Football · Finland Kolmonen · 19/09, 14:00

Prediction: MPS/Atletico Malmi vs Atlantis FC/PM

Team pages: MPS/Atletico Malmi · Atlantis FC/PM

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.71Total

MPS/Atletico Malmi2.78

Atlantis FC/PM1.94

1X2

55% 18% 26%

MPS/Atletico Malmi Draw Atlantis FC/PM

Markets

Over 4.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 64%

Most likely score

2-1 7%

Recent form · 10 last

MPS/Atletico Malmi 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Atlantis FC/PM 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

MPS/Atletico Malmi 1–0 Atlantis FC/PM (1 last)

Atlantis FC/PM1-6MPS/Atletico Malmi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · MPS/Atletico Malmi 1536 · Atlantis FC/PM 1512

	MPS/Atletico Malmi	Draw	Atlantis FC/PM
Our model	55%	19%	26%
Market	56%	18%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 4.71 goals · Bet365 line 4.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 86%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	MPS/Atletico Malmi	Atlantis FC/PM
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.7	3.2 / 3.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.8	1.9 / 1.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	44/11/44%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.2	2.7 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.61

X5.00

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 4.751.85

Under 4.751.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 4.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
01:36 +44’	1.61	5.00	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · MPS/Atletico Malmi 1–0–0 Atlantis FC/PM

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/06/26 Finland Kolmonen	Atlantis FC/PM	1-6	MPS/Atletico Malmi

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MPS/Atletico Malmi	19	12	2	5	39	32	38
2	ToTe	18	10	4	4	41	23	34
3	Tips Vantaa	19	11	1	7	45	41	34
4	PPJ/Lauttasaari	19	9	5	5	54	28	32
5	LPS Helsinki	17	10	2	5	50	33	32
6	VJS Vantaa II	19	8	3	8	59	35	27
7	Atlantis FC/PM	19	8	3	8	50	65	27
8	Valtti	18	8	2	8	33	36	26
9	HPS II	20	6	5	9	47	51	23
10	Töölön Taisto	20	4	9	7	40	46	21
11	FC Kontu	19	3	6	10	31	48	15
12	PPS	19	2	2	15	18	69	8

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	MPS/Atletico Malmi	Atlantis FC/PM
ToTe	2-1 W	2-2 D
PPJ/Lauttasaari	2-0 W	2-6 L
Tips Vantaa	1-3 L	4-2 W
LPS Helsinki	0-5 L	1-5 L
VJS Vantaa II	2-1 W	1-10 L
FC Kontu	1-1 D	3-2 W
Toolon Taisto	2-2 D	6-3 W
PPS	2-1 W	6-1 W
Valtti	1-2 L	3-1 W
HPS II	2-1 W	4-3 W
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 3 L	6 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Atlantis FC/PM (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

MPS/Atletico Malmi

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	ToTe Finland Kolmonen	2-1	2-1	5	6	W
03/09	PPJ/Lauttasaari Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-0	4	3	W
29/08	Tips Vantaa Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-3	4	7	L
22/08	LPS Helsinki Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-5	3	6	L
13/08	VJS Vantaa II Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
07/08	FC Kontu Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
01/08	Toolon Taisto Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-2	10	3	D
24/07	PPS Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-1	9	3	W
26/06	Valtti Finland Kolmonen	1-2	1-2	7	11	L
16/06	HPS II Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-1	1	6	W

Atlantis FC/PM

WLWLWWDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	LPS Helsinki Finland Kolmonen	0-4	1-5	12	4	L
04/09	PPS Finland Kolmonen	4-0	6-1	3	2	W
27/08	Töölön Taisto Finland Kolmonen	4-0	6-3	7	2	W
20/08	ToTe Finland Kolmonen	0-2	2-2	6	6	D
14/08	Valtti Finland Kolmonen	–	3-1	–	–	W
06/08	HPS II Finland Kolmonen	3-1	4-3	2	2	W
01/08	VJS Vantaa II Finland Kolmonen	0-4	1-10	1	2	L
23/07	FC Kontu Finland Kolmonen	1-1	3-2	1	4	W
30/06	PPJ/Lauttasaari Finland Kolmonen	1-3	2-6	3	0	L
25/06	Tips Vantaa Finland Kolmonen	4-0	4-2	9	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in MPS/Atletico Malmi vs Atlantis FC/PM?

According to our model, the most likely result is a MPS/Atletico Malmi win (55%). Probabilities: MPS/Atletico Malmi 55%, draw 18%, Atlantis FC/PM 26%.

How many goals are expected in MPS/Atletico Malmi vs Atlantis FC/PM?

The model expects 4.71 goals (MPS/Atletico Malmi 2.78 · Atlantis FC/PM 1.94), with a 51% chance of under 4.75 goals.

Will both teams score in MPS/Atletico Malmi vs Atlantis FC/PM?

The model gives a 64% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.