Prediction: Villan Pojat vs KePS
Expected goals: 3.85 (Villan Pojat 1.91 · KePS 1.93). The model gives 39% home, 22% draw, 39% away. Under 4 goals (54%) and both teams to score (61%). Most likely score: 1-1.
On recent form, Villan Pojat is 2-4-4 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and KePS 4-4-2 over its own. In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Villan Pojat won 0 and KePS 1, with 2 draws.
| Villan Pojat | Draw | KePS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 23% | 39% |
| Market | 39% | 21% | 40% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KePS (rating 1475 vs 1536).
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Villan Pojat | KePS | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 2 | 2.8 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 1.3 | 1 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/33/67% | 50/25/25% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 3.7 | 1.5 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.3 | 3.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Villan Pojat 0–2–1 KePS
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/25 Finland Kolmonen | Villan Pojat | 1-1 | KePS |
| 05/07/25 Finland Kolmonen | KePS | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Villan Pojat |
| 20/07/24 Finland Kolmonen | Villan Pojat | 2-2 HT 1-1 | KePS |
Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, North Group
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kajha | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 11 | 15 |
| 2 | HauPa | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 10 | 14 |
| 3 | KePS | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 13 | 14 |
| 4 | RoPo | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | Ajax Sarkkiranta | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 13 |
| 6 | KaPa Kajaani | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 11 | 10 |
| 7 | Villan Pojat | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 9 |
| 8 | Hercules-J | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 19 | 7 |
| 9 | Santa Claus | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 6 |
| 10 | PonPa | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 51 | 2 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Villan Pojat | KePS |
|---|---|---|
| HauPa | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| KaPa Kajaani | 0-5 L | 3-2 W |
| PonPa | 2-2 D | 11-0 W |
| Hercules-J | 3-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Ajax Sarkkiranta | 2-2 D | 0-3 L |
| Kajha | 1-0 W | 4-3 W |
| Santa Claus | 1-1 D | 4-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 2 L | 4 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: KePS (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Villan Pojat
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | HauPa Finland Kolmonen |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 13/06 | KaPa Kajaani Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 0-5 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 06/06 | PonPa Finland Kolmonen |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 28/05 | Hercules-J Finland Kolmonen |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | Ajax Sarkkiranta Finland Kolmonen |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 09/05 | Kajha Finland Kolmonen |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Santa Claus Finland Kolmonen |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 22/03 | Santa Claus Finland Cup |
1-2 | 0-2 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 27/09 | HauPa Finland Kolmonen |
– | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 20/09 | KePS Finland Kolmonen |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
KePS
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Kajha Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 4-3 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 24/06 | Santa Claus Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 18/06 | Ajax Sarkkiranta Finland Kolmonen |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 31/05 | HauPa Finland Kolmonen |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 23/05 | RoPo Finland Kolmonen |
– | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 16/05 | KaPa Kajaani Finland Kolmonen |
– | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 09/05 | PonPa Finland Kolmonen |
– | 11-0 | – | – | W |
| 03/05 | Hercules-J Finland Kolmonen |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 26/03 | RoPo Finland Cup |
2-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 20/09 | Villan Pojat Finland Kolmonen |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Villan Pojat vs KePS?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Villan Pojat win (39%). Probabilities: Villan Pojat 39%, draw 22%, KePS 39%.
How many goals are expected in Villan Pojat vs KePS?
The model expects 3.85 goals (Villan Pojat 1.91 · KePS 1.93), with a 54% chance of under 4 goals.
Will both teams score in Villan Pojat vs KePS?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.