Football · Iceland 3 Deild · 14/08, 20:00

Prediction: Vidir Gardur vs KA Asvellir

Team pages: Vidir Gardur · KA Asvellir

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.39Total

Vidir Gardur3.18

KA Asvellir1.21

1X2

76% 13% 11%

Vidir Gardur Draw KA Asvellir

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

3-1

Recent form · 10 last

Vidir Gardur 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLWDDLWW

KA Asvellir 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLWDLLLWLW

Head-to-head

Vidir Gardur 1–0 KA Asvellir (1 last)

KA Asvellir1-4Vidir Gardur

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vidir Gardur 1565 · KA Asvellir 1441

	Vidir Gardur	Draw	KA Asvellir
Our model	75%	14%	11%
Market	76%	13%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 4.39 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vidir Gardur (rating 1565 vs 1441).
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vidir Gardur	KA Asvellir
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 0.9	1.5 / 3.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.6	0.6 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6	2 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.3	5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.18

X7.00

28.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.25)1.85

2 (+2.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 41.82

Under 41.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 4.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.18 → 1.18	Bet365 1.18
X	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00
2	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
06:05 +1’	1.18	7.00	8.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Vidir Gardur 1–0–0 KA Asvellir

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/06/26 Iceland 3 Deild	KA Asvellir	1-4 HT 1-0	Vidir Gardur

Standings · Iceland 3 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vidir Gardur	16	10	3	3	39	17	33
2	Reynir Sandgerdi	16	10	2	4	49	31	32
3	KH Hlidarendi	16	9	4	3	46	21	31
4	Tindastoll	16	10	1	5	40	28	31
5	KV Vesturbaer	16	9	2	5	47	43	29
6	Hottur/Huginn	16	5	7	4	23	22	22
7	KF Fjallabyggd	16	5	6	5	22	27	21
8	Augnablik Kopavogur	16	5	3	8	32	37	18
9	KA Asvellir	16	5	1	10	27	50	16
10	Ymir Kopavogur	16	4	3	9	24	36	15
11	Sindri	16	4	2	10	23	39	14
12	FC Arbaer	16	2	2	12	21	42	8

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vidir Gardur	KA Asvellir
Ymir Kopavogur	5-1 W	0-2 L
KF Fjallabyggd	5-0 W	1-2 L
Sindri	0-1 L	2-1 W
KH Hlidarendi	1-1 D	0-7 L
Augnablik Kopavogur	0-0 D	3-2 W
Tindastoll	3-0 W	3-7 L
KV Vesturbaer	3-5 L	1-3 L
Reynir Sandgerdi	5-0 W	2-7 L
Hottur/Huginn	2-1 W	1-1 D
FC Arbaer	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	6 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Vidir Gardur (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vidir Gardur

WWWLWDDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Ymir Kopavogur Iceland 3 Deild	2-0	5-1	7	2	W
29/07	KF Fjallabyggd Iceland 3 Deild	1-0	5-0	–	–	W
25/07	Sindri Iceland 3 Deild	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
17/07	KH Hlidarendi Iceland 3 Deild	1-1	1-1	6	6	D
13/07	Augnablik Kopavogur Iceland 3 Deild	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
04/07	Tindastoll Iceland 3 Deild	0-0	3-0	3	7	W
26/06	KV Vesturbaer Iceland 3 Deild	1-3	3-5	–	–	L
19/06	Reynir Sandgerdi Iceland 3 Deild	3-0	5-0	4	2	W
14/06	Hottur/Huginn Iceland 3 Deild	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
10/06	FC Arbaer Iceland 3 Deild	1-0	1-0	9	5	W

KA Asvellir

LLWDLLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Sindri Iceland 3 Deild	2-0	2-1	2	7	W
29/07	KH Hlidarendi Iceland 3 Deild	0-4	0-7	–	–	L
23/07	Augnablik Kopavogur Iceland 3 Deild	3-0	3-2	–	–	W
17/07	Tindastoll Iceland 3 Deild	0-3	3-7	6	6	L
10/07	KV Vesturbaer Iceland 3 Deild	1-1	1-3	3	3	L
03/07	Reynir Sandgerdi Iceland 3 Deild	0-4	2-7	–	–	L
27/06	Hottur/Huginn Iceland 3 Deild	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
19/06	FC Arbaer Iceland 3 Deild	0-0	2-1	4	4	W
14/06	KF Fjallabyggd Iceland 3 Deild	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
11/06	Ymir Kopavogur Iceland 3 Deild	0-1	0-2	4	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vidir Gardur vs KA Asvellir?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vidir Gardur win (76%). Probabilities: Vidir Gardur 76%, draw 13%, KA Asvellir 11%.

How many goals are expected in Vidir Gardur vs KA Asvellir?

The model expects 4.39 goals (Vidir Gardur 3.18 · KA Asvellir 1.21), with a 53% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Vidir Gardur vs KA Asvellir?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.