Football · Finland Kolmonen · 13/08, 18:00

Prediction: MPS/Atletico Malmi vs VJS Vantaa II

Team pages: MPS/Atletico Malmi · VJS Vantaa II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.88Total

MPS/Atletico Malmi2.03

VJS Vantaa II1.85

1X2

42% 22% 36%

MPS/Atletico Malmi Draw VJS Vantaa II

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

MPS/Atletico Malmi 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLLWWLWDD

VJS Vantaa II 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWDDLLLWWW

Head-to-head

MPS/Atletico Malmi 2–0 VJS Vantaa II (2 last)

VJS Vantaa II1-2MPS/Atletico Malmi
VJS Vantaa II0-2MPS/Atletico Malmi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · MPS/Atletico Malmi 1527 · VJS Vantaa II 1527

	MPS/Atletico Malmi	Draw	VJS Vantaa II
Our model	42%	23%	35%
Market	43%	21%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.88 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours MPS/Atletico Malmi: 2-0-0.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	MPS/Atletico Malmi	VJS Vantaa II
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.8	3.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	1.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	38/25/38%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 5.9	3.1 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X4.20

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.88

Under 3.751.93

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 4.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:16 +4’	2.10	4.20	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · MPS/Atletico Malmi 2–0–0 VJS Vantaa II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	VJS Vantaa II	1-2 HT 1-0	MPS/Atletico Malmi
14/04/22 Finland Cup	VJS Vantaa II	0-2 HT 0-1	MPS/Atletico Malmi

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	ToTe	13	9	2	2	33	13	29
2	MPS/Atletico Malmi	14	9	2	3	32	22	29
3	PPJ/Lauttasaari	14	7	5	2	47	21	26
4	Valtti	13	7	1	5	26	25	22
5	VJS Vantaa II	14	6	2	6	47	26	20
6	LPS Helsinki	12	6	1	5	31	28	19
7	Atlantis FC/PM	14	5	2	7	32	53	17
8	Tips Vantaa	13	5	1	7	28	35	16
9	HPS II	14	4	3	7	35	38	15
10	Toolon Taisto	13	2	8	3	24	26	14
11	FC Kontu	14	3	5	6	25	34	14
12	PPS	14	2	0	12	14	53	6

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	MPS/Atletico Malmi	VJS Vantaa II
FC Kontu	1-1 D	0-1 L
Toolon Taisto	2-2 D	1-3 L
PPS	2-1 W	11-0 W
Valtti	1-2 L	3-4 L
HPS II	2-1 W	2-1 W
Atlantis FC/PM	6-1 W	10-1 W
ToTe	0-3 L	1-1 D
PPJ/Lauttasaari	0-4 L	2-2 D
Tips Vantaa	3-2 W	4-1 W
LPS Helsinki	3-1 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 3 L	5 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: VJS Vantaa II (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

MPS/Atletico Malmi

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	FC Kontu Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
01/08	Toolon Taisto Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-2	10	3	D
24/07	PPS Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-1	9	3	W
26/06	Valtti Finland Kolmonen	1-2	1-2	7	11	L
16/06	HPS II Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-1	1	6	W
12/06	Atlantis FC/PM Finland Kolmonen	–	6-1	–	–	W
05/06	ToTe Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-3	9	2	L
29/05	PPJ/Lauttasaari Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-4	0	5	L
22/05	Tips Vantaa Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-2	6	2	W
16/05	LPS Helsinki Finland Kolmonen	–	3-1	–	–	W

VJS Vantaa II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Tips Vantaa Finland Kolmonen	2-0	4-1	1	4	W
01/08	Atlantis FC/PM Finland Kolmonen	4-0	10-1	7	2	W
24/07	LPS Helsinki Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-0	4	9	W
05/07	Valtti Finland Kolmonen	2-1	3-4	14	4	L
24/06	Toolon Taisto Finland Kolmonen	0-3	1-3	6	9	L
12/06	FC Kontu Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-1	7	5	L
07/06	PPJ/Lauttasaari Finland Kolmonen	1-2	2-2	6	4	D
30/05	ToTe Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-1	2	2	D
20/05	PPS Finland Kolmonen	4-0	11-0	6	1	W
14/05	HPS II Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-1	6	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in MPS/Atletico Malmi vs VJS Vantaa II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a MPS/Atletico Malmi win (42%). Probabilities: MPS/Atletico Malmi 42%, draw 22%, VJS Vantaa II 36%.

How many goals are expected in MPS/Atletico Malmi vs VJS Vantaa II?

The model expects 3.88 goals (MPS/Atletico Malmi 2.03 · VJS Vantaa II 1.85), with a 50% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in MPS/Atletico Malmi vs VJS Vantaa II?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.