Football · Iceland 2 Deild · 25/07, 19:00

Prediction: Kormakur/Hvot vs UMF Selfoss

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.71Total

Kormakur/Hvot2.05

UMF Selfoss1.65

1X2

47% 23% 31%

Kormakur/Hvot Draw UMF Selfoss

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Kormakur/Hvot 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WDWDLDWDDW

UMF Selfoss 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWLDWWDW

Head-to-head

Kormakur/Hvot 0–4 UMF Selfoss (4 last)

UMF Selfoss2-1Kormakur/Hvot
Kormakur/Hvot0-2UMF Selfoss
UMF Selfoss1-0Kormakur/Hvot

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kormakur/Hvot 1532 · UMF Selfoss 1565

	Kormakur/Hvot	Draw	UMF Selfoss
Our model	47%	23%	31%
Market	47%	22%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.71 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours UMF Selfoss: 4-0-0.
High corners: 12.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kormakur/Hvot	UMF Selfoss
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1.2	2.5 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.6	1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 6	3.1 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.91

X4.00

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
03:09 +5’	1.91	4.00	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Kormakur/Hvot 0–0–4 UMF Selfoss

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Iceland 2 Deild	UMF Selfoss	2-1 HT 1-0	Kormakur/Hvot
13/07/24 Iceland 2 Deild	Kormakur/Hvot	0-2 HT 0-0	UMF Selfoss
04/05/24 Iceland 2 Deild	UMF Selfoss	1-0 HT 0-0	Kormakur/Hvot
28/04/17 Iceland Cup	UMF Selfoss	8-0 HT 5-0	Kormakur/Hvot

Standings · Iceland 2 Deild

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Haukar	13	9	2	2	35	17	29
2	UMF Selfoss	13	6	5	2	27	24	23
3	Kari	13	5	6	2	36	23	21
4	Kormakur/Hvot	13	5	5	3	29	15	20
5	Dalvik/Reynir	13	6	2	5	23	22	20
6	Fjolnir	13	5	3	5	32	28	18
7	Vikingur Olafsvik	13	5	3	5	18	23	18
8	Fjardabyggd	13	4	2	7	29	25	14
9	Magni Grenivik	13	4	2	7	23	40	14
10	Throttur Vogar	13	4	1	8	21	26	13
11	Hviti Riddarinn	13	2	7	4	17	23	13
12	KFG Gardabaer	13	4	0	9	18	42	12

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kormakur/Hvot	UMF Selfoss
Vikingur Olafsvik	0-0 D	3-1 W
Fjolnir	1-1 D	3-2 W
Hviti Riddarinn	4-0 W	2-2 D
Fjardabyggd	2-2 D	1-0 W
KFG Gardabaer	2-3 L	3-2 W
Haukar	2-2 D	2-2 D
Magni Grenivik	7-1 W	1-4 L
Throttur Vogar	1-1 D	3-1 W
Kari	4-1 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 5 D 1 L	5 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: UMF Selfoss (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Kormakur/Hvot

WDWDLDWDDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Dalvik/Reynir Iceland 2 Deild	2-0	3-1	3	4	W
12/07	Vikingur Olafsvik Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
04/07	Fjolnir Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	1-1	2	6	D
27/06	Hviti Riddarinn Iceland 2 Deild	2-0	4-0	6	4	W
20/06	Fjardabyggd Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	2-2	–	–	D
14/06	KFG Gardabaer Iceland 2 Deild	2-2	2-3	14	2	L
10/06	Haukar Iceland 2 Deild	2-0	2-2	2	6	D
05/06	Magni Grenivik Iceland 2 Deild	4-1	7-1	4	2	W
31/05	Throttur Vogar Iceland 2 Deild	1-1	1-1	4	5	D
23/05	Kari Iceland 2 Deild	1-1	4-1	11	4	W

UMF Selfoss

WWDWLDWWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Fjardabyggd Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
11/07	Hviti Riddarinn Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	2-2	10	3	D
08/07	Arborg Iceland Lower League Cup	4-0	5-0	12	1	W
03/07	KFG Gardabaer Iceland 2 Deild	2-1	3-2	2	4	W
26/06	Haukar Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	2-2	5	5	D
20/06	Magni Grenivik Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	1-4	7	5	L
15/06	Throttur Vogar Iceland 2 Deild	1-0	3-1	6	5	W
10/06	Kari Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	2-2	7	6	D
06/06	Fjolnir Iceland 2 Deild	1-0	3-2	6	4	W
31/05	Vikingur Olafsvik Iceland 2 Deild	2-0	3-1	7	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kormakur/Hvot vs UMF Selfoss?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Kormakur/Hvot win (47%). Probabilities: Kormakur/Hvot 47%, draw 23%, UMF Selfoss 31%.

How many goals are expected in Kormakur/Hvot vs UMF Selfoss?

The model expects 3.71 goals (Kormakur/Hvot 2.05 · UMF Selfoss 1.65), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Kormakur/Hvot vs UMF Selfoss?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.