Football · Iceland 3 Deild · 19/08, 21:15

Prediction: KA Asvellir vs Ymir Kopavogur

Team pages: KA Asvellir · Ymir Kopavogur

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.84Total

KA Asvellir1.86

Ymir Kopavogur1.99

1X2

36% 22% 42%

KA Asvellir Draw Ymir Kopavogur

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

KA Asvellir 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWDLLLWLWL

Ymir Kopavogur 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DLWLLWLLLD

Head-to-head

KA Asvellir 0–2–2 Ymir Kopavogur (4 last)

Ymir Kopavogur2-0KA Asvellir
KA Asvellir3-3Ymir Kopavogur
Ymir Kopavogur1-0KA Asvellir
KA Asvellir2-2Ymir Kopavogur

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KA Asvellir 1444 · Ymir Kopavogur 1455

	KA Asvellir	Draw	Ymir Kopavogur
Our model	36%	23%	41%
Market	37%	21%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 3.84 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Ymir Kopavogur: 2-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KA Asvellir	Ymir Kopavogur
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 3.5	1.2 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.6	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.2	1.6 / 2.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.45

X4.20

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.88

2 (-0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.82

Under 3.751.98

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 4.25

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 09:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.45▲	Pinn 2.47
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	2.30 → 2.15▼	Pinn 2.22 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
04:18 +9’	2.30	4.20	2.30
23:37 +9’	2.55▲	4.20	2.05▼
09:17 +6’	2.45▼	4.20	2.15▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:46	2.59	4.00	2.13
01:53 +2’	2.56▼	3.98▼	2.16▲
04:33	2.50▼	3.96▼	2.21▲
12:29 +3’	2.47▼	3.99▲	2.22▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · KA Asvellir 0–2–2 Ymir Kopavogur

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/06/26 Iceland 3 Deild	Ymir Kopavogur	2-0 HT 1-0	KA Asvellir
23/07/24 Iceland 4 Deild	KA Asvellir	3-3 HT 2-0	Ymir Kopavogur
20/05/24 Iceland 4 Deild	Ymir Kopavogur	1-0 HT 1-0	KA Asvellir
02/07/21 Iceland 4 Deild	KA Asvellir	2-2 HT 1-1	Ymir Kopavogur

Standings · Iceland 3 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vidir Gardur	17	11	3	3	43	17	36
2	Reynir Sandgerdi	17	11	2	4	52	33	35
3	KH Hlidarendi	17	10	4	3	50	22	34
4	Tindastoll	17	11	1	5	43	30	34
5	KV Vesturbaer	17	9	2	6	49	46	29
6	Hottur/Huginn	17	5	7	5	24	26	22
7	KF Fjallabyggd	17	5	7	5	23	28	22
8	Augnablik Kopavogur	17	5	3	9	34	40	18
9	Sindri	17	5	2	10	28	41	17
10	Ymir Kopavogur	17	4	4	9	25	37	16
11	KA Asvellir	17	5	1	11	27	54	16
12	FC Arbaer	17	2	2	13	23	47	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KA Asvellir	Ymir Kopavogur
Vidir Gardur	0-4 L	1-5 L
Sindri	2-1 W	1-3 L
KH Hlidarendi	0-7 L	1-0 W
Augnablik Kopavogur	3-2 W	1-3 L
Tindastoll	3-7 L	1-2 L
KV Vesturbaer	1-3 L	2-3 L
Reynir Sandgerdi	2-7 L	2-2 D
KF Fjallabyggd	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 6 L	1 W 2 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Ymir Kopavogur (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

KA Asvellir

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Vidir Gardur Iceland 3 Deild	0-2	0-4	1	2	L
08/08	Sindri Iceland 3 Deild	2-0	2-1	2	7	W
29/07	KH Hlidarendi Iceland 3 Deild	0-4	0-7	–	–	L
23/07	Augnablik Kopavogur Iceland 3 Deild	3-0	3-2	–	–	W
17/07	Tindastoll Iceland 3 Deild	0-3	3-7	6	6	L
10/07	KV Vesturbaer Iceland 3 Deild	1-1	1-3	3	3	L
03/07	Reynir Sandgerdi Iceland 3 Deild	0-4	2-7	–	–	L
27/06	Hottur/Huginn Iceland 3 Deild	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
19/06	FC Arbaer Iceland 3 Deild	0-0	2-1	4	4	W
14/06	KF Fjallabyggd Iceland 3 Deild	0-2	1-2	–	–	L

Ymir Kopavogur

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	KF Fjallabyggd Iceland 3 Deild	0-0	1-1	2	7	D
11/08	Sindri Iceland 3 Deild	0-2	1-3	–	–	L
08/08	Vidir Gardur Iceland 3 Deild	0-2	1-5	0	2	L
04/08	UMF Selfoss Iceland Lower League Cup	0-1	0-4	4	2	L
24/07	KH Hlidarendi Iceland 3 Deild	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
17/07	Augnablik Kopavogur Iceland 3 Deild	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
12/07	Tindastoll Iceland 3 Deild	0-0	1-2	0	6	L
08/07	Hviti Riddarinn Iceland Lower League Cup	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
02/07	KV Vesturbaer Iceland 3 Deild	0-1	2-3	9	5	L
28/06	Reynir Sandgerdi Iceland 3 Deild	2-1	2-2	2	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KA Asvellir vs Ymir Kopavogur?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Ymir Kopavogur win (42%). Probabilities: KA Asvellir 36%, draw 22%, Ymir Kopavogur 42%.

How many goals are expected in KA Asvellir vs Ymir Kopavogur?

The model expects 3.84 goals (KA Asvellir 1.86 · Ymir Kopavogur 1.99), with a 50% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in KA Asvellir vs Ymir Kopavogur?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.