Football · Uzbekistan 1st Division · 25/07, 14:30
Prediction: Fardu Ferghana vs FC Lochin
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.83Total
Fardu Ferghana1.54
FC Lochin1.3
1X2
Fardu Ferghana
Draw
FC Lochin
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Fardu Ferghana
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
FC Lochin
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Fardu Ferghana 1481 · FC Lochin 1546
| Fardu Ferghana | Draw | FC Lochin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| Market | 42% | 27% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.83 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Lochin (rating 1481 vs 1546).
- High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Fardu Ferghana | FC Lochin | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 2 | 1.7 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 1 | 0.7 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 25/13/63% | 50/33/17% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.3 | 2.5 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.3 | 4.3 / 0.2 |
Standings · Uzbekistan 1st Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Orol Nukus | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 24 | 7 | 26 |
| 2 | Shurtan | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 8 | 23 |
| 3 | FC Lochin | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 7 | 21 |
| 4 | Kattaqorgon | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 18 |
| 5 | Gazalkent | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 14 | 18 |
| 6 | Metallurg Bekabad | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 11 | 18 |
| 7 | Fardu Ferghana | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 19 | 13 |
| 8 | FC Yaypan Fergana | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 20 | 13 |
| 9 | Olympic Mobiuz | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 13 | 12 |
| 10 | Respublika FA | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 12 |
| 11 | Jayxun | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 8 |
| 12 | BuxDu | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 21 | 7 |
| 13 | Pakhtakor Tashkent II | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 23 | 4 |
| 14 | PFC Terdu | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 20 | 4 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Fardu Ferghana | FC Lochin |
|---|---|---|
| Kattaqorgon | 0-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Olympic Mobiuz | 2-1 W | 3-2 W |
| BuxDu | 1-1 D | 4-0 W |
| Respublika FA | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| FK Orol Nukus | 0-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Gazalkent | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| Shurtan | 2-2 D | 1-2 L |
| Jayxun | 4-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 4 D 2 L | 4 W 2 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Fardu Ferghana
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/06 | Metallurg Bekabad Uzbekistan 1st Division |
0-3 | 0-7 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 04/06 | Kattaqorgon Uzbekistan 1st Division |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 29/05 | Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 12/05 | Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 06/05 | BuxDu Uzbekistan 1st Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 4 | D |
| 01/05 | Respublika FA Uzbekistan 1st Division |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 26/04 | FK Orol Nukus Uzbekistan 1st Division |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 21/04 | Gazalkent Uzbekistan 1st Division |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 15/04 | Shurtan Uzbekistan 1st Division |
0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 12/04 | Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division |
1-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
FC Lochin
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division |
2-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 09/06 | Kattaqorgon Uzbekistan 1st Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 31/05 | BuxDu Uzbekistan 1st Division |
– | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 15/05 | Gazalkent Uzbekistan Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 05/05 | Respublika FA Uzbekistan 1st Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 01/05 | FK Orol Nukus Uzbekistan 1st Division |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 26/04 | Gazalkent Uzbekistan 1st Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 20/04 | Shurtan Uzbekistan 1st Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 16/04 | Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/04 | Pakhtakor Tashkent II Uzbekistan 1st Division |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Fardu Ferghana vs FC Lochin?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Fardu Ferghana win (42%). Probabilities: Fardu Ferghana 42%, draw 27%, FC Lochin 31%.
How many goals are expected in Fardu Ferghana vs FC Lochin?
The model expects 2.83 goals (Fardu Ferghana 1.54 · FC Lochin 1.3), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Fardu Ferghana vs FC Lochin?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.