3’	1.33	5.00	5.75
13:56 +6’	1.14▼	7.50▲	11.00▲
14:57 +5’	1.20▲	6.50▼	9.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:02 +1’	1.18	6.02	8.01

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SalPa 2 0–1–0 ACF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	ACF	0-0 HT 0-0	SalPa 2

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EuPa	16	11	3	2	35	11	36
2	IFK Mariehamn II	16	11	2	3	39	15	35
3	PIF Parainen	15	9	3	3	29	15	30
4	Peimari United	16	6	7	3	28	18	25
5	SalPa 2	16	7	3	6	23	20	24
6	MaPS	16	7	2	7	25	26	23
7	LTU	16	7	2	7	20	21	23
8	VG-62	15	7	0	8	19	20	21
9	KaaPo	16	7	0	9	28	33	21
10	JyTy	16	3	3	10	17	40	12
11	ACF	16	2	5	9	13	33	11
12	PiPS	16	2	2	12	14	38	8

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SalPa 2	ACF
PIF Parainen	1-1 D	0-3 L
MaPS	4-2 W	0-3 L
EuPa	0-1 L	0-2 L
PiPS	2-1 W	0-0 D
LTU	1-0 W	0-0 D
IFK Mariehamn II	1-4 L	1-5 L
Peimari United	1-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 3 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: SalPa 2 (7 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SalPa 2

LWLLWWDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/06	PIF Parainen Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
02/06	MaPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	4-2	3	0	W
30/05	EuPa Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
22/05	ACF Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
12/05	PiPS Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-1	12	4	W
09/05	LTU Finland Kolmonen	–	1-0	–	–	W
02/05	IFK Mariehamn II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-4	4	5	L
24/04	VG-62 Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-2	5	4	L
17/04	Peimari United Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
04/10	LTU Finland Kolmonen	–	1-8	–	–	L

ACF

LDDLDLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	EuPa Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
17/06	Peimari United Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
12/06	KaaPo Finland Kolmonen	0-2	3-5	3	1	L
05/06	PIF Parainen Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-3	5	2	L
29/05	MaPS Finland Kolmonen	0-3	0-3	4	3	L
22/05	SalPa 2 Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
14/05	EuPa Finland Kolmonen	–	0-1	–	–	L
08/05	PiPS Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
29/04	LTU Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
25/04	IFK Mariehamn II Finland Kolmonen	–	1-5	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SalPa 2 vs ACF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SalPa 2 win (75%). Probabilities: SalPa 2 75%, draw 15%, ACF 9%.

How many goals are expected in SalPa 2 vs ACF?

The model expects 3.23 goals (SalPa 2 2.47 · ACF 0.75), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in SalPa 2 vs ACF?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.