Football · Finland Kolmonen · 01/08, 12:00

Prediction: ToTe vs PPS

Team pages: ToTe · PPS

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.98Total

ToTe3.49

PPS1.49

1X2

84% 9% 7%

ToTe Draw PPS

Markets

Under 5.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

3-1

Recent form · 10 last

ToTe 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWDWLWWW

PPS 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLWLLLLL

Head-to-head

ToTe 1–0 PPS (1 last)

PPS0-2ToTe

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ToTe 1584 · PPS 1379

	ToTe	Draw	PPS
Our model	74%	14%	12%
Market	92%	5%	3%

Estimated total (ours) 4.98 goals · Bet365 line 5.5 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 83%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ToTe (rating 1584 vs 1379).
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ToTe	PPS
Goals for / against (FT)	2.8 / 1.3	1 / 4.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.5	0.2 / 1.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	0/33/67%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.6	2.3 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.02

X19.00

229.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-4.5)1.85

2 (+4.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 5.51.93

Under 5.51.88

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 4.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.02 → 1.02	Bet365 1.02
X	19.00 → 19.00	Bet365 19.00
2	29.00 → 29.00	Bet365 29.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.8%

Time*	1	X	2
04:06 +11’	1.02	19.00	29.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · ToTe 1–0–0 PPS

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/04/26 Finland Kolmonen	PPS	0-2 HT 0-0	ToTe

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MPS/Atletico Malmi	12	9	0	3	29	19	27
2	PPJ/Lauttasaari	13	7	4	2	46	20	25
3	ToTe	11	8	1	2	29	11	25
4	Valtti	12	7	0	5	25	24	21
5	LPS Helsinki	11	6	1	4	30	26	19
6	Tips Vantaa	12	5	1	6	27	31	16
7	HPS II	12	4	3	5	30	31	15
8	VJS Vantaa II	12	4	2	6	33	24	14
9	Atlantis FC/PM	12	4	2	6	27	40	14
10	Töölön Taisto	11	2	6	3	21	23	12
11	FC Kontu	12	2	4	6	21	31	10
12	PPS	12	1	0	11	11	49	3

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ToTe	PPS
Valtti	2-0 W	0-3 L
Töölön Taisto	4-1 W	0-5 L
HPS II	3-2 W	2-3 L
LPS Helsinki	1-3 L	0-3 L
MPS/Atletico Malmi	3-0 W	1-2 L
VJS Vantaa II	1-1 D	0-11 L
FC Kontu	7-2 W	3-4 L
Atlantis FC/PM	2-3 L	3-2 W
Tips Vantaa	2-0 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 8 L

Better against common opponents: ToTe (8 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ToTe

WLWWDWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	Valtti Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-0	3	3	W
03/07	Töölön Taisto Finland Kolmonen	2-1	4-1	0	5	W
25/06	HPS II Finland Kolmonen	3-1	3-2	5	5	W
13/06	LPS Helsinki Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-3	6	3	L
05/06	MPS/Atletico Malmi Finland Kolmonen	0-0	3-0	8	2	W
30/05	VJS Vantaa II Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-1	8	2	D
24/05	Valtti Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-1	3	6	W
21/05	FC Kontu Finland Kolmonen	4-1	7-2	5	2	W
15/05	Atlantis FC/PM Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-3	3	4	L
08/05	Tips Vantaa Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-0	–	–	W

PPS

LLLLWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	MPS/Atletico Malmi Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-2	9	3	L
02/07	FC Kontu Finland Kolmonen	1-1	3-4	2	4	L
26/06	PPJ/Lauttasaari Finland Kolmonen	0-3	0-9	8	2	L
12/06	Valtti Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-3	5	1	L
07/06	Töölön Taisto Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-5	0	4	L
27/05	Atlantis FC/PM Finland Kolmonen	1-1	3-2	7	2	W
20/05	VJS Vantaa II Finland Kolmonen	0-4	0-11	5	1	L
15/05	Tips Vantaa Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-3	4	1	L
08/05	HPS II Finland Kolmonen	–	2-3	–	–	L
03/05	LPS Helsinki Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-3	7	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ToTe vs PPS?

According to our model, the most likely result is a ToTe win (84%). Probabilities: ToTe 84%, draw 9%, PPS 7%.

How many goals are expected in ToTe vs PPS?

The model expects 4.98 goals (ToTe 3.49 · PPS 1.49), with a 56% chance of under 5.5 goals.

Will both teams score in ToTe vs PPS?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.