Football · Finland Kolmonen · 12/07, 16:00

Prediction: KaPa Kajaani vs Ajax Sarkkiranta

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Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.23Total
KaPa Kajaani2.85
Ajax Sarkkiranta1.38
1X2
67% 17% 16%
KaPa Kajaani Draw Ajax Sarkkiranta
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
KaPa Kajaani 4-2-4 (W-D-L)
WDDLLWLWLW
Ajax Sarkkiranta 5-1-4 (W-D-L)
WLLLWDLWWW
Head-to-head
KaPa Kajaani 2–0 Ajax Sarkkiranta (2 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KaPa Kajaani 1540 · Ajax Sarkkiranta 1502
KaPa KajaaniDrawAjax Sarkkiranta
Our model67%17%16%
Market67%17%16%
Estimated total (ours) 4.23 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

  • H2H favours KaPa Kajaani: 2-0-0.
  • Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

KaPa KajaaniAjax Sarkkiranta
Goals for / against (FT)3.1 / 1.31.6 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)1 / 0.41 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)80/0/20%50/25/25%
Corners (HT / FT)4 / 7.31.3 / 2.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)4.5 / 02.5 / 0.3

Head-to-head (H2H) · KaPa Kajaani 200 Ajax Sarkkiranta

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DateHomeScoreAway
27/09/25
Finland Kolmonen
KaPa Kajaani5-0Ajax Sarkkiranta
12/07/25
Finland Kolmonen
Ajax Sarkkiranta0-3
HT 0-1
KaPa Kajaani

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, North Group

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Kajha 9603 351118
2 HauPa 8422 231014
3 KePS 9423 251514
4 RoPo 7412 17613
5 Ajax Sarkkiranta 7412 121213
6 Villan Pojat 8332 121312
7 KaPa Kajaani 8314 281110
8 Hercules-J 8314 112010
9 Santa Claus 8134 6276
10 PonPa 8026 7512

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentKaPa KajaaniAjax Sarkkiranta
PonPa 12-0 W 4-2 W
Hercules-J 2-3 L 2-1 W
Villan Pojat 5-0 W 2-2 D
Kajha 1-2 L 0-5 L
KePS 2-3 L 3-0 W
HauPa 0-1 L 0-2 L
RoPo 2-2 D 1-0 W
Record vs common 2 W 1 D 4 L 4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: KaPa Kajaani (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KaPa Kajaani

WDDLLWLWLW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
05/07 PonPa
Finland Kolmonen
12-0 W
27/06 Hercules-J
Finland Kolmonen
1-2 2-3 85 L
13/06 Villan Pojat
Finland Kolmonen
1-0 5-0 102 W
03/06 Kajha
Finland Kolmonen
1-0 1-2 67 L
23/05 Santa Claus
Finland Kolmonen
4-0 W
16/05 KePS
Finland Kolmonen
2-3 L
09/05 HauPa
Finland Kolmonen
0-1 L
25/04 RoPo
Finland Kolmonen
2-2 D
18/04 RoPo
Finland Cup
1-0 2-2 D
29/03 SC Zulimanit
Finland Cup
1-0 1-0 54 W

Ajax Sarkkiranta

WLLLWDLWWW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
27/06 PonPa
Finland Kolmonen
4-2 W
18/06 KePS
Finland Kolmonen
2-0 3-0 22 W
07/06 Hercules-J
Finland Kolmonen
1-0 2-1 25 W
21/05 HauPa
Finland Kolmonen
0-1 0-2 10 L
16/05 Villan Pojat
Finland Kolmonen
2-2 D
09/05 RoPo
Finland Kolmonen
1-0 W
25/04 Kajha
Finland Kolmonen
0-5 L
27/09 KaPa Kajaani
Finland Kolmonen
0-5 L
20/09 PonPa
Finland Kolmonen
1-2 L
11/09 Villan Pojat
Finland Kolmonen
1-1 3-2 64 W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KaPa Kajaani vs Ajax Sarkkiranta?

According to our model, the most likely result is a KaPa Kajaani win (67%). Probabilities: KaPa Kajaani 67%, draw 17%, Ajax Sarkkiranta 16%.

How many goals are expected in KaPa Kajaani vs Ajax Sarkkiranta?

The model expects 4.23 goals (KaPa Kajaani 2.85 · Ajax Sarkkiranta 1.38), with a 51% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in KaPa Kajaani vs Ajax Sarkkiranta?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.