Football · Iceland 2 Deild · 29/07, 21:15

Prediction: Haukar vs KFG Gardabaer

Team pages: Haukar · KFG Gardabaer

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.35Total

Haukar3.17

KFG Gardabaer1.17

1X2

79% 13% 9%

Haukar Draw KFG Gardabaer

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

3-1

Recent form · 10 last

Haukar 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWDLWDWWWL

KFG Gardabaer 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLWWLLLLLD

Head-to-head

Haukar 4–2 KFG Gardabaer (6 last)

KFG Gardabaer0-4Haukar
Haukar1-2KFG Gardabaer
KFG Gardabaer1-4Haukar
Haukar0-4KFG Gardabaer
KFG Gardabaer0-1Haukar
KFG Gardabaer1-3Haukar

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Haukar 1562 · KFG Gardabaer 1429

	Haukar	Draw	KFG Gardabaer
Our model	76%	14%	10%
Market	81%	12%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 4.35 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 82%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Haukar (rating 1562 vs 1429).
H2H favours Haukar: 4-0-2.
High corners: 13 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Haukar	KFG Gardabaer
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.5	1.4 / 3.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.9	0.6 / 1.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	0/40/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.2 / 8.6	2.2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.2	4.2 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.14

X8.00

212.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)1.88

2 (+2.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 41.85

Under 41.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 4.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.14 → 1.14	Bet365 1.14
X	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
2	12.00 → 12.00	Bet365 12.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4%

Time*	1	X	2
10:54 +12’	1.14	8.00	12.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Haukar 4–0–2 KFG Gardabaer

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/05/26 Iceland 2 Deild	KFG Gardabaer	0-4 HT 0-2	Haukar
25/07/25 Iceland 2 Deild	Haukar	1-2 HT 0-0	KFG Gardabaer
16/05/25 Iceland 2 Deild	KFG Gardabaer	1-4 HT 0-2	Haukar
21/07/24 Iceland 2 Deild	Haukar	0-4 HT 0-2	KFG Gardabaer
11/05/24 Iceland 2 Deild	KFG Gardabaer	0-1 HT 0-1	Haukar
20/08/23 Iceland 2 Deild	KFG Gardabaer	1-3 HT 0-1	Haukar

Standings · Iceland 2 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Haukar	14	9	2	3	36	19	29
2	UMF Selfoss	14	7	5	2	32	26	26
3	Kari	14	6	6	2	39	24	24
4	Fjolnir	14	6	3	5	34	29	21
5	Vikingur Olafsvik	14	6	3	5	19	23	21
6	Kormakur/Hvot	14	5	5	4	31	20	20
7	Dalvik/Reynir	14	6	2	6	23	23	20
8	Fjardabyggd	14	5	2	7	33	27	17
9	Magni Grenivik	14	4	3	7	24	41	15
10	Throttur Vogar	14	4	1	9	23	30	13
11	Hviti Riddarinn	14	2	7	5	18	26	13
12	KFG Gardabaer	14	4	1	9	19	43	13

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Haukar	KFG Gardabaer
Fjolnir	1-2 L	4-3 W
Throttur Vogar	2-1 W	1-5 L
Magni Grenivik	5-2 W	1-1 D
Kari	4-1 W	1-5 L
UMF Selfoss	2-2 D	2-3 L
Vikingur Olafsvik	1-0 W	0-1 L
Dalvik/Reynir	0-3 L	0-6 L
Kormakur/Hvot	2-2 D	3-2 W
Hviti Riddarinn	2-0 W	1-0 W
Fjardabyggd	3-2 W	1-5 L
Record vs common	6 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Haukar (8 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Haukar

WWDLWDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	Fjolnir Iceland 2 Deild	0-2	1-2	9	6	L
17/07	Throttur Vogar Iceland 2 Deild	1-1	2-1	13	2	W
12/07	Magni Grenivik Iceland 2 Deild	2-2	5-2	4	7	W
01/07	Kari Iceland 2 Deild	2-0	4-1	10	4	W
26/06	UMF Selfoss Iceland 2 Deild	1-0	2-2	12	5	D
20/06	Vikingur Olafsvik Iceland 2 Deild	1-0	1-0	8	9	W
14/06	Dalvik/Reynir Iceland 2 Deild	0-1	0-3	10	6	L
10/06	Kormakur/Hvot Iceland 2 Deild	0-2	2-2	11	6	D
05/06	Hviti Riddarinn Iceland 2 Deild	2-0	2-0	2	5	W
31/05	Fjardabyggd Iceland 2 Deild	1-1	3-2	7	5	W

KFG Gardabaer

WLWWLLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Magni Grenivik Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
17/07	Kari Iceland 2 Deild	0-2	1-5	9	3	L
12/07	Throttur Vogar Iceland 2 Deild	1-2	1-5	2	4	L
03/07	UMF Selfoss Iceland 2 Deild	1-2	2-3	4	4	L
27/06	Vikingur Olafsvik Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
20/06	Dalvik/Reynir Iceland 2 Deild	0-5	0-6	9	6	L
14/06	Kormakur/Hvot Iceland 2 Deild	2-2	3-2	3	2	W
10/06	Hviti Riddarinn Iceland 2 Deild	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
06/06	Fjardabyggd Iceland 2 Deild	1-3	1-5	2	6	L
01/06	Fjolnir Iceland 2 Deild	1-2	4-3	6	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Haukar vs KFG Gardabaer?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Haukar win (79%). Probabilities: Haukar 79%, draw 13%, KFG Gardabaer 9%.

How many goals are expected in Haukar vs KFG Gardabaer?

The model expects 4.35 goals (Haukar 3.17 · KFG Gardabaer 1.17), with a 53% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Haukar vs KFG Gardabaer?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.