Football · Finland Kolmonen · 04/09, 17:30

Prediction: NoPS vs FC LeKi

Team pages: NoPS · FC LeKi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.99Total

NoPS2.86

FC LeKi1.13

1X2

73% 15% 12%

NoPS Draw FC LeKi

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

NoPS 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

DWLLWWWWWW

FC LeKi 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLWDLWWL

Head-to-head

NoPS 1–0 FC LeKi (1 last)

FC LeKi0-2NoPS

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NoPS 1589 · FC LeKi 1500

	NoPS	Draw	FC LeKi
Our model	72%	16%	12%
Market	73%	14%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 3.99 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NoPS (rating 1589 vs 1500).
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NoPS	FC LeKi
Goals for / against (FT)	3.1 / 0.8	2.6 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.1	0.9 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	38/13/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5.4	2.9 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.22

X6.50

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.85

2 (+2)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 4.252.00

Under 4.251.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 4.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.22	Bet365 1.22
X	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50
2	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
06:34 +7’	1.22	6.50	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · NoPS 1–0–0 FC LeKi

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
29/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	FC LeKi	0-2	NoPS

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 2

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Lasten	17	16	1	0	66	14	49
2	TPV II	18	14	1	3	45	22	43
3	Tampere Utd II	17	12	3	2	38	15	39
4	NoPS	17	12	2	3	56	18	38
5	TP-T	16	7	2	7	42	30	23
6	FC LeKi	16	7	2	7	37	31	23
7	Ylojarvi United	18	7	2	9	37	41	23
8	FC Haka Juniors	18	6	1	11	34	53	19
9	Saaksjærven Loiske	17	5	2	10	22	41	17
10	Fish United	18	3	2	13	20	58	11
11	ACE	17	3	1	13	29	48	10
12	TP-49	17	1	1	15	19	74	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NoPS	FC LeKi
TP-49	4-1 W	6-2 W
Fish United	8-0 W	5-1 W
ACE	2-0 W	2-4 L
Ylojarvi United	4-1 W	1-1 D
Saaksjærven Loiske	2-0 W	3-1 W
FC Haka Juniors	7-0 W	4-1 W
FC Lasten	0-1 L	1-3 L
TPV II	1-5 L	4-2 W
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 2 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: NoPS (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NoPS

DWLLWWWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	TP-49 Finland Kolmonen	–	4-1	–	–	W
20/08	Fish United Finland Kolmonen	3-0	8-0	7	3	W
14/08	ACE Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-0	6	0	W
07/08	Ylojarvi United Finland Kolmonen	–	4-1	–	–	W
31/07	Saaksjærven Loiske Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	8	4	W
24/07	FC Haka Juniors Finland Kolmonen	3-0	7-0	4	3	W
04/07	FC Lasten Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
24/06	TPV II Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-5	6	4	L
16/06	FC Haka Juniors Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-0	2	1	W
12/06	Tampere Utd II Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	6	1	D

FC LeKi

WLWLWDLWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/08	TP-T Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
20/08	TP-49 Finland Kolmonen	–	6-2	–	–	W
13/08	Fish United Finland Kolmonen	–	5-1	–	–	W
07/08	ACE Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-4	5	3	L
01/08	Ylojarvi United Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
24/07	Saaksjærven Loiske Finland Kolmonen	2-1	3-1	2	3	W
17/07	TP-T Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	3	6	L
03/07	FC Haka Juniors Finland Kolmonen	2-1	4-1	9	2	W
25/06	FC Lasten Finland Kolmonen	1-2	1-3	5	5	L
12/06	TPV II Finland Kolmonen	1-0	4-2	13	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NoPS vs FC LeKi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NoPS win (73%). Probabilities: NoPS 73%, draw 15%, FC LeKi 12%.

How many goals are expected in NoPS vs FC LeKi?

The model expects 3.99 goals (NoPS 2.86 · FC LeKi 1.13), with a 55% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in NoPS vs FC LeKi?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.