Football · Finland Kolmonen · 30/07, 19:00

Prediction: FC Lasten vs TPV II

Team pages: FC Lasten · TPV II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.81Total

FC Lasten2.52

TPV II1.29

1X2

64% 19% 18%

FC Lasten Draw TPV II

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Lasten 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWWD

TPV II 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWWWLWWW

Head-to-head

FC Lasten 3–0 TPV II (3 last)

TPV II0-1FC Lasten
TPV II0-1FC Lasten
FC Lasten2-1TPV II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Lasten 1649 · TPV II 1564

	FC Lasten	Draw	TPV II
Our model	63%	19%	17%
Market	64%	18%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.81 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Lasten (rating 1649 vs 1564).
H2H favours FC Lasten: 3-0-0.
High corners: 13 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Lasten	TPV II
Goals for / against (FT)	4.4 / 0.8	2.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	2.3 / 0.6	1.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	78/11/11%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.9 / 6.2	3.3 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0	4.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.40

X5.00

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)2.00

2 (+1.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.85

Under 3.751.95

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 4.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
04:02 +5’	1.40	5.00	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Lasten 3–0–0 TPV II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/04/26 Finland Kolmonen	TPV II	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Lasten
18/09/25 Finland Kolmonen	TPV II	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Lasten
12/06/25 Finland Kolmonen	FC Lasten	2-1	TPV II

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Lasten	12	11	1	0	49	10	34
2	TPV II	12	9	1	2	28	14	28
3	Tampere Utd II	13	8	3	2	24	14	27
4	NoPS	12	7	2	3	36	16	23
5	Ylojarvi United	12	7	1	4	27	18	22
6	FC LeKi	11	5	1	5	23	21	16
7	FC Haka Juniors	13	5	1	7	27	32	16
8	Saaksjærven Loiske	12	4	2	6	17	30	14
9	TP-T	11	3	2	6	18	24	11
10	Fish United	12	3	2	7	14	27	11
11	ACE	12	1	1	10	18	39	4
12	TP-49	12	0	1	11	8	44	1

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Lasten	TPV II
Tampere Utd II	1-1 D	3-2 W
NoPS	1-0 W	5-1 W
FC LeKi	3-1 W	2-4 L
TP-49	4-0 W	3-0 W
Fish United	6-0 W	2-1 W
ACE	6-2 W	2-1 W
Ylojarvi United	4-0 W	2-2 D
Saaksjærven Loiske	10-1 W	1-0 W
FC Haka Juniors	5-2 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	8 W 1 D 0 L	7 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Lasten (7 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Lasten

WWWWWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Tampere Utd II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-1	8	3	D
04/07	NoPS Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-0	8	5	W
25/06	FC LeKi Finland Kolmonen	2-1	3-1	9	5	W
17/06	Tampere Utd II Finland Kolmonen	2-0	4-1	3	6	W
12/06	TP-49 Finland Kolmonen	–	4-0	–	–	W
04/06	Fish United Finland Kolmonen	2-0	6-0	3	1	W
29/05	ACE Finland Kolmonen	4-2	6-2	4	7	W
21/05	Ylojarvi United Finland Kolmonen	2-0	4-0	5	5	W
16/05	Saaksjærven Loiske Finland Kolmonen	6-1	10-1	6	4	W
07/05	FC Haka Juniors Finland Kolmonen	3-0	5-2	10	3	W

TPV II

WWDWWWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/07	TP-T Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-0	2	7	W
04/07	Tampere Utd II Finland Kolmonen	3-1	3-2	1	6	W
24/06	NoPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	5-1	8	4	W
12/06	FC LeKi Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-4	3	2	L
03/06	TP-49 Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-0	15	8	W
28/05	Fish United Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-1	4	5	W
20/05	ACE Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-1	8	2	W
14/05	Ylojarvi United Finland Kolmonen	1-2	2-2	5	4	D
06/05	Saaksjærven Loiske Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-0	10	1	W
28/04	FC Haka Juniors Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-1	12	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Lasten vs TPV II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Lasten win (64%). Probabilities: FC Lasten 64%, draw 19%, TPV II 18%.

How many goals are expected in FC Lasten vs TPV II?

The model expects 3.81 goals (FC Lasten 2.52 · TPV II 1.29), with a 51% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Lasten vs TPV II?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.