Football · Finland Kolmonen · 03/09, 19:00

Prediction: TuPS vs FC Lahti II

Team pages: TuPS · FC Lahti II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.75Total

TuPS2.24

FC Lahti II1.52

1X2

53% 21% 25%

TuPS Draw FC Lahti II

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

TuPS 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLDWLLWLLW

FC Lahti II 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

WWLDWDDDDD

Head-to-head

TuPS 0–1–2 FC Lahti II (3 last)

FC Lahti II2-1TuPS
FC Lahti II2-1TuPS
TuPS1-1FC Lahti II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · TuPS 1480 · FC Lahti II 1529

	TuPS	Draw	FC Lahti II
Our model	53%	22%	25%
Market	54%	21%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.75 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Lahti II (rating 1480 vs 1529).
H2H favours FC Lahti II: 2-1-0.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	TuPS	FC Lahti II
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 2	1.9 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1	1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	44/11/44%	43/29/29%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.2	3 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.1	3.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.67

X4.33

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.80

Under 3.52.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
05:12 +4’	1.67	4.33	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · TuPS 0–1–2 FC Lahti II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	FC Lahti II	2-1 HT 1-1	TuPS
04/10/25 Finland Kolmonen	FC Lahti II	2-1	TuPS
03/07/25 Finland Kolmonen	TuPS	1-1 HT 1-0	FC Lahti II

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Futura	17	14	2	1	57	15	44
2	Sibbov	14	10	2	2	56	24	32
3	JäPS/47	15	9	3	3	38	20	30
4	RiPS	16	8	2	6	32	29	26
5	FC Lahti II	15	6	7	2	25	19	25
6	TuPS	16	6	1	9	32	26	19
7	Atlantis II	15	5	3	7	29	45	18
8	Gnistan/Ogeli	15	4	3	8	23	38	15
9	Ponnistus	16	4	3	9	23	43	15
10	ToTe/Tapio	16	2	4	10	20	46	10
11	TiPS U21	15	1	2	12	13	43	5

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	TuPS	FC Lahti II
Gnistan/Ogeli	4-1 W	2-0 W
JäPS/47	1-3 L	3-3 D
RiPS	0-3 L	2-2 D
Atlantis II	7-2 W	1-1 D
FC Futura	0-1 L	1-4 L
ToTe/Tapio	1-3 L	0-0 D
TiPS U21	4-0 W	4-0 W
Ponnistus	0-0 D	2-2 D
Sibbov	3-6 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 5 L	2 W 6 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Lahti II (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

TuPS

WLDWLLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Gnistan/Ogeli Finland Kolmonen	2-0	4-1	10	0	W
20/08	JäPS/47 Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-3	2	2	L
14/08	RiPS Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-3	2	1	L
05/08	Atlantis II Finland Kolmonen	2-0	7-2	7	1	W
30/07	FC Futura Finland Kolmonen	–	0-1	–	–	L
24/07	ToTe/Tapio Finland Kolmonen	0-3	1-3	3	6	L
02/07	TiPS U21 Finland Kolmonen	2-0	4-0	3	1	W
27/06	Ponnistus Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
17/06	Sibbov Finland Kolmonen	1-3	3-6	7	3	L
05/06	MK United Finland Kolmonen	1-0	5-1	7	3	W

FC Lahti II

WWLDWDDDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	ToTe/Tapio Finland Kolmonen	–	0-0	–	–	D
21/08	RiPS Finland Kolmonen	2-1	2-2	3	5	D
14/08	Ponnistus Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-2	4	4	D
07/08	JäPS/47 Finland Kolmonen	–	3-3	–	–	D
01/08	Atlantis II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-1	9	0	D
02/07	Gnistan/Ogeli Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
24/06	Sibbov Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-2	6	6	D
12/06	FC Futura Finland Kolmonen	–	1-4	–	–	L
05/06	TiPS U21 Finland Kolmonen	2-0	4-0	7	2	W
29/05	TuPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-1	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in TuPS vs FC Lahti II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a TuPS win (53%). Probabilities: TuPS 53%, draw 21%, FC Lahti II 25%.

How many goals are expected in TuPS vs FC Lahti II?

The model expects 3.75 goals (TuPS 2.24 · FC Lahti II 1.52), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in TuPS vs FC Lahti II?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.