Football · Finland Kolmonen · 31/07, 18:00

Prediction: FC Kontu vs HPS II

Team pages: FC Kontu · HPS II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.44Total

FC Kontu2.08

HPS II2.36

1X2

35% 21% 45%

FC Kontu Draw HPS II

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 64%

Most likely score

2-2

Recent form · 10 last

FC Kontu 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDLLDLWLWL

HPS II 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWWLDLLD

Head-to-head

FC Kontu 0–1–0 HPS II (1 last)

HPS II2-2FC Kontu

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Kontu 1453 · HPS II 1495

	FC Kontu	Draw	HPS II
Our model	35%	21%	45%
Market	34%	21%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 4.44 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 83%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HPS II (rating 1453 vs 1495).
High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Kontu	HPS II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2.7	2.6 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.6	1.5 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	50/13/38%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6	2.5 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.60

X4.33

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.85

Under 4.251.95

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 4.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
05:48 +18’	2.60	4.33	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Kontu 0–1–0 HPS II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/04/26 Finland Kolmonen	HPS II	2-2 HT 0-1	FC Kontu

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MPS/Atletico Malmi	12	9	0	3	29	19	27
2	PPJ/Lauttasaari	12	7	4	1	46	19	25
3	ToTe	11	8	1	2	29	11	25
4	Valtti	12	7	0	5	25	24	21
5	LPS Helsinki	10	5	1	4	29	26	16
6	Tips Vantaa	12	5	1	6	27	31	16
7	HPS II	12	4	3	5	30	31	15
8	VJS Vantaa II	12	4	2	6	33	24	14
9	Atlantis FC/PM	12	4	2	6	27	40	14
10	Töölön Taisto	11	2	6	3	21	23	12
11	FC Kontu	12	2	4	6	21	31	10
12	PPS	12	1	0	11	11	49	3

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Kontu	HPS II
Atlantis FC/PM	2-3 L	4-2 W
PPS	4-3 W	3-2 W
LPS Helsinki	3-4 L	4-3 W
VJS Vantaa II	1-0 W	1-2 L
Tips Vantaa	0-2 L	5-1 W
Töölön Taisto	3-3 D	2-2 D
ToTe	2-7 L	2-3 L
Valtti	0-1 L	1-3 L
PPJ/Lauttasaari	0-0 D	3-3 D
MPS/Atletico Malmi	2-4 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 6 L	4 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: HPS II (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Kontu

LDLLDLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	Atlantis FC/PM Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-3	1	4	L
02/07	PPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	4-3	14	4	W
26/06	LPS Helsinki Finland Kolmonen	0-3	3-4	5	1	L
12/06	VJS Vantaa II Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
05/06	Tips Vantaa Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-2	8	7	L
28/05	Töölön Taisto Finland Kolmonen	0-2	3-3	6	4	D
21/05	ToTe Finland Kolmonen	1-4	2-7	2	2	L
15/05	Valtti Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
07/05	PPJ/Lauttasaari Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
29/04	MPS/Atletico Malmi Finland Kolmonen	0-3	2-4	10	2	L

HPS II

WWLWWLDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	PPJ/Lauttasaari Finland Kolmonen	3-2	3-3	7	3	D
25/06	ToTe Finland Kolmonen	1-3	2-3	5	5	L
16/06	MPS/Atletico Malmi Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-2	3	6	L
11/06	Töölön Taisto Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-2	4	5	D
05/06	Valtti Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-3	8	0	L
28/05	Tips Vantaa Finland Kolmonen	2-1	5-1	5	4	W
22/05	LPS Helsinki Finland Kolmonen	2-3	4-3	8	3	W
14/05	VJS Vantaa II Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-2	11	1	L
08/05	PPS Finland Kolmonen	–	3-2	–	–	W
02/05	Atlantis FC/PM Finland Kolmonen	–	4-2	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Kontu vs HPS II?

According to our model, the most likely result is an HPS II win (45%). Probabilities: FC Kontu 35%, draw 21%, HPS II 45%.

How many goals are expected in FC Kontu vs HPS II?

The model expects 4.44 goals (FC Kontu 2.08 · HPS II 2.36), with a 51% chance of over 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Kontu vs HPS II?

The model gives a 64% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-2.