Football · Finland Kolmonen · 01/08, 13:30

Prediction: Ylojarvi United vs FC LeKi

Team pages: Ylojarvi United · FC LeKi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.11Total

Ylojarvi United2.58

FC LeKi1.53

1X2

60% 19% 21%

Ylojarvi United Draw FC LeKi

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Ylojarvi United 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLDLWLLWWW

FC LeKi 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LWWLLWLWLW

Head-to-head

Ylojarvi United 1–0 FC LeKi (1 last)

FC LeKi0-1Ylojarvi United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ylojarvi United 1528 · FC LeKi 1479

	Ylojarvi United	Draw	FC LeKi
Our model	59%	19%	21%
Market	60%	19%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 4.11 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ylojarvi United (rating 1528 vs 1479).
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ylojarvi United	FC LeKi
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.8	1.8 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.6	1.1 / 1.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	71/0/29%	43/0/57%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5	3 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	3.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.75

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.98

2 (+1.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 41.95

Under 41.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 4.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
04:06 +12’	1.50	4.75	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ylojarvi United 1–0–0 FC LeKi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/04/26 Finland Kolmonen	FC LeKi	0-1 HT 0-0	Ylojarvi United

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Lasten	13	12	1	0	52	11	37
2	TPV II	13	9	1	3	29	17	28
3	Tampere Utd II	13	8	3	2	24	14	27
4	NoPS	12	7	2	3	36	16	23
5	Ylojarvi United	12	7	1	4	27	18	22
6	FC LeKi	11	5	1	5	23	21	16
7	FC Haka Juniors	13	5	1	7	27	32	16
8	TP-T	12	4	2	6	22	25	14
9	Saaksjærven Loiske	12	4	2	6	17	30	14
10	Fish United	13	3	2	8	15	31	11
11	ACE	12	1	1	10	18	39	4
12	TP-49	12	0	1	11	8	44	1

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ylojarvi United	FC LeKi
TP-49	5-0 W	2-1 W
Fish United	4-0 W	2-1 W
TP-T	1-3 L	0-2 L
Saaksjærven Loiske	0-4 L	3-1 W
FC Haka Juniors	4-2 W	4-1 W
FC Lasten	0-4 L	1-3 L
TPV II	2-2 D	4-2 W
Tampere Utd II	0-1 L	1-2 L
NoPS	3-1 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 4 L	5 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FC LeKi (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Ylojarvi United

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	TP-49 Finland Kolmonen	–	5-0	–	–	W
02/07	Fish United Finland Kolmonen	1-0	4-0	9	5	W
25/06	ACE Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-1	9	2	W
11/06	TP-T Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-3	2	5	L
05/06	Saaksjærven Loiske Finland Kolmonen	–	0-4	–	–	L
28/05	FC Haka Juniors Finland Kolmonen	2-0	4-2	4	2	W
21/05	FC Lasten Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-4	4	5	L
14/05	TPV II Finland Kolmonen	2-1	2-2	4	4	D
09/05	Tampere Utd II Finland Kolmonen	–	0-1	–	–	L
02/05	NoPS Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-1	3	1	W

FC LeKi

LWWLLWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	Saaksjærven Loiske Finland Kolmonen	2-1	3-1	2	3	W
17/07	TP-T Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	3	6	L
03/07	FC Haka Juniors Finland Kolmonen	2-1	4-1	9	2	W
25/06	FC Lasten Finland Kolmonen	1-2	1-3	5	5	L
12/06	TPV II Finland Kolmonen	1-0	4-2	13	2	W
06/06	Tampere Utd II Finland Kolmonen	1-2	1-2	3	3	L
29/05	NoPS Finland Kolmonen	–	0-2	–	–	L
16/05	TP-49 Finland Kolmonen	–	2-1	–	–	W
08/05	Fish United Finland Kolmonen	–	2-1	–	–	W
29/04	VPS Vaasa Finland Cup	1-4	1-9	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ylojarvi United vs FC LeKi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ylojarvi United win (60%). Probabilities: Ylojarvi United 60%, draw 19%, FC LeKi 21%.

How many goals are expected in Ylojarvi United vs FC LeKi?

The model expects 4.11 goals (Ylojarvi United 2.58 · FC LeKi 1.53), with a 51% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Ylojarvi United vs FC LeKi?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.