Football · Iceland 3 Deild · 08/08, 16:00

Prediction: Ymir Kopavogur vs Vidir Gardur

Team pages: Ymir Kopavogur · Vidir Gardur

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.3Total

Ymir Kopavogur1.3

Vidir Gardur1.99

1X2

25% 22% 53%

Ymir Kopavogur Draw Vidir Gardur

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Ymir Kopavogur 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWLDLWLLWL

Vidir Gardur 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWDDLW

Head-to-head

Ymir Kopavogur 1–2–2 Vidir Gardur (5 last)

Vidir Gardur3-1Ymir Kopavogur
Ymir Kopavogur2-2Vidir Gardur
Ymir Kopavogur2-2Vidir Gardur
Ymir Kopavogur4-1Vidir Gardur
Vidir Gardur4-1Ymir Kopavogur

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ymir Kopavogur 1466 · Vidir Gardur 1552

	Ymir Kopavogur	Draw	Vidir Gardur
Our model	24%	24%	52%
Market	25%	21%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 3.3 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vidir Gardur (rating 1466 vs 1552).
H2H favours Vidir Gardur: 2-2-1.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ymir Kopavogur	Vidir Gardur
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.7	2.4 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4	3.7 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	4.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.50

X4.33

21.65

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.98

2 (-0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.52.00

Under 3.51.80

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 16:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 3.50▼	Pinn 4.57 ★
X	4.50 → 4.33▼	Bet365 4.33
2	1.55 → 1.65▲	Bet365 1.65

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 12.3% Pinnacle margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
09:19 +1’	4.00	4.50	1.55
12:29 +2’	4.10▲	4.50	1.53▼
14:45 +1’	4.00▼	4.50	1.53
16:50 +3’	3.50▼	4.33▼	1.65▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:52	4.57	4.21	1.54

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ymir Kopavogur 1–2–2 Vidir Gardur

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/06/26 Iceland 3 Deild	Vidir Gardur	3-1 HT 2-1	Ymir Kopavogur
13/02/26 Iceland League Cup B	Ymir Kopavogur	2-2 HT 1-2	Vidir Gardur
21/03/25 Iceland League Cup B	Ymir Kopavogur	2-2 HT 0-1	Vidir Gardur
31/08/23 Iceland 3 Deild	Ymir Kopavogur	4-1 HT 1-0	Vidir Gardur
25/06/23 Iceland 3 Deild	Vidir Gardur	4-1 HT 2-0	Ymir Kopavogur

Standings · Iceland 3 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tindastoll	15	10	1	4	40	23	31
2	Vidir Gardur	15	9	3	3	34	16	30
3	Reynir Sandgerdi	15	9	2	4	44	31	29
4	KH Hlidarendi	15	8	4	3	44	20	28
5	KV Vesturbaer	15	9	1	5	43	39	28
6	KF Fjallabyggd	15	5	5	5	18	23	20
7	Hottur/Huginn	15	4	7	4	19	21	19
8	Augnablik Kopavogur	15	5	3	7	31	33	18
9	Ymir Kopavogur	14	4	3	7	22	28	15
10	KA Asvellir	15	4	1	10	25	49	13
11	Sindri	14	3	2	9	19	36	11
12	FC Arbaer	15	2	2	11	20	40	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ymir Kopavogur	Vidir Gardur
KH Hlidarendi	1-0 W	1-1 D
Augnablik Kopavogur	1-3 L	0-0 D
Tindastoll	1-2 L	3-0 W
KV Vesturbaer	2-3 L	3-5 L
Reynir Sandgerdi	2-2 D	5-0 W
Hottur/Huginn	2-3 L	2-1 W
KA Asvellir	2-0 W	4-1 W
KF Fjallabyggd	0-0 D	5-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	5 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Vidir Gardur (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Ymir Kopavogur

DWLDLWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/08	UMF Selfoss Iceland Lower League Cup	0-1	0-4	4	2	L
24/07	KH Hlidarendi Iceland 3 Deild	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
17/07	Augnablik Kopavogur Iceland 3 Deild	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
12/07	Tindastoll Iceland 3 Deild	0-0	1-2	0	6	L
08/07	Hviti Riddarinn Iceland Lower League Cup	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
02/07	KV Vesturbaer Iceland 3 Deild	0-1	2-3	9	5	L
28/06	Reynir Sandgerdi Iceland 3 Deild	2-1	2-2	2	2	D
21/06	Hottur/Huginn Iceland 3 Deild	1-1	2-3	3	4	L
11/06	KA Asvellir Iceland 3 Deild	1-0	2-0	9	6	W
06/06	KF Fjallabyggd Iceland 3 Deild	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

Vidir Gardur

WWWWLWDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/07	KF Fjallabyggd Iceland 3 Deild	1-0	5-0	–	–	W
25/07	Sindri Iceland 3 Deild	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
17/07	KH Hlidarendi Iceland 3 Deild	1-1	1-1	6	6	D
13/07	Augnablik Kopavogur Iceland 3 Deild	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
04/07	Tindastoll Iceland 3 Deild	0-0	3-0	3	7	W
26/06	KV Vesturbaer Iceland 3 Deild	1-3	3-5	–	–	L
19/06	Reynir Sandgerdi Iceland 3 Deild	3-0	5-0	4	2	W
14/06	Hottur/Huginn Iceland 3 Deild	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
10/06	FC Arbaer Iceland 3 Deild	1-0	1-0	9	5	W
06/06	KA Asvellir Iceland 3 Deild	0-1	4-1	13	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ymir Kopavogur vs Vidir Gardur?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Vidir Gardur win (53%). Probabilities: Ymir Kopavogur 25%, draw 22%, Vidir Gardur 53%.

How many goals are expected in Ymir Kopavogur vs Vidir Gardur?

The model expects 3.3 goals (Ymir Kopavogur 1.3 · Vidir Gardur 1.99), with a 55% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Ymir Kopavogur vs Vidir Gardur?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.