Football · Iceland 3 Deild · 15/08, 18:00

Prediction: Ymir Kopavogur vs KF Fjallabyggd

Team pages: Ymir Kopavogur · KF Fjallabyggd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.57Total

Ymir Kopavogur1.68

KF Fjallabyggd1.89

1X2

34% 24% 42%

Ymir Kopavogur Draw KF Fjallabyggd

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Ymir Kopavogur 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LDLWLLWLLL

KF Fjallabyggd 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDWDWLLD

Head-to-head

Ymir Kopavogur 1–2–0 KF Fjallabyggd (3 last)

KF Fjallabyggd0-0Ymir Kopavogur
Ymir Kopavogur4-3KF Fjallabyggd
KF Fjallabyggd1-1Ymir Kopavogur

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ymir Kopavogur 1443 · KF Fjallabyggd 1516

	Ymir Kopavogur	Draw	KF Fjallabyggd
Our model	34%	24%	42%
Market	33%	25%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 3.57 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KF Fjallabyggd (rating 1443 vs 1516).
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ymir Kopavogur	KF Fjallabyggd
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.5	1.7 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	1.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 2.9	4.3 / 7.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	2.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.60

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.80

Under 3.52.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.88 ★
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
21:26 +3’	2.70	3.60	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:22 +7’	2.65	3.87	2.13
02:23	2.61▼	3.88▲	2.15▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ymir Kopavogur 1–2–0 KF Fjallabyggd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/06/26 Iceland 3 Deild	KF Fjallabyggd	0-0 HT 0-0	Ymir Kopavogur
16/08/25 Iceland 3 Deild	Ymir Kopavogur	4-3 HT 1-1	KF Fjallabyggd
09/06/25 Iceland 3 Deild	KF Fjallabyggd	1-1 HT 1-0	Ymir Kopavogur

Standings · Iceland 3 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vidir Gardur	17	11	3	3	43	17	36
2	Reynir Sandgerdi	16	10	2	4	49	31	32
3	KH Hlidarendi	16	9	4	3	46	21	31
4	Tindastoll	16	10	1	5	40	28	31
5	KV Vesturbaer	16	9	2	5	47	43	29
6	Hottur/Huginn	16	5	7	4	23	22	22
7	KF Fjallabyggd	16	5	6	5	22	27	21
8	Augnablik Kopavogur	16	5	3	8	32	37	18
9	KA Asvellir	17	5	1	11	27	54	16
10	Ymir Kopavogur	16	4	3	9	24	36	15
11	Sindri	16	4	2	10	23	39	14
12	FC Arbaer	16	2	2	12	21	42	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ymir Kopavogur	KF Fjallabyggd
Sindri	1-3 L	2-0 W
Vidir Gardur	1-5 L	0-5 L
KH Hlidarendi	1-0 W	1-0 W
Augnablik Kopavogur	1-3 L	3-1 W
Tindastoll	1-2 L	3-1 W
KV Vesturbaer	2-3 L	4-4 D
Reynir Sandgerdi	2-2 D	0-3 L
Hottur/Huginn	2-3 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 6 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: KF Fjallabyggd (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Ymir Kopavogur

LDLWLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/08	Sindri Iceland 3 Deild	0-2	1-3	–	–	L
08/08	Vidir Gardur Iceland 3 Deild	0-2	1-5	0	2	L
04/08	UMF Selfoss Iceland Lower League Cup	0-1	0-4	4	2	L
24/07	KH Hlidarendi Iceland 3 Deild	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
17/07	Augnablik Kopavogur Iceland 3 Deild	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
12/07	Tindastoll Iceland 3 Deild	0-0	1-2	0	6	L
08/07	Hviti Riddarinn Iceland Lower League Cup	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
02/07	KV Vesturbaer Iceland 3 Deild	0-1	2-3	9	5	L
28/06	Reynir Sandgerdi Iceland 3 Deild	2-1	2-2	2	2	D
21/06	Hottur/Huginn Iceland 3 Deild	1-1	2-3	3	4	L

KF Fjallabyggd

WWWDWDWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	KV Vesturbaer Iceland 3 Deild	4-2	4-4	9	5	D
29/07	Vidir Gardur Iceland 3 Deild	0-1	0-5	–	–	L
25/07	Reynir Sandgerdi Iceland 3 Deild	0-2	0-3	10	1	L
18/07	Sindri Iceland 3 Deild	2-0	2-0	10	3	W
12/07	Hottur/Huginn Iceland 3 Deild	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
04/07	KH Hlidarendi Iceland 3 Deild	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
27/06	FC Arbaer Iceland 3 Deild	1-0	2-2	12	1	D
20/06	Augnablik Kopavogur Iceland 3 Deild	1-1	3-1	2	4	W
14/06	KA Asvellir Iceland 3 Deild	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
10/06	Tindastoll Iceland 3 Deild	2-1	3-1	1	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ymir Kopavogur vs KF Fjallabyggd?

According to our model, the most likely result is an KF Fjallabyggd win (42%). Probabilities: Ymir Kopavogur 34%, draw 24%, KF Fjallabyggd 42%.

How many goals are expected in Ymir Kopavogur vs KF Fjallabyggd?

The model expects 3.57 goals (Ymir Kopavogur 1.68 · KF Fjallabyggd 1.89), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Ymir Kopavogur vs KF Fjallabyggd?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.