Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B · 30/07, 22:30

Prediction: Atletico FC Guayaquil vs LDU Portoviejo

Team pages: Atletico FC Guayaquil · LDU Portoviejo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.16Total

Atletico FC Guayaquil1.41

LDU Portoviejo0.75

1X2

52% 28% 19%

Atletico FC Guayaquil Draw LDU Portoviejo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico FC Guayaquil 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DDWLDWWDWD

LDU Portoviejo 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDWWWLDLLW

Head-to-head

Atletico FC Guayaquil 0–1–0 LDU Portoviejo (1 last)

LDU Portoviejo1-1Atletico FC Guayaquil

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico FC Guayaquil 1537 · LDU Portoviejo 1498

	Atletico FC Guayaquil	Draw	LDU Portoviejo
Our model	52%	30%	19%
Market	53%	27%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.16 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico FC Guayaquil	LDU Portoviejo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/44/33%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 2.9	3.3 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0	6.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.30

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 1.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
19:04 +2’	1.70	3.30	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico FC Guayaquil 0–1–0 LDU Portoviejo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/05/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	LDU Portoviejo	1-1 HT 1-0	Atletico FC Guayaquil

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club 9 de Octubre	18	9	7	2	20	11	34
2	Independiente Juniors	18	8	7	3	20	11	31
3	Atletico FC Guayaquil	18	7	10	1	21	13	31
4	CD Cuenca Jrs	18	8	6	4	19	18	30
5	Vinotinto Ecuador	18	7	5	6	23	16	26
6	Cumbaya	18	5	8	5	19	16	23
7	LDU Portoviejo	18	6	4	8	15	21	22
8	San Antonio FC Cotacachi	18	4	9	5	20	20	21
9	Gualaceo SC	18	6	7	5	13	11	19
10	CD Vargas Torres	18	5	7	6	13	13	19
11	22 de Julio	18	4	3	11	9	23	9
12	El Nacional	18	0	5	13	10	29	2

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico FC Guayaquil	LDU Portoviejo
CD Cuenca Jrs	0-0 D	0-1 L
San Antonio FC Cotacachi	4-1 W	2-4 L
Independiente Juniors	0-0 D	0-1 L
El Nacional	3-0 W	1-0 W
Club 9 de Octubre	0-0 D	1-1 D
Vinotinto Ecuador	0-3 L	1-0 W
Gualaceo SC	2-1 W	1-0 W
CD Vargas Torres	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 4 D 1 L	4 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico FC Guayaquil (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Atletico FC Guayaquil

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
16/07	San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-1	4-1	2	6	W
11/07	Independiente Juniors Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
02/07	El Nacional Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	2-0	3-0	9	2	W
09/06	22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	–	1-0	–	–	W
03/06	Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
31/05	Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-2	0-3	6	2	L
22/05	Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	2-1	2-1	2	3	W
15/05	CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-1	1-1	1	2	D
08/05	LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-1	1-1	0	6	D

LDU Portoviejo

DDWWWLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	1-0	5	8	W
17/07	Independiente Juniors Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
09/07	CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-1	0-1	7	9	L
04/07	Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	1-1	1	8	D
10/06	San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-3	2-4	9	5	L
06/06	Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	1-0	10	9	W
31/05	El Nacional Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	1-0	5	7	W
23/05	Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	1-0	9	4	W
20/05	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador Cup	1-1	1-1	4	3	D
13/05	Cumbaya Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-1	1-1	5	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico FC Guayaquil vs LDU Portoviejo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico FC Guayaquil win (52%). Probabilities: Atletico FC Guayaquil 52%, draw 28%, LDU Portoviejo 19%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico FC Guayaquil vs LDU Portoviejo?

The model expects 2.16 goals (Atletico FC Guayaquil 1.41 · LDU Portoviejo 0.75), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico FC Guayaquil vs LDU Portoviejo?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.