Football · Finland Kolmonen · 02/09, 18:45

Prediction: TPV II vs Fish United

Team pages: TPV II · Fish United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.7Total

TPV II3.35

Fish United1.35

1X2

83% 10% 7%

TPV II Draw Fish United

Markets

Over 4.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

3-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

TPV II 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWWLWWWW

Fish United 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLDLWLLLLL

Head-to-head

TPV II 1–0 Fish United (1 last)

Fish United1-2TPV II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · TPV II 1589 · Fish United 1385

	TPV II	Draw	Fish United
Our model	75%	14%	11%
Market	89%	7%	4%

Estimated total (ours) 4.7 goals · Bet365 line 4.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours TPV II (rating 1589 vs 1385).
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	TPV II	Fish United
Goals for / against (FT)	3.1 / 1.5	1.1 / 4.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.7	0.5 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	56/22/22%	13/38/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.7	1.8 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.1	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.04

X13.00

226.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-3.75)1.85

2 (+3.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 4.751.88

Under 4.751.93

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 5.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.04 → 1.04	Bet365 1.04
X	13.00 → 13.00	Bet365 13.00
2	26.00 → 26.00	Bet365 26.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
05:59 +7’	1.04	13.00	26.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · TPV II 1–0–0 Fish United

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
28/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	Fish United	1-2 HT 0-2	TPV II

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 2

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Lasten	17	16	1	0	66	14	49
2	TPV II	17	13	1	3	43	22	40
3	Tampere Utd II	17	12	3	2	38	15	39
4	NoPS	17	12	2	3	56	18	38
5	TP-T	16	7	2	7	42	30	23
6	FC LeKi	16	7	2	7	37	31	23
7	Ylojarvi United	17	7	2	8	33	36	23
8	Saaksjærven Loiske	17	5	2	10	22	41	17
9	FC Haka Juniors	17	5	1	11	29	49	16
10	Fish United	17	3	2	12	20	56	11
11	ACE	17	3	1	13	29	48	10
12	TP-49	17	1	1	15	19	74	4

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	TPV II	Fish United
ACE	2-1 W	5-2 W
Ylojarvi United	5-3 W	0-4 L
Saaksjærven Loiske	2-1 W	0-0 D
FC Haka Juniors	5-0 W	0-3 L
FC Lasten	1-3 L	0-6 L
TP-T	3-0 W	1-4 L
Tampere Utd II	3-2 W	1-6 L
NoPS	5-1 W	0-8 L
FC LeKi	2-4 L	1-5 L
TP-49	3-0 W	3-6 L
Record vs common	8 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 8 L

Better against common opponents: TPV II (9 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

TPV II

WLWWWLWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	ACE Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-1	4	3	W
19/08	Ylojarvi United Finland Kolmonen	3-1	5-3	1	7	W
14/08	Saaksjærven Loiske Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-1	8	2	W
07/08	FC Haka Juniors Finland Kolmonen	–	5-0	–	–	W
30/07	FC Lasten Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-3	9	7	L
22/07	TP-T Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-0	2	7	W
04/07	Tampere Utd II Finland Kolmonen	3-1	3-2	1	6	W
24/06	NoPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	5-1	8	4	W
12/06	FC LeKi Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-4	3	2	L
03/06	TP-49 Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-0	15	8	W

Fish United

LLDLWLLLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/08	Tampere Utd II Finland Kolmonen	0-3	1-6	4	3	L
20/08	NoPS Finland Kolmonen	0-3	0-8	3	3	L
13/08	FC LeKi Finland Kolmonen	–	1-5	–	–	L
05/08	TP-49 Finland Kolmonen	–	3-6	–	–	L
30/07	TP-T Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-4	4	4	L
23/07	ACE Finland Kolmonen	3-2	5-2	9	5	W
02/07	Ylojarvi United Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-4	3	5	L
24/06	Saaksjærven Loiske Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
11/06	FC Haka Juniors Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-3	6	3	L
04/06	FC Lasten Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-6	4	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in TPV II vs Fish United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a TPV II win (83%). Probabilities: TPV II 83%, draw 10%, Fish United 7%.

How many goals are expected in TPV II vs Fish United?

The model expects 4.7 goals (TPV II 3.35 · Fish United 1.35), with a 52% chance of under 4.75 goals.

Will both teams score in TPV II vs Fish United?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.