Football · Finland Kolmonen · 03/09, 19:00

Prediction: PPJ/Lauttasaari vs MPS/Atletico Malmi

Team pages: PPJ/Lauttasaari · MPS/Atletico Malmi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.05Total

PPJ/Lauttasaari2.39

MPS/Atletico Malmi1.66

1X2

54% 20% 26%

PPJ/Lauttasaari Draw MPS/Atletico Malmi

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

PPJ/Lauttasaari 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLWWDLDWLL

MPS/Atletico Malmi 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLWDDWLL

Head-to-head

PPJ/Lauttasaari 2–1–2 MPS/Atletico Malmi (5 last)

MPS/Atletico Malmi0-4PPJ/Lauttasaari
PPJ/Lauttasaari2-0MPS/Atletico Malmi
MPS/Atletico Malmi2-2PPJ/Lauttasaari
MPS/Atletico Malmi3-1PPJ/Lauttasaari
PPJ/Lauttasaari1-3MPS/Atletico Malmi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · PPJ/Lauttasaari 1510 · MPS/Atletico Malmi 1476

	PPJ/Lauttasaari	Draw	MPS/Atletico Malmi
Our model	53%	21%	26%
Market	54%	20%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 4.05 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	PPJ/Lauttasaari	MPS/Atletico Malmi
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1.5	1.7 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 1.2	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/0/67%	22/33/44%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6.8	3.3 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	5.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.67

X4.50

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.88

2 (+0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.85

Under 3.751.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
05:10 +7’	1.67	4.50	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · PPJ/Lauttasaari 2–1–2 MPS/Atletico Malmi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	MPS/Atletico Malmi	0-4 HT 0-2	PPJ/Lauttasaari
14/08/25 Finland Kolmonen	PPJ/Lauttasaari	2-0 HT 0-0	MPS/Atletico Malmi
10/05/25 Finland Kolmonen	MPS/Atletico Malmi	2-2 HT 2-2	PPJ/Lauttasaari
07/09/24 Finland Kolmonen	MPS/Atletico Malmi	3-1 HT 1-0	PPJ/Lauttasaari
30/05/24 Finland Kolmonen	PPJ/Lauttasaari	1-3 HT 1-1	MPS/Atletico Malmi

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	ToTe	16	10	3	3	37	18	33
2	MPS/Atletico Malmi	17	10	2	5	35	31	32
3	PPJ/Lauttasaari	17	8	5	4	51	25	29
4	Tips Vantaa	17	9	1	7	41	39	28
5	VJS Vantaa II	17	8	2	7	55	29	26
6	LPS Helsinki	15	8	2	5	42	31	26
7	Valtti	16	8	2	6	30	30	26
8	Atlantis FC/PM	17	7	3	7	43	59	24
9	HPS II	17	4	5	8	40	45	17
10	Töölön Taisto	17	3	8	6	33	41	17
11	FC Kontu	17	3	6	8	29	42	15
12	PPS	17	2	1	14	16	62	7

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	PPJ/Lauttasaari	MPS/Atletico Malmi
Valtti	0-1 L	1-2 L
Töölön Taisto	0-2 L	2-2 D
FC Kontu	4-1 W	1-1 D
ToTe	1-1 D	0-3 L
LPS Helsinki	0-1 L	0-5 L
HPS II	3-3 D	2-1 W
Atlantis FC/PM	6-2 W	6-1 W
PPS	9-0 W	2-1 W
Tips Vantaa	1-2 L	1-3 L
VJS Vantaa II	2-2 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 4 L	4 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: PPJ/Lauttasaari (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

PPJ/Lauttasaari

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Valtti Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
20/08	Töölön Taisto Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-2	8	4	L
14/08	FC Kontu Finland Kolmonen	0-1	4-1	8	4	W
08/08	ToTe Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-1	7	4	D
30/07	LPS Helsinki Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
26/07	HPS II Finland Kolmonen	2-3	3-3	9	3	D
30/06	Atlantis FC/PM Finland Kolmonen	3-1	6-2	7	0	W
26/06	PPS Finland Kolmonen	3-0	9-0	5	2	W
12/06	Tips Vantaa Finland Kolmonen	–	1-2	–	–	L
07/06	VJS Vantaa II Finland Kolmonen	2-1	2-2	7	4	D

MPS/Atletico Malmi

LWWLWDDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Tips Vantaa Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-3	4	7	L
22/08	LPS Helsinki Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-5	3	6	L
13/08	VJS Vantaa II Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
07/08	FC Kontu Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
01/08	Toolon Taisto Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-2	10	3	D
24/07	PPS Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-1	9	3	W
26/06	Valtti Finland Kolmonen	1-2	1-2	7	11	L
16/06	HPS II Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-1	1	6	W
12/06	Atlantis FC/PM Finland Kolmonen	–	6-1	–	–	W
05/06	ToTe Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-3	9	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in PPJ/Lauttasaari vs MPS/Atletico Malmi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a PPJ/Lauttasaari win (54%). Probabilities: PPJ/Lauttasaari 54%, draw 20%, MPS/Atletico Malmi 26%.

How many goals are expected in PPJ/Lauttasaari vs MPS/Atletico Malmi?

The model expects 4.05 goals (PPJ/Lauttasaari 2.39 · MPS/Atletico Malmi 1.66), with a 52% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in PPJ/Lauttasaari vs MPS/Atletico Malmi?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.