Football · Finland Kolmonen · 01/08, 11:00

Prediction: Gnistan/Ogeli vs TiPS U21

Team pages: Gnistan/Ogeli · TiPS U21

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.86Total

Gnistan/Ogeli2.44

TiPS U211.42

1X2

59% 20% 21%

Gnistan/Ogeli Draw TiPS U21

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Gnistan/Ogeli 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDWLLDWLLL

TiPS U21 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WLDLLLLWLL

Head-to-head

Gnistan/Ogeli 0–1–0 TiPS U21 (1 last)

TiPS U211-1Gnistan/Ogeli

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gnistan/Ogeli 1442 · TiPS U21 1417

	Gnistan/Ogeli	Draw	TiPS U21
Our model	59%	20%	21%
Market	60%	19%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.86 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gnistan/Ogeli	TiPS U21
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.8	1.1 / 2.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.1	0.7 / 1.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/13/63%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4	2.5 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.3	2.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.75

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.95

2 (+1.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 41.88

Under 41.93

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 4.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
04:06 +11’	1.50	4.75	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Gnistan/Ogeli 0–1–0 TiPS U21

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/04/26 Finland Kolmonen	TiPS U21	1-1 HT 0-0	Gnistan/Ogeli

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Futura	12	11	1	0	45	8	34
2	Sibbov	10	7	1	2	29	19	22
3	FC Lahti II	10	6	2	2	17	11	20
4	RiPS	11	6	1	4	25	22	19
5	JäPS/47	10	5	2	3	23	15	17
6	Atlantis II	11	5	2	4	24	17	17
7	TuPS	12	4	1	7	20	17	13
8	Gnistan/Ogeli	11	2	3	6	15	29	9
9	Ponnistus	11	2	2	7	14	34	8
10	ToTe/Tapio	11	1	3	7	13	33	6
11	TiPS U21	11	1	2	8	11	31	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gnistan/Ogeli	TiPS U21
JäPS/47	1-3 L	0-4 L
FC Lahti II	0-2 L	0-4 L
Atlantis II	1-1 D	3-2 W
Sibbov	1-3 L	2-4 L
TuPS	0-5 L	0-4 L
ToTe/Tapio	5-1 W	1-1 D
MK United	2-2 D	2-1 W
RiPS	1-2 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 5 L	2 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Gnistan/Ogeli (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Gnistan/Ogeli

LDWLLDWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/07	JäPS/47 Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-3	3	2	L
02/07	FC Lahti II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
27/06	FC Futura Finland Kolmonen	–	0-8	–	–	L
12/06	Ponnistus Finland Kolmonen	–	3-1	–	–	W
07/06	Atlantis II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
30/05	Sibbov Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-3	6	3	L
23/05	TuPS Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-5	3	2	L
15/05	ToTe/Tapio Finland Kolmonen	2-1	5-1	–	–	W
08/05	MK United Finland Kolmonen	2-2	2-2	2	6	D
03/05	RiPS Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-2	4	3	L

TiPS U21

WLDLLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/07	JaPS U21 Finland U21 League	0-1	1-2	1	3	L
26/07	FC Honka U21 Finland U21 League	1-1	1-2	5	3	L
23/07	Atlantis II Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-2	11	2	W
02/07	TuPS Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-4	2	1	L
17/06	RiPS Finland Kolmonen	1-3	1-4	1	0	L
11/06	JäPS/47 Finland Kolmonen	0-3	0-4	2	1	L
05/06	FC Lahti II Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-4	2	2	L
28/05	ToTe/Tapio Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-1	3	5	D
23/05	Sibbov Finland Kolmonen	2-4	2-4	13	6	L
14/05	MK United Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-1	2	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gnistan/Ogeli vs TiPS U21?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gnistan/Ogeli win (59%). Probabilities: Gnistan/Ogeli 59%, draw 20%, TiPS U21 21%.

How many goals are expected in Gnistan/Ogeli vs TiPS U21?

The model expects 3.86 goals (Gnistan/Ogeli 2.44 · TiPS U21 1.42), with a 53% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Gnistan/Ogeli vs TiPS U21?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.