Football · Iceland 2 Deild · 29/07, 20:00

Prediction: UMF Selfoss vs Dalvik/Reynir

Team pages: UMF Selfoss · Dalvik/Reynir

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.88Total

UMF Selfoss2.22

Dalvik/Reynir1.66

1X2

50% 22% 28%

UMF Selfoss Draw Dalvik/Reynir

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

UMF Selfoss 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDWLDWWDWW

Dalvik/Reynir 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWWDWLLL

Head-to-head

UMF Selfoss 3–2–0 Dalvik/Reynir (5 last)

Dalvik/Reynir2-2UMF Selfoss
UMF Selfoss3-1Dalvik/Reynir
UMF Selfoss4-0Dalvik/Reynir
Dalvik/Reynir1-1UMF Selfoss
UMF Selfoss4-0Dalvik/Reynir

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UMF Selfoss 1579 · Dalvik/Reynir 1515

	UMF Selfoss	Draw	Dalvik/Reynir
Our model	50%	22%	28%
Market	50%	22%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.88 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours UMF Selfoss (rating 1579 vs 1515).
H2H favours UMF Selfoss: 3-2-0.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UMF Selfoss	Dalvik/Reynir
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 1.7	2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 6.4	2 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	5.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.80

X4.00

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
11:05 +1’	1.80	4.00	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · UMF Selfoss 3–2–0 Dalvik/Reynir

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Iceland 2 Deild	Dalvik/Reynir	2-2 HT 1-2	UMF Selfoss
15/08/20 Iceland 2 Deild	UMF Selfoss	3-1	Dalvik/Reynir
16/08/19 Iceland 2 Deild	UMF Selfoss	4-0 HT 2-0	Dalvik/Reynir
30/05/19 Iceland 2 Deild	Dalvik/Reynir	1-1	UMF Selfoss
25/04/19 Iceland League Cup	UMF Selfoss	4-0 HT 2-0	Dalvik/Reynir

Standings · Iceland 2 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Haukar	14	9	2	3	36	19	29
2	UMF Selfoss	14	7	5	2	32	26	26
3	Kari	14	6	6	2	39	24	24
4	Fjolnir	14	6	3	5	34	29	21
5	Vikingur Olafsvik	14	6	3	5	19	23	21
6	Kormakur/Hvot	14	5	5	4	31	20	20
7	Dalvik/Reynir	14	6	2	6	23	23	20
8	Fjardabyggd	14	5	2	7	33	27	17
9	Magni Grenivik	14	4	3	7	24	41	15
10	Throttur Vogar	14	4	1	9	23	30	13
11	Hviti Riddarinn	14	2	7	5	18	26	13
12	KFG Gardabaer	14	4	1	9	19	43	13

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UMF Selfoss	Dalvik/Reynir
Kormakur/Hvot	5-2 W	1-3 L
Fjardabyggd	1-0 W	1-0 W
Hviti Riddarinn	2-2 D	3-3 D
KFG Gardabaer	3-2 W	6-0 W
Haukar	2-2 D	3-0 W
Magni Grenivik	1-4 L	2-0 W
Throttur Vogar	3-1 W	1-0 W
Fjolnir	3-2 W	1-4 L
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 1 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

UMF Selfoss

WDWLDWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Kormakur/Hvot Iceland 2 Deild	1-2	5-2	–	–	W
18/07	Fjardabyggd Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
11/07	Hviti Riddarinn Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	2-2	10	3	D
08/07	Arborg Iceland Lower League Cup	4-0	5-0	12	1	W
03/07	KFG Gardabaer Iceland 2 Deild	2-1	3-2	2	4	W
26/06	Haukar Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	2-2	5	5	D
20/06	Magni Grenivik Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	1-4	7	5	L
15/06	Throttur Vogar Iceland 2 Deild	1-0	3-1	6	5	W
10/06	Kari Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	2-2	7	6	D
06/06	Fjolnir Iceland 2 Deild	1-0	3-2	6	4	W

Dalvik/Reynir

WWWWWDWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Vikingur Olafsvik Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
18/07	Kormakur/Hvot Iceland 2 Deild	0-2	1-3	5	4	L
12/07	Fjolnir Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	1-4	7	4	L
07/07	Hamar Hveragerdi Iceland Lower League Cup	1-0	2-1	9	4	W
03/07	Hviti Riddarinn Iceland 2 Deild	2-1	3-3	8	4	D
27/06	Fjardabyggd Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	1-0	3	9	W
20/06	KFG Gardabaer Iceland 2 Deild	5-0	6-0	0	6	W
14/06	Haukar Iceland 2 Deild	1-0	3-0	1	6	W
10/06	Magni Grenivik Iceland 2 Deild	1-0	2-0	5	7	W
06/06	Throttur Vogar Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	1-0	5	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UMF Selfoss vs Dalvik/Reynir?

According to our model, the most likely result is a UMF Selfoss win (50%). Probabilities: UMF Selfoss 50%, draw 22%, Dalvik/Reynir 28%.

How many goals are expected in UMF Selfoss vs Dalvik/Reynir?

The model expects 3.88 goals (UMF Selfoss 2.22 · Dalvik/Reynir 1.66), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in UMF Selfoss vs Dalvik/Reynir?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.