Football · Finland Kolmonen · 30/07, 18:00

Prediction: TP-T vs Fish United

Team pages: TP-T · Fish United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.72Total

TP-T2.38

Fish United1.34

1X2

60% 20% 20%

TP-T Draw Fish United

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

TP-T 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLDWLWWL

Fish United 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLDLW

Head-to-head

TP-T 0–1–0 Fish United (1 last)

Fish United2-2TP-T

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · TP-T 1492 · Fish United 1430

	TP-T	Draw	Fish United
Our model	60%	21%	20%
Market	60%	20%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.72 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours TP-T (rating 1492 vs 1430).
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	TP-T	Fish United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.9	1 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.5 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	38/25/38%	25/25/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.8	2.6 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.50

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.00

2 (+1.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.85

Under 3.751.95

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
04:04 +3’	1.50	4.50	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · TP-T 0–1–0 Fish United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/04/26 Finland Kolmonen	Fish United	2-2 HT 0-2	TP-T

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Lasten	12	11	1	0	49	10	34
2	TPV II	12	9	1	2	28	14	28
3	Tampere Utd II	13	8	3	2	24	14	27
4	NoPS	12	7	2	3	36	16	23
5	Ylojarvi United	12	7	1	4	27	18	22
6	FC LeKi	11	5	1	5	23	21	16
7	FC Haka Juniors	13	5	1	7	27	32	16
8	Saaksjærven Loiske	12	4	2	6	17	30	14
9	TP-T	11	3	2	6	18	24	11
10	Fish United	12	3	2	7	14	27	11
11	ACE	12	1	1	10	18	39	4
12	TP-49	12	0	1	11	8	44	1

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	TP-T	Fish United
TPV II	0-3 L	1-2 L
FC LeKi	2-0 W	1-2 L
ACE	2-1 W	5-2 W
Tampere Utd II	0-2 L	0-2 L
Ylojarvi United	3-1 W	0-4 L
NoPS	2-2 D	1-3 L
Saaksjærven Loiske	1-2 L	0-0 D
FC Haka Juniors	1-3 L	0-3 L
TP-49	4-1 W	2-0 W
FC Lasten	2-4 L	0-6 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 5 L	2 W 1 D 7 L

Better against common opponents: TP-T (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

TP-T

LWLLDWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/07	TPV II Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-3	4	7	L
17/07	FC LeKi Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	4	6	W
03/07	ACE Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-1	6	1	W
27/06	Tampere Utd II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	1	3	L
11/06	Ylojarvi United Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-1	6	5	W
05/06	NoPS Finland Kolmonen	–	2-2	–	–	D
28/05	Saaksjærven Loiske Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-2	2	3	L
14/05	FC Haka Juniors Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-3	6	2	L
09/05	TP-49 Finland Kolmonen	–	4-1	–	–	W
29/04	FC Lasten Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-4	1	10	L

Fish United

WLLLLLLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	ACE Finland Kolmonen	3-2	5-2	9	5	W
02/07	Ylojarvi United Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-4	3	5	L
24/06	Saaksjærven Loiske Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
11/06	FC Haka Juniors Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-3	6	3	L
04/06	FC Lasten Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-6	4	1	L
28/05	TPV II Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-2	4	5	L
22/05	Tampere Utd II Finland Kolmonen	–	0-2	–	–	L
14/05	NoPS Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-3	4	4	L
08/05	FC LeKi Finland Kolmonen	–	1-2	–	–	L
28/04	TP-49 Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	7	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in TP-T vs Fish United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a TP-T win (60%). Probabilities: TP-T 60%, draw 20%, Fish United 20%.

How many goals are expected in TP-T vs Fish United?

The model expects 3.72 goals (TP-T 2.38 · Fish United 1.34), with a 51% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in TP-T vs Fish United?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.