Football · Finland Kolmonen · 04/09, 17:00

Prediction: ACF vs MaPS

Team pages: ACF · MaPS

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.55Total

ACF1.32

MaPS2.23

1X2

21% 22% 57%

ACF Draw MaPS

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

ACF 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLDWLDLWLL

MaPS 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLDLWWLL

Head-to-head

ACF 0–2 MaPS (2 last)

MaPS3-0ACF
ACF0-4MaPS

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ACF 1423 · MaPS 1470

	ACF	Draw	MaPS
Our model	21%	22%	57%
Market	21%	21%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 3.55 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours MaPS (rating 1423 vs 1470).
H2H favours MaPS: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ACF	MaPS
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.5	1.1 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.3	0.2 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	0/33/67%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.1	2.3 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.1	3.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

14.20

X4.20

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.80

2 (-1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
06:35 +5’	4.20	4.20	1.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · ACF 0–0–2 MaPS

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	MaPS	3-0 HT 3-0	ACF
27/03/26 Finland Cup	ACF	0-4 HT 0-2	MaPS

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EuPa	18	12	4	2	36	11	40
2	IFK Mariehamn II	17	12	2	3	42	17	38
3	PIF Parainen	16	9	4	3	30	16	31
4	SAPA/2	18	8	3	7	26	23	27
5	Peimari United	17	6	8	3	28	18	26
6	LTU	17	7	3	7	21	22	24
7	MaPS	17	7	2	8	26	28	23
8	VG-62	16	7	0	9	20	22	21
9	KaaPo	17	7	0	10	30	36	21
10	JyTy	17	4	3	10	19	41	15
11	ACF	17	2	5	10	15	36	11
12	PiPS	17	3	2	12	16	39	11

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ACF	MaPS
SAPA/2	2-3 L	2-4 L
EuPa	0-2 L	1-5 L
PiPS	2-1 W	1-2 L
LTU	1-4 L	1-2 L
IFK Mariehamn II	2-2 D	1-0 W
VG-62	0-3 L	2-1 W
JyTy	2-0 W	1-1 D
Peimari United	2-2 D	1-2 L
KaaPo	3-5 L	1-2 L
PIF Parainen	0-3 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 6 L	2 W 1 D 7 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ACF

LLDWLDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/08	SAPA/2 Finland Kolmonen	1-2	2-3	1	1	L
21/08	EuPa Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
14/08	PiPS Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-1	6	0	W
07/08	LTU Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-4	0	6	L
02/08	IFK Mariehamn II Finland Kolmonen	1-2	2-2	2	5	D
23/07	VG-62 Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-3	2	2	L
25/06	JyTy Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-0	4	4	W
17/06	Peimari United Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
12/06	KaaPo Finland Kolmonen	0-2	3-5	3	1	L
05/06	PIF Parainen Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-3	5	2	L

MaPS

LLLLDLWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	PiPS Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-2	8	4	L
21/08	LTU Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-2	7	3	L
15/08	IFK Mariehamn II Finland Kolmonen	–	1-0	–	–	W
07/08	VG-62 Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-1	6	4	W
31/07	Peimari United Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-2	5	4	L
23/07	JyTy Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-1	6	2	D
27/06	PIF Parainen Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-2	7	2	L
17/06	KaaPo Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-2	5	9	L
12/06	EuPa Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-5	5	5	L
02/06	SAPA/2 Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-4	9	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ACF vs MaPS?

According to our model, the most likely result is an MaPS win (57%). Probabilities: ACF 21%, draw 22%, MaPS 57%.

How many goals are expected in ACF vs MaPS?

The model expects 3.55 goals (ACF 1.32 · MaPS 2.23), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in ACF vs MaPS?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.