Football · Finland Kolmonen · 01/08, 14:00

Prediction: MPS/Atletico Malmi vs Töölön Taisto

Team pages: MPS/Atletico Malmi · Töölön Taisto

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.23Total

MPS/Atletico Malmi2.76

Töölön Taisto1.47

1X2

64% 18% 18%

MPS/Atletico Malmi Draw Töölön Taisto

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

MPS/Atletico Malmi 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWLLWWLW

Töölön Taisto 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

LDDDDWDWLD

Head-to-head

MPS/Atletico Malmi 4–2–0 Töölön Taisto (6 last)

Töölön Taisto0-4MPS/Atletico Malmi
MPS/Atletico Malmi4-4Töölön Taisto
Töölön Taisto2-4MPS/Atletico Malmi
Töölön Taisto1-1MPS/Atletico Malmi
Töölön Taisto0-2MPS/Atletico Malmi
MPS/Atletico Malmi3-1Töölön Taisto

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · MPS/Atletico Malmi 1548 · Töölön Taisto 1488

	MPS/Atletico Malmi	Draw	Töölön Taisto
Our model	64%	18%	18%
Market	64%	18%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 4.23 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours MPS/Atletico Malmi (rating 1548 vs 1488).
H2H favours MPS/Atletico Malmi: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	MPS/Atletico Malmi	Töölön Taisto
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.8	2.1 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.6	1.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/13/38%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 4.5	2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0	4.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.40

X5.00

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.98

2 (+1.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 41.85

Under 41.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 4.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
04:16 +3’	1.40	5.00	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · MPS/Atletico Malmi 4–2–0 Töölön Taisto

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/04/26 Finland Kolmonen	Töölön Taisto	0-4 HT 0-1	MPS/Atletico Malmi
27/09/25 Finland Kolmonen	MPS/Atletico Malmi	4-4	Töölön Taisto
02/06/25 Finland Kolmonen	Töölön Taisto	2-4 HT 0-2	MPS/Atletico Malmi
09/03/25 Finland Cup	Töölön Taisto	1-1 HT 1-0	MPS/Atletico Malmi
21/04/24 Finland Kolmonen	Töölön Taisto	0-2 HT 0-0	MPS/Atletico Malmi
03/08/18 Finland Kolmonen	MPS/Atletico Malmi	3-1 HT 1-0	Töölön Taisto

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MPS/Atletico Malmi	12	9	0	3	29	19	27
2	PPJ/Lauttasaari	13	7	4	2	46	20	25
3	ToTe	11	8	1	2	29	11	25
4	Valtti	12	7	0	5	25	24	21
5	LPS Helsinki	11	6	1	4	30	26	19
6	Tips Vantaa	12	5	1	6	27	31	16
7	HPS II	12	4	3	5	30	31	15
8	VJS Vantaa II	12	4	2	6	33	24	14
9	Atlantis FC/PM	12	4	2	6	27	40	14
10	Töölön Taisto	11	2	6	3	21	23	12
11	FC Kontu	12	2	4	6	21	31	10
12	PPS	12	1	0	11	11	49	3

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	MPS/Atletico Malmi	Töölön Taisto
PPS	2-1 W	5-0 W
Valtti	1-2 L	0-2 L
HPS II	2-1 W	2-2 D
Atlantis FC/PM	6-1 W	2-2 D
ToTe	0-3 L	1-4 L
PPJ/Lauttasaari	0-4 L	2-2 D
Tips Vantaa	3-2 W	1-1 D
LPS Helsinki	3-1 W	2-2 D
VJS Vantaa II	2-1 W	3-1 W
FC Kontu	4-2 W	3-3 D
Record vs common	7 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 6 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: MPS/Atletico Malmi (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

MPS/Atletico Malmi

WWWWLLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	PPS Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-1	9	3	W
26/06	Valtti Finland Kolmonen	1-2	1-2	7	11	L
16/06	HPS II Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-1	1	6	W
12/06	Atlantis FC/PM Finland Kolmonen	–	6-1	–	–	W
05/06	ToTe Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-3	9	2	L
29/05	PPJ/Lauttasaari Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-4	0	5	L
22/05	Tips Vantaa Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-2	6	2	W
16/05	LPS Helsinki Finland Kolmonen	–	3-1	–	–	W
10/05	VJS Vantaa II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-1	1	7	W
29/04	FC Kontu Finland Kolmonen	3-0	4-2	3	2	W

Töölön Taisto

LDDDDWDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	Tips Vantaa Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
03/07	ToTe Finland Kolmonen	1-2	1-4	5	5	L
24/06	VJS Vantaa II Finland Kolmonen	3-0	3-1	9	9	W
11/06	HPS II Finland Kolmonen	0-2	2-2	3	5	D
07/06	PPS Finland Kolmonen	2-0	5-0	7	4	W
28/05	FC Kontu Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-3	2	4	D
21/05	Atlantis FC/PM Finland Kolmonen	2-1	2-2	4	4	D
15/05	PPJ/Lauttasaari Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-2	2	5	D
07/05	LPS Helsinki Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-2	4	4	D
02/05	Valtti Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	5	9	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in MPS/Atletico Malmi vs Töölön Taisto?

According to our model, the most likely result is a MPS/Atletico Malmi win (64%). Probabilities: MPS/Atletico Malmi 64%, draw 18%, Töölön Taisto 18%.

How many goals are expected in MPS/Atletico Malmi vs Töölön Taisto?

The model expects 4.23 goals (MPS/Atletico Malmi 2.76 · Töölön Taisto 1.47), with a 51% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in MPS/Atletico Malmi vs Töölön Taisto?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.