Football · Uzbekistan 1st Division · 25/07, 17:00

Prediction: Kattaqorgon vs FC Yaypan Fergana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.6Total

Kattaqorgon1.56

FC Yaypan Fergana1.05

1X2

48% 27% 25%

Kattaqorgon Draw FC Yaypan Fergana

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Kattaqorgon 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDWWDLLDWL

FC Yaypan Fergana 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

DLLLWWLWLL

Head-to-head

Kattaqorgon 0–1 FC Yaypan Fergana (1 last)

FC Yaypan Fergana1-0Kattaqorgon

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kattaqorgon 1513 · FC Yaypan Fergana 1462

	Kattaqorgon	Draw	FC Yaypan Fergana
Our model	48%	28%	24%
Market	49%	26%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.6 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kattaqorgon (rating 1513 vs 1462).
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kattaqorgon	FC Yaypan Fergana
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 0.8	1.1 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.4	0.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	11/56/33%	0/70/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.9 / 3.7	2.6 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.40

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
11:56 +21’	1.85	3.40	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Kattaqorgon 0–0–1 FC Yaypan Fergana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/05/26 Uzbekistan Cup	FC Yaypan Fergana	1-0 HT 0-0	Kattaqorgon

Standings · Uzbekistan 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Orol Nukus	10	8	2	0	24	7	26
2	Shurtan	10	7	2	1	15	8	23
3	FC Lochin	10	6	3	1	19	7	21
4	Kattaqorgon	10	5	3	2	11	6	18
5	Gazalkent	11	5	3	3	17	14	18
6	Metallurg Bekabad	11	5	3	3	25	11	18
7	Fardu Ferghana	10	3	4	3	13	19	13
8	FC Yaypan Fergana	10	4	1	5	13	20	13
9	Olympic Mobiuz	10	3	3	4	18	13	12
10	Respublika FA	10	3	3	4	12	10	12
11	Jayxun	10	2	2	6	7	16	8
12	BuxDu	10	2	1	7	7	21	7
13	Pakhtakor Tashkent II	10	1	1	8	6	23	4
14	PFC Terdu	10	1	1	8	8	20	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kattaqorgon	FC Yaypan Fergana
Pakhtakor Tashkent	0-3 L	1-4 L
Olympic Mobiuz	0-0 D	1-6 L
BuxDu	1-0 W	1-2 L
Respublika FA	1-0 W	1-0 W
FK Orol Nukus	1-1 D	1-5 L
Gazalkent	2-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Kattaqorgon (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Kattaqorgon

WDWWDLLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/06	FC Lochin Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	0-2	3	2	L
04/06	Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	3-0	5	3	W
31/05	Metallurg Bekabad Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-1	1-1	1	2	D
27/05	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan Cup	0-1	0-3	1	0	L
18/05	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan Cup	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
04/05	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
30/04	BuxDu Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
26/04	Respublika FA Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	1-0	–	–	W
21/04	FK Orol Nukus Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
17/04	Gazalkent Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	2-0	4	6	W

FC Yaypan Fergana

DLLLWWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/06	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	1-6	7	5	L
05/06	BuxDu Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	1-2	12	4	L
31/05	Respublika FA Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
27/05	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan Cup	0-0	1-2	2	2	L
22/05	Pakhtakor Tashkent II Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
18/05	Kattaqorgon Uzbekistan Cup	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
13/05	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan Cup	0-1	1-4	4	2	L
06/05	FK Orol Nukus Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-3	1-5	1	2	L
30/04	Gazalkent Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-1	1-2	5	8	L
24/04	Shurtan Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-1	2-2	1	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kattaqorgon vs FC Yaypan Fergana?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Kattaqorgon win (48%). Probabilities: Kattaqorgon 48%, draw 27%, FC Yaypan Fergana 25%.

How many goals are expected in Kattaqorgon vs FC Yaypan Fergana?

The model expects 2.6 goals (Kattaqorgon 1.56 · FC Yaypan Fergana 1.05), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Kattaqorgon vs FC Yaypan Fergana?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.