Football · Iceland 2 Deild · 25/07, 18:00

Prediction: Magni Grenivik vs KFG Gardabaer

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.4Total

Magni Grenivik2.68

KFG Gardabaer1.72

1X2

57% 20% 23%

Magni Grenivik Draw KFG Gardabaer

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Magni Grenivik 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LDLLLWDWLW

KFG Gardabaer 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LWLWWLLLLL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Magni Grenivik 1476 · KFG Gardabaer 1427

	Magni Grenivik	Draw	KFG Gardabaer
Our model	58%	19%	23%
Market	57%	21%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 4.4 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 82%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Magni Grenivik (rating 1476 vs 1427).
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Magni Grenivik	KFG Gardabaer
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 2.9	1.3 / 3.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.7	0.6 / 2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	0/30/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.9	2.4 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.3	4.7 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.57

X4.33

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.88

2 (+1)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 4.252.00

Under 4.251.80

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 4.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
03:07 +6’	1.57	4.33	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Iceland 2 Deild

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Haukar	13	9	2	2	35	17	29
2	UMF Selfoss	13	6	5	2	27	24	23
3	Kari	13	5	6	2	36	23	21
4	Kormakur/Hvot	13	5	5	3	29	15	20
5	Dalvik/Reynir	13	6	2	5	23	22	20
6	Fjolnir	13	5	3	5	32	28	18
7	Vikingur Olafsvik	13	5	3	5	18	23	18
8	Fjardabyggd	13	4	2	7	29	25	14
9	Magni Grenivik	13	4	2	7	23	40	14
10	Throttur Vogar	13	4	1	8	21	26	13
11	Hviti Riddarinn	13	2	7	4	17	23	13
12	KFG Gardabaer	13	4	0	9	18	42	12

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Magni Grenivik	KFG Gardabaer
Fjolnir	5-2 W	4-3 W
Haukar	2-5 L	0-4 L
Throttur Vogar	4-3 W	1-5 L
Kari	1-1 D	1-5 L
UMF Selfoss	4-1 W	2-3 L
Vikingur Olafsvik	1-3 L	0-1 L
Dalvik/Reynir	0-2 L	0-6 L
Kormakur/Hvot	1-7 L	3-2 W
Hviti Riddarinn	1-1 D	1-0 W
Fjardabyggd	0-4 L	1-5 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 5 L	3 W 0 D 7 L

Better against common opponents: Magni Grenivik (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Magni Grenivik

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Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Fjolnir Iceland 2 Deild	1-2	5-2	–	–	W
12/07	Haukar Iceland 2 Deild	2-2	2-5	4	7	L
04/07	Throttur Vogar Iceland 2 Deild	2-2	4-3	3	7	W
27/06	Kari Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
20/06	UMF Selfoss Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	4-1	10	5	W
14/06	Vikingur Olafsvik Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	1-3	3	4	L
10/06	Dalvik/Reynir Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	0-2	10	7	L
05/06	Kormakur/Hvot Iceland 2 Deild	1-4	1-7	7	2	L
31/05	Hviti Riddarinn Iceland 2 Deild	1-1	1-1	10	7	D
23/05	Fjardabyggd Iceland 2 Deild	0-4	0-4	3	5	L

KFG Gardabaer

LWLWWLLLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Kari Iceland 2 Deild	0-2	1-5	9	3	L
12/07	Throttur Vogar Iceland 2 Deild	1-2	1-5	2	4	L
03/07	UMF Selfoss Iceland 2 Deild	1-2	2-3	4	4	L
27/06	Vikingur Olafsvik Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
20/06	Dalvik/Reynir Iceland 2 Deild	0-5	0-6	9	6	L
14/06	Kormakur/Hvot Iceland 2 Deild	2-2	3-2	3	2	W
10/06	Hviti Riddarinn Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
06/06	Fjardabyggd Iceland 2 Deild	1-3	1-5	2	6	L
01/06	Fjolnir Iceland 2 Deild	1-2	4-3	6	7	W
21/05	Haukar Iceland 2 Deild	0-2	0-4	6	10	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Magni Grenivik vs KFG Gardabaer?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Magni Grenivik win (57%). Probabilities: Magni Grenivik 57%, draw 20%, KFG Gardabaer 23%.

How many goals are expected in Magni Grenivik vs KFG Gardabaer?

The model expects 4.4 goals (Magni Grenivik 2.68 · KFG Gardabaer 1.72), with a 51% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Magni Grenivik vs KFG Gardabaer?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.