Football · Finland Kolmonen · 31/07, 18:00

Prediction: MPS vs Gilla FC

Team pages: MPS · Gilla FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.49Total

MPS1.56

Gilla FC1.93

1X2

31% 22% 46%

MPS Draw Gilla FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

MPS 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLDWDLWL

Gilla FC 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWWDLLWL

Head-to-head

MPS 0–1–0 Gilla FC (1 last)

Gilla FC1-1MPS

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · MPS 1472 · Gilla FC 1464

	MPS	Draw	Gilla FC
Our model	31%	24%	46%
Market	32%	21%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 3.49 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	MPS	Gilla FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.7	2 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.2	1.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/22/56%	56/22/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.3	2 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.2	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.80

X4.20

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.93

Under 3.751.88

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
05:53 +13’	2.80	4.20	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · MPS 0–1–0 Gilla FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/04/26 Finland Kolmonen	Gilla FC	1-1 HT 1-1	MPS

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EIF Academy	12	9	1	2	50	19	28
2	ESPA	12	9	1	2	32	11	28
3	Poxyt	12	7	1	4	28	23	22
4	LePa	12	6	2	4	21	21	20
5	NuPS	12	5	4	3	22	14	19
6	LoPa	12	5	1	6	16	19	16
7	Gilla FC	12	4	2	6	25	26	14
8	MPS	12	3	3	6	10	19	12
9	PPJ/Ruoholahti	12	3	3	6	18	33	12
10	EPS Reservi	12	3	3	6	19	35	12
11	GrIFK Reservi	12	3	2	7	20	26	11
12	HooGee	12	3	1	8	18	33	10

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	MPS	Gilla FC
EIF Academy	0-4 L	1-3 L
Poxyt	3-2 W	1-2 L
NuPS	0-2 L	1-1 D
EPS Reservi	0-0 D	5-1 W
HooGee	2-0 W	6-3 W
PPJ/Ruoholahti	0-0 D	1-2 L
LePa	0-1 L	0-2 L
ESPA	0-4 L	1-6 L
LoPa	0-2 L	2-3 L
GrIFK Reservi	4-2 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 5 L	3 W 1 D 6 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

MPS

WLLLDWDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/07	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-4	5	4	L
28/06	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	1-2	3-2	6	2	W
17/06	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
14/06	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
05/06	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
28/05	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	10	0	D
22/05	LePa Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
15/05	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	0-4	0-4	2	1	L
08/05	LoPa Finland Kolmonen	–	0-2	–	–	L
03/05	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	3-1	4-2	4	3	W

Gilla FC

LLLWWDLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/07	LePa Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-2	8	1	L
01/07	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	3-2	6-3	6	1	W
23/06	LoPa Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-3	1	2	L
10/06	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-3	4	4	L
07/06	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-1	4	5	D
27/05	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-1	3	5	W
24/05	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	2-0	5-1	7	3	W
13/05	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	–	1-2	–	–	L
08/05	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-6	6	5	L
29/04	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	1-2	1-2	5	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in MPS vs Gilla FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Gilla FC win (46%). Probabilities: MPS 31%, draw 22%, Gilla FC 46%.

How many goals are expected in MPS vs Gilla FC?

The model expects 3.49 goals (MPS 1.56 · Gilla FC 1.93), with a 55% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in MPS vs Gilla FC?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.