Football · Finland Kolmonen · 19/08, 18:00

Prediction: FCJ Blackbird vs FC Metso

Team pages: FCJ Blackbird · FC Metso

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.21Total

FCJ Blackbird2.5

FC Metso1.7

1X2

55% 20% 25%

FCJ Blackbird Draw FC Metso

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

FCJ Blackbird 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWWDLLWDWL

FC Metso 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWDWLWLW

Head-to-head

FCJ Blackbird 0–2–0 FC Metso (2 last)

FC Metso2-2FCJ Blackbird
FCJ Blackbird1-1FC Metso

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FCJ Blackbird 1512 · FC Metso 1538

	FCJ Blackbird	Draw	FC Metso
Our model	55%	20%	25%
Market	54%	21%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 4.21 goals · Bet365 line 4.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FCJ Blackbird	FC Metso
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.4	2.9 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.4	1.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	71/14/14%	43/29/29%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6	2.4 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0	2.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.65

X4.33

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.00

2 (+1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.95

Under 4.251.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 4.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.66 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
16:24 +1’	1.65	4.33	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:23 +2’	1.64	4.21	3.66

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FCJ Blackbird 0–2–0 FC Metso

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/06/26 Finland Kolmonen	FC Metso	2-2	FCJ Blackbird
29/04/26 Finland Kolmonen	FCJ Blackbird	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Metso

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Eastern, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	JPS	13	9	4	0	47	8	31
2	FC Metso	14	8	3	3	40	29	27
3	FCJ Blackbird	15	7	4	4	40	27	25
4	KeuPa	13	5	5	3	25	25	20
5	JJK/2	12	5	1	6	23	36	16
6	Savon Pallo	14	4	2	8	29	34	14
7	Komeetat	14	3	2	9	18	28	11
8	FC Vaajakoski II	15	3	1	11	21	56	10

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FCJ Blackbird	FC Metso
KeuPa	2-3 L	0-1 L
JJK/2	6-0 W	3-2 W
JPS	1-1 D	0-5 L
Komeetat	2-0 W	4-2 W
Savon Pallo	0-2 L	2-8 L
FC Vaajakoski II	1-4 L	7-3 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FCJ Blackbird (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FCJ Blackbird

DWWDLLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	KeuPa Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-3	5	2	L
07/08	JJK/2 Finland Kolmonen	2-0	6-0	12	1	W
29/07	JPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
22/07	Komeetat Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	7	4	W
17/07	Savon Pallo Finland Kolmonen	–	0-2	–	–	L
25/06	FC Vaajakoski II Finland Kolmonen	–	1-4	–	–	L
16/06	FC Metso Finland Kolmonen	–	2-2	–	–	D
12/06	KeuPa Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-0	6	2	W
05/06	JJK/2 Finland Kolmonen	2-1	5-1	4	0	W
29/05	JPS Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-1	5	3	D

FC Metso

LWWWDWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Komeetat Finland Kolmonen	4-0	4-2	4	5	W
07/08	Savon Pallo Finland Kolmonen	–	2-8	–	–	L
31/07	FC Vaajakoski II Finland Kolmonen	0-2	7-3	2	0	W
19/07	KeuPa Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
24/06	JJK/2 Finland Kolmonen	0-1	3-2	6	3	W
16/06	FCJ Blackbird Finland Kolmonen	–	2-2	–	–	D
12/06	Komeetat Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	13	3	W
03/06	Savon Pallo Finland Kolmonen	3-0	6-0	7	2	W
28/05	FC Vaajakoski II Finland Kolmonen	0-0	3-1	6	1	W
22/05	JPS Finland Kolmonen	–	0-5	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FCJ Blackbird vs FC Metso?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FCJ Blackbird win (55%). Probabilities: FCJ Blackbird 55%, draw 20%, FC Metso 25%.

How many goals are expected in FCJ Blackbird vs FC Metso?

The model expects 4.21 goals (FCJ Blackbird 2.5 · FC Metso 1.7), with a 52% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FCJ Blackbird vs FC Metso?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.