Prediction: IFK Mariehamn II vs LTU
Expected goals: 3.53 (IFK Mariehamn II 2.32 · LTU 1.21). The model gives 62% home, 20% draw, 18% away. Over 3.5 goals (50%) and both teams to score (57%). Most likely score: 2-1.
Recent form leaves IFK Mariehamn II with 8 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses over 10 games; LTU has piled up 3-1-6 in the same span. In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, IFK Mariehamn II won 0 and LTU 2.
| IFK Mariehamn II | Draw | LTU | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 21% | 18% |
| Market | 62% | 19% | 19% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours IFK Mariehamn II (rating 1568 vs 1468).
- H2H favours LTU: 2-0-0.
- High corners: 11 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| IFK Mariehamn II | LTU | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.7 / 1 | 0.8 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 100/0/0% | 22/33/44% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 4.3 | 3.4 / 6.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0 | 2.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · IFK Mariehamn II 0–0–2 LTU
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/25 Finland Kolmonen | IFK Mariehamn II | 2-3 | LTU |
| 03/05/25 Finland Kolmonen | LTU | 5-1 HT 1-1 | IFK Mariehamn II |
Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EuPa | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 8 | 25 |
| 2 | IFK Mariehamn II | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 10 | 21 |
| 3 | PIF Parainen | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 8 | 20 |
| 4 | KaaPo | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 20 | 18 |
| 5 | VG-62 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 12 | 18 |
| 6 | SalPa 2 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 14 | 17 |
| 7 | MaPS | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 20 | 16 |
| 8 | Peimari United | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 16 | 12 |
| 9 | LTU | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 10 |
| 10 | PiPS | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 22 | 8 |
| 11 | ACF | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 7 |
| 12 | JyTy | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 27 | 7 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | IFK Mariehamn II | LTU |
|---|---|---|
| EuPa | 2-1 W | 0-3 L |
| VG-62 | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Peimari United | 3-1 W | 1-0 W |
| KaaPo | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| PIF Parainen | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| MaPS | 2-3 L | 1-3 L |
| SalPa 2 | 4-1 W | 0-1 L |
| ACF | 5-1 W | 0-0 D |
| PiPS | 4-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 7 W 0 D 2 L | 3 W 1 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: IFK Mariehamn II (9 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
IFK Mariehamn II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | EuPa Finland Kolmonen |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 13/06 | VG-62 Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 06/06 | Peimari United Finland Kolmonen |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 23/05 | KaaPo Finland Kolmonen |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 16/05 | PIF Parainen Finland Kolmonen |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 09/05 | MaPS Finland Kolmonen |
– | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 02/05 | SalPa 2 Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 25/04 | ACF Finland Kolmonen |
– | 5-1 | – | – | W |
| 16/04 | PiPS Finland Kolmonen |
2-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 04/10 | PiPS Finland Kolmonen |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
LTU
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | VG-62 Finland Kolmonen |
2-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 13/06 | Peimari United Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 04/06 | JyTy Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 2-3 | 14 | 3 | L |
| 29/05 | KaaPo Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 22/05 | PIF Parainen Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 14/05 | MaPS Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 09/05 | SalPa 2 Finland Kolmonen |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 29/04 | ACF Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 24/04 | PiPS Finland Kolmonen |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 17/04 | EuPa Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in IFK Mariehamn II vs LTU?
According to our model, the most likely result is a IFK Mariehamn II win (62%). Probabilities: IFK Mariehamn II 62%, draw 20%, LTU 18%.
How many goals are expected in IFK Mariehamn II vs LTU?
The model expects 3.53 goals (IFK Mariehamn II 2.32 · LTU 1.21), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in IFK Mariehamn II vs LTU?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.