Football · Finland Kolmonen · 14/08, 17:30

Prediction: KeuPa vs FCJ Blackbird

Team pages: KeuPa · FCJ Blackbird

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.71Total

KeuPa1.55

FCJ Blackbird2.16

1X2

28% 21% 51%

KeuPa Draw FCJ Blackbird

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

KeuPa 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDWLLLWWDW

FCJ Blackbird 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWDLLWDW

Head-to-head

KeuPa 1–1–4 FCJ Blackbird (6 last)

FCJ Blackbird3-0KeuPa
KeuPa3-3FCJ Blackbird
FCJ Blackbird1-0KeuPa
KeuPa1-3FCJ Blackbird
FCJ Blackbird5-0KeuPa
FCJ Blackbird2-3KeuPa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KeuPa 1508 · FCJ Blackbird 1544

	KeuPa	Draw	FCJ Blackbird
Our model	27%	22%	51%
Market	28%	20%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 3.71 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FCJ Blackbird: 4-1-1.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KeuPa	FCJ Blackbird
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.7	2.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 1	1.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/25/75%	67/17/17%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.4	3 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.1	2.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.20

X4.50

21.73

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.93

2 (-0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.98

Under 4.251.82

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
05:54 +7’	3.20	4.50	1.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · KeuPa 1–1–4 FCJ Blackbird

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/06/26 Finland Kolmonen	FCJ Blackbird	3-0 HT 1-0	KeuPa
24/04/26 Finland Kolmonen	KeuPa	3-3 HT 2-2	FCJ Blackbird
22/08/25 Finland Kolmonen	FCJ Blackbird	1-0 HT 0-0	KeuPa
18/06/25 Finland Kolmonen	KeuPa	1-3	FCJ Blackbird
02/05/25 Finland Kolmonen	FCJ Blackbird	5-0 HT 4-0	KeuPa
26/04/24 Finland Kolmonen	FCJ Blackbird	2-3	KeuPa

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Eastern, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	JPS	13	9	4	0	47	8	31
2	FCJ Blackbird	13	7	4	2	37	20	25
3	FC Metso	12	6	3	3	32	26	21
4	KeuPa	12	4	5	3	22	23	17
5	JJK/2	12	5	1	6	23	36	16
6	Savon Pallo	13	4	2	7	28	32	14
7	Komeetat	13	3	2	8	16	24	11
8	FC Vaajakoski II	14	2	1	11	19	55	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KeuPa	FCJ Blackbird
Komeetat	1-0 W	2-0 W
Savon Pallo	2-2 D	0-2 L
FC Vaajakoski II	5-1 W	1-4 L
FC Metso	1-0 W	2-2 D
JPS	0-3 L	1-1 D
JJK/2	3-5 L	6-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KeuPa

DDWLLLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Komeetat Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
31/07	Savon Pallo Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-2	7	3	D
24/07	FC Vaajakoski II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	5-1	3	1	W
19/07	FC Metso Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
24/06	JPS Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-3	3	0	L
17/06	JJK/2 Finland Kolmonen	1-2	3-5	7	2	L
12/06	FCJ Blackbird Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-3	4	2	L
05/06	Komeetat Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-1	4	6	W
20/05	FC Vaajakoski II Finland Kolmonen	–	2-2	–	–	D
15/05	FC Metso Finland Kolmonen	–	0-0	–	–	D

FCJ Blackbird

WDWWDLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	JJK/2 Finland Kolmonen	2-0	6-0	12	1	W
29/07	JPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
22/07	Komeetat Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	7	4	W
17/07	Savon Pallo Finland Kolmonen	–	0-2	–	–	L
25/06	FC Vaajakoski II Finland Kolmonen	–	1-4	–	–	L
16/06	FC Metso Finland Kolmonen	–	2-2	–	–	D
12/06	KeuPa Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-0	6	2	W
05/06	JJK/2 Finland Kolmonen	2-1	5-1	4	0	W
29/05	JPS Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
22/05	Komeetat Finland Kolmonen	–	4-3	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KeuPa vs FCJ Blackbird?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FCJ Blackbird win (51%). Probabilities: KeuPa 28%, draw 21%, FCJ Blackbird 51%.

How many goals are expected in KeuPa vs FCJ Blackbird?

The model expects 3.71 goals (KeuPa 1.55 · FCJ Blackbird 2.16), with a 58% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in KeuPa vs FCJ Blackbird?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.