Football · Iceland 2 Deild · 18/07, 16:00

Prediction: Fjardabyggd vs UMF Selfoss

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.36Total

Fjardabyggd2.19

UMF Selfoss2.17

1X2

40% 21% 39%

Fjardabyggd Draw UMF Selfoss

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

2-2

Recent form · 10 last

Fjardabyggd 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWLLDLWD

UMF Selfoss 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWWDWLDWWD

Head-to-head

Fjardabyggd 1–1–4 UMF Selfoss (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fjardabyggd 1499 · UMF Selfoss 1541

	Fjardabyggd	Draw	UMF Selfoss
Our model	40%	21%	39%
Market	40%	21%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 4.36 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours UMF Selfoss (rating 1499 vs 1541).
H2H favours UMF Selfoss: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fjardabyggd	UMF Selfoss
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.8	2.6 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.6	1.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5	3.2 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.25

X4.20

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 41.90

Under 41.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 4.25

View on Bet365 ↗

Market odds journey

We have no recommendation published on this match: this is just how the market has moved at the two bookmakers we track. It's market data, not something we recommend.

We only show the match winner: it's the only market both bookmakers offer as exactly the same bet. On the goal line and the handicap each bookmaker uses its own line, so putting them side by side would mean comparing different bets.

Bet365 margin 11.7%

First time we saw it

1 2.25 X 4.20 2 2.30

The bookmaker moved it 09:09 We saw it 09:10 +2 min

Last check: 11:21. We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Fjardabyggd 1–1–4 UMF Selfoss

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Iceland 2 Deild	UMF Selfoss	2-4 HT 1-4	Fjardabyggd
27/07/24 Iceland 2 Deild	Fjardabyggd	0-1 HT 0-1	UMF Selfoss
18/05/24 Iceland 2 Deild	UMF Selfoss	2-1 HT 1-0	Fjardabyggd
06/09/20 Iceland 2 Deild	Fjardabyggd	0-1	UMF Selfoss
11/07/20 Iceland 2 Deild	UMF Selfoss	0-0 HT 0-0	Fjardabyggd
20/07/19 Iceland 2 Deild	Fjardabyggd	1-3	UMF Selfoss

Standings · Iceland 2 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Haukar	12	8	2	2	33	16	26
2	Dalvik/Reynir	12	6	2	4	22	19	20
3	UMF Selfoss	12	5	5	2	26	24	20
4	Kari	12	4	6	2	31	22	18
5	Fjolnir	12	5	3	4	30	23	18
6	Kormakur/Hvot	12	4	5	3	26	14	17
7	Vikingur Olafsvik	12	4	3	5	16	23	15
8	Fjardabyggd	12	4	2	6	29	24	14
9	Throttur Vogar	12	4	1	7	20	24	13
10	Hviti Riddarinn	12	2	7	3	17	21	13
11	KFG Gardabaer	12	4	0	8	17	37	12
12	Magni Grenivik	12	3	2	7	18	38	11

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fjardabyggd	UMF Selfoss
Kari	2-2 D	2-2 D
Vikingur Olafsvik	3-0 W	3-1 W
Dalvik/Reynir	0-1 L	2-2 D
Hviti Riddarinn	3-4 L	2-2 D
Fjolnir	2-3 L	3-2 W
KFG Gardabaer	5-1 W	3-2 W
Haukar	2-3 L	2-2 D
Magni Grenivik	4-0 W	1-4 L
Throttur Vogar	0-2 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 5 L	4 W 4 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: UMF Selfoss (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Fjardabyggd

LWLWLLDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/07	Kari Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	2-2	3	0	D
04/07	Vikingur Olafsvik Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	3-0	1	3	W
27/06	Dalvik/Reynir Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	0-1	5	9	L
20/06	Kormakur/Hvot Iceland 2 Deild	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
14/06	Hviti Riddarinn Iceland 2 Deild	2-3	3-4	9	10	L
10/06	Fjolnir Iceland 2 Deild	1-0	2-3	7	1	L
06/06	KFG Gardabaer Iceland 2 Deild	3-1	5-1	12	6	W
31/05	Haukar Iceland 2 Deild	1-1	2-3	2	5	L
23/05	Magni Grenivik Iceland 2 Deild	4-0	4-0	5	5	W
14/05	Throttur Vogar Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	0-2	1	4	L

UMF Selfoss

DWWDWLDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/07	Hviti Riddarinn Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	2-2	10	3	D
08/07	Arborg Iceland Lower League Cup	4-0	5-0	12	1	W
03/07	KFG Gardabaer Iceland 2 Deild	2-1	3-2	2	4	W
26/06	Haukar Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	2-2	5	5	D
20/06	Magni Grenivik Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	1-4	7	5	L
15/06	Throttur Vogar Iceland 2 Deild	1-0	3-1	6	5	W
10/06	Kari Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	2-2	7	6	D
06/06	Fjolnir Iceland 2 Deild	1-0	3-2	6	4	W
31/05	Vikingur Olafsvik Iceland 2 Deild	2-0	3-1	7	3	W
23/05	Dalvik/Reynir Iceland 2 Deild	2-1	2-2	4	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fjardabyggd vs UMF Selfoss?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fjardabyggd win (40%). Probabilities: Fjardabyggd 40%, draw 21%, UMF Selfoss 39%.

How many goals are expected in Fjardabyggd vs UMF Selfoss?

The model expects 4.36 goals (Fjardabyggd 2.19 · UMF Selfoss 2.17), with a 52% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Fjardabyggd vs UMF Selfoss?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-2.