Football · Iceland 2 Deild · 12/07, 18:00
Prediction: Throttur Vogar vs KFG Gardabaer
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.1Total
Throttur Vogar2.46
KFG Gardabaer1.65
1X2
Throttur Vogar
Draw
KFG Gardabaer
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 62%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Throttur Vogar
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
KFG Gardabaer
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Throttur Vogar
2–1–3
KFG Gardabaer
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Throttur Vogar 1430 · KFG Gardabaer 1465
| Throttur Vogar | Draw | KFG Gardabaer | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 20% | 25% |
| Market | 55% | 21% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.1 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours KFG Gardabaer: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Throttur Vogar | KFG Gardabaer | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 2.2 | 1.5 / 3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.8 | 0.6 / 2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.4 | 1.9 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.4 | 4.9 / 0.7 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Throttur Vogar 2–1–3 KFG Gardabaer
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 Iceland 2 Deild | KFG Gardabaer | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Throttur Vogar |
| 30/07/25 Iceland 2 Deild | KFG Gardabaer | 4-3 HT 2-2 | Throttur Vogar |
| 23/05/25 Iceland 2 Deild | Throttur Vogar | 2-1 HT 0-1 | KFG Gardabaer |
| 13/03/25 Iceland League Cup B | KFG Gardabaer | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Throttur Vogar |
| 31/07/24 Iceland 2 Deild | KFG Gardabaer | 3-3 HT 0-2 | Throttur Vogar |
| 23/05/24 Iceland 2 Deild | Throttur Vogar | 1-0 HT 0-0 | KFG Gardabaer |
Standings · Iceland 2 Deild
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haukar | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 14 | 23 |
| 2 | Dalvik/Reynir | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 15 | 20 |
| 3 | UMF Selfoss | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 22 | 19 |
| 4 | Kari | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 29 | 20 | 17 |
| 5 | Kormakur/Hvot | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 14 | 16 |
| 6 | Fjolnir | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 22 | 15 |
| 7 | Vikingur Olafsvik | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 23 | 14 |
| 8 | Fjardabyggd | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 27 | 22 | 13 |
| 9 | Hviti Riddarinn | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 15 | 19 | 12 |
| 10 | KFG Gardabaer | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 32 | 12 |
| 11 | Magni Grenivik | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 33 | 11 |
| 12 | Throttur Vogar | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 23 | 10 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Throttur Vogar | KFG Gardabaer |
|---|---|---|
| Fjolnir | 3-2 W | 4-3 W |
| Kari | 1-4 L | 1-5 L |
| UMF Selfoss | 1-3 L | 2-3 L |
| Vikingur Olafsvik | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Dalvik/Reynir | 0-1 L | 0-6 L |
| Kormakur/Hvot | 1-1 D | 3-2 W |
| Hviti Riddarinn | 0-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Fjardabyggd | 2-0 W | 1-5 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 5 L | 3 W 0 D 5 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Throttur Vogar
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Magni Grenivik Iceland 2 Deild |
2-2 | 3-4 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 26/06 | Fjolnir Iceland 2 Deild |
2-1 | 3-2 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 19/06 | Kari Iceland 2 Deild |
0-1 | 1-4 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 15/06 | UMF Selfoss Iceland 2 Deild |
0-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 10/06 | Vikingur Olafsvik Iceland 2 Deild |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 06/06 | Dalvik/Reynir Iceland 2 Deild |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 31/05 | Kormakur/Hvot Iceland 2 Deild |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 23/05 | Hviti Riddarinn Iceland 2 Deild |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 14/05 | Fjardabyggd Iceland 2 Deild |
0-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 09/05 | KFG Gardabaer Iceland 2 Deild |
0-1 | 1-3 | 9 | 5 | L |
KFG Gardabaer
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | UMF Selfoss Iceland 2 Deild |
1-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 27/06 | Vikingur Olafsvik Iceland 2 Deild |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 20/06 | Dalvik/Reynir Iceland 2 Deild |
0-5 | 0-6 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 14/06 | Kormakur/Hvot Iceland 2 Deild |
2-2 | 3-2 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 10/06 | Hviti Riddarinn Iceland 2 Deild |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 06/06 | Fjardabyggd Iceland 2 Deild |
1-3 | 1-5 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 01/06 | Fjolnir Iceland 2 Deild |
1-2 | 4-3 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 21/05 | Haukar Iceland 2 Deild |
0-2 | 0-4 | 6 | 10 | L |
| 09/05 | Throttur Vogar Iceland 2 Deild |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 02/05 | Kari Iceland 2 Deild |
0-4 | 1-5 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Throttur Vogar vs KFG Gardabaer?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Throttur Vogar win (55%). Probabilities: Throttur Vogar 55%, draw 21%, KFG Gardabaer 24%.
How many goals are expected in Throttur Vogar vs KFG Gardabaer?
The model expects 4.1 goals (Throttur Vogar 2.46 · KFG Gardabaer 1.65), with a 50% chance of over 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Throttur Vogar vs KFG Gardabaer?
The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.