Football · Finland Kolmonen · 19/08, 19:00

Prediction: TPV II vs Ylojarvi United

Team pages: TPV II · Ylojarvi United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.92Total

TPV II2.28

Ylojarvi United1.64

1X2

52% 21% 27%

TPV II Draw Ylojarvi United

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

TPV II 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLWWWLWW

Ylojarvi United 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLWWWDLL

Head-to-head

TPV II 1–1–1 Ylojarvi United (3 last)

Ylojarvi United2-2TPV II
TPV II0-3Ylojarvi United
Ylojarvi United2-3TPV II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · TPV II 1567 · Ylojarvi United 1499

	TPV II	Draw	Ylojarvi United
Our model	51%	22%	27%
Market	52%	21%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.92 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours TPV II (rating 1567 vs 1499).
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	TPV II	Ylojarvi United
Goals for / against (FT)	2.8 / 1.3	1.9 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	67/22/11%	43/14/43%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6.4	3.3 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.1	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.73

X4.33

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.98

Under 3.751.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 4.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
02:51 +9’	1.73	4.33	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · TPV II 1–1–1 Ylojarvi United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	Ylojarvi United	2-2 HT 2-1	TPV II
28/08/25 Finland Kolmonen	TPV II	0-3 HT 0-0	Ylojarvi United
20/05/25 Finland Kolmonen	Ylojarvi United	2-3 HT 0-1	TPV II

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Lasten	15	14	1	0	57	12	43
2	TPV II	15	11	1	3	36	18	34
3	Tampere Utd II	15	10	3	2	29	14	33
4	NoPS	15	10	2	3	44	17	32
5	Ylojarvi United	15	7	2	6	29	26	23
6	FC LeKi	14	6	2	6	31	27	20
7	TP-T	14	5	2	7	33	30	17
8	FC Haka Juniors	15	5	1	9	28	39	16
9	Saaksjærven Loiske	15	4	2	9	18	36	14
10	Fish United	15	3	2	10	19	42	11
11	ACE	15	3	1	11	28	43	10
12	TP-49	15	1	1	13	16	64	4

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	TPV II	Ylojarvi United
Saaksjærven Loiske	2-1 W	0-4 L
FC Haka Juniors	5-0 W	4-2 W
FC Lasten	1-3 L	0-4 L
TP-T	3-0 W	1-3 L
Tampere Utd II	3-2 W	0-3 L
NoPS	5-1 W	1-4 L
FC LeKi	2-4 L	1-1 D
TP-49	3-0 W	5-0 W
Fish United	2-1 W	4-0 W
ACE	2-1 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	8 W 0 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: TPV II (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

TPV II

WWWLWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Saaksjærven Loiske Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-1	8	2	W
07/08	FC Haka Juniors Finland Kolmonen	–	5-0	–	–	W
30/07	FC Lasten Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-3	9	7	L
22/07	TP-T Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-0	2	7	W
04/07	Tampere Utd II Finland Kolmonen	3-1	3-2	1	6	W
24/06	NoPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	5-1	8	4	W
12/06	FC LeKi Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-4	3	2	L
03/06	TP-49 Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-0	15	8	W
28/05	Fish United Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-1	4	5	W
20/05	ACE Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-1	8	2	W

Ylojarvi United

LWLLWWWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Tampere Utd II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-3	1	2	L
07/08	NoPS Finland Kolmonen	–	1-4	–	–	L
01/08	FC LeKi Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
25/07	TP-49 Finland Kolmonen	–	5-0	–	–	W
02/07	Fish United Finland Kolmonen	1-0	4-0	9	5	W
25/06	ACE Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-1	9	2	W
11/06	TP-T Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-3	2	5	L
05/06	Saaksjærven Loiske Finland Kolmonen	–	0-4	–	–	L
28/05	FC Haka Juniors Finland Kolmonen	2-0	4-2	4	2	W
21/05	FC Lasten Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-4	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in TPV II vs Ylojarvi United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a TPV II win (52%). Probabilities: TPV II 52%, draw 21%, Ylojarvi United 27%.

How many goals are expected in TPV II vs Ylojarvi United?

The model expects 3.92 goals (TPV II 2.28 · Ylojarvi United 1.64), with a 51% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in TPV II vs Ylojarvi United?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.